Wind Advisory 3, NWS Buffalo, NY

306 
WWUS71 KBUF 161356
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
856 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-170000-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0003.250217T0000Z-250217T2300Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-
Lewis-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, Newark,
Fair Haven, Oswego, Watertown, Lowville, Buffalo, Batavia,
Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville,
Orchard Park, and Springville
856 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM 
EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected.

* WHERE...All of western and north central New York.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high 
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Apffel

323 
WWUS71 KBUF 161801
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
101 PM EST Sun Feb 16 2025

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-170515-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0003.250217T0000Z-250217T2300Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-
Lewis-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, Newark,
Fair Haven, Oswego, Watertown, Lowville, Buffalo, Batavia,
Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville,
Orchard Park, and Springville
101 PM EST Sun Feb 16 2025

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM 
EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected.

* WHERE...All of western and north central New York. Highest gusts 
  will be along the Lake Ontario shoreline and across higher 
  elevations.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

The gusty winds will also produce areas of blowing snow at some 
locations.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high 
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Apffel

698 
WWUS71 KBUF 170240
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
940 PM EST Sun Feb 16 2025

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-171200-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-250217T2300Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-
Lewis-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, Newark,
Fair Haven, Oswego, Watertown, Lowville, Buffalo, Batavia,
Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville,
Orchard Park, and Springville
940 PM EST Sun Feb 16 2025

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 50 to 55 mph.

* WHERE...All of western and north central New York. Highest gusts 
  will be along the Lake Ontario shoreline and across higher 
  elevations.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. The 
  gusty winds will also produce areas of blowing snow at some 
  locations.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high 
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

JJR

951 
WWUS71 KBUF 170748
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
248 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2025

NYZ006>008-010>014-019>021-085-171600-
/O.NEW.KBUF.CW.Y.0002.250218T0300Z-250218T1500Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-250217T2300Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-
Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, Lowville, Buffalo,
Batavia, Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, Jamestown, Olean,
Wellsville, Orchard Park, and Springville
248 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2025

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM 
EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...For the Wind Advisory, west winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts 
  40 to 50 mph. For the Cold Weather Advisory, bitterly cold wind 
  chills as low as 20 below zero expected.

* WHERE...Erie, Oswego, Jefferson, Lewis, Genesee, Wyoming, 
  Livingston, Ontario, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Allegany 
  Counties.

* WHEN...For the Wind Advisory, until 6 PM EST this evening. For the 
  Cold Weather Advisory, from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST 
  Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. 
  Bitterly cold wind chills as low as 25 below zero will cause 
  frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high 
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

This is a potentially hazardous situation to be outdoors. If you 
must be outside, be sure to cover all exposed skin. Frostbite can 
occur in 30 minutes or less with apparent temperatures of 15 below 
zero or colder.

&&

$$

NYZ001>005-171600-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-250217T2300Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, Newark,
and Fair Haven
248 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2025

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts 40 to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, and Northern Cayuga 
  Counties.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high 
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

AR

173 
WWUS71 KBUF 171419
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
919 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2025

NYZ006>008-010>014-019>021-085-180000-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-250217T2300Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.CW.Y.0002.250218T0300Z-250218T1500Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-
Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, Lowville, Buffalo,
Batavia, Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, Jamestown, Olean,
Wellsville, Orchard Park, and Springville
919 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2025

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING 
TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...For the Wind Advisory, west winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts 
  40 to 50 mph causing areas of blowing snow. For the Cold Weather 
  Advisory, bitterly cold wind chills as low as 20 below zero 
  expected.

* WHERE...Erie, Oswego, Jefferson, Lewis, Genesee, Wyoming, 
  Livingston, Ontario, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Allegany 
  Counties. Highest gusts will be along the Lake Ontario shoreline 
  and across higher elevations.

* WHEN...For the Wind Advisory, until 6 PM EST this evening. For the 
  Cold Weather Advisory, from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST 
  Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. 
  Bitterly cold wind chills as low as 25 below zero will cause 
  frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high 
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

This is a potentially hazardous situation to be outdoors. If you 
must be outside, be sure to cover all exposed skin. Frostbite can 
occur in 30 minutes or less with apparent temperatures of 15 below 
zero or colder.

&&

$$

NYZ001>005-172300-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-250217T2300Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, Newark,
and Fair Haven
919 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2025

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts 40 to 50 mph causing 
  areas of blowing snow.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, and Northern Cayuga 
  Counties. Highest gusts will be near the Lake Ontario shoreline.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high 
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Apffel

089 
WWUS71 KBUF 171834
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
134 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2025

NYZ006>008-010>014-019>021-085-180500-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-250217T2300Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.CW.Y.0002.250218T0300Z-250218T1500Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-
Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, Lowville, Buffalo,
Batavia, Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, Jamestown, Olean,
Wellsville, Orchard Park, and Springville
134 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2025

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING 
TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...For the Wind Advisory, west winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts 
  40 to 50 mph causing areas of blowing snow. For the Cold Weather 
  Advisory, bitterly cold wind chills as low as 20 below zero 
  expected.

* WHERE...Erie, Oswego, Jefferson, Lewis, Genesee, Wyoming, 
  Livingston, Ontario, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Allegany 
  Counties. Highest gusts will be along the Lake Ontario shoreline 
  and across higher elevations.

* WHEN...For the Wind Advisory, until 6 PM EST this evening. For the 
  Cold Weather Advisory, from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST 
  Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds cause areas of blowing and drifting snow. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. 
  Bitterly cold wind chills as low as 25 below zero will cause 
  frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high 
profile vehicle. Areas of blowing snow will cause poor travel 
conditions, especially near open fields.

This is a potentially hazardous situation to be outdoors. If you 
must be outside, be sure to cover all exposed skin. Frostbite can 
occur in 30 minutes or less with apparent temperatures of 15 below 
zero or colder.

&&

$$

NYZ001>005-172300-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-250217T2300Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, Newark,
and Fair Haven
134 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2025

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts 40 to 50 mph causing 
  areas of blowing snow.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, and Northern Cayuga 
  Counties. Highest gusts will be near the Lake Ontario shoreline.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will cause areas of blowing and drifting 
  snow. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high 
profile vehicle. Areas of blowing snow will cause poor travel 
conditions, especially near open fields.

&&

$$

Apffel

032 
WWUS71 KBUF 172249
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
549 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2025

NYZ006>008-010>014-019>021-085-180700-
/O.EXP.KBUF.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-250217T2300Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.CW.Y.0002.250218T0300Z-250218T1500Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-
Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, Lowville, Buffalo,
Batavia, Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, Jamestown, Olean,
Wellsville, Orchard Park, and Springville
549 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2025

...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING 
TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Bitterly cold wind chills as low as 20 below zero expected.

* WHERE...Erie, Oswego, Jefferson, Lewis, Genesee, Wyoming, 
  Livingston, Ontario, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Allegany 
  Counties.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Bitterly cold wind chills as low as 25 below zero will 
  cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is a potentially hazardous situation to be outdoors. If you 
must be outside, be sure to cover all exposed skin. Frostbite can 
occur in 30 minutes or less with apparent temperatures of 15 below 
zero or colder.

&&

$$

NYZ001>005-180000-
/O.EXP.KBUF.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-250217T2300Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, Newark,
and Fair Haven
549 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2025

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

The threat of strong winds has ended, therefore the Wind Advisory 
will be allowed to expire.

$$

HSK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
229 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A deepening low pressure will track across the region today,
bringing a wintry mix which changes back over to snow by this
evening. This strong low pressure will exit off to our northeast
tonight, with strong gusty winds in its wake and much colder
temperatures. Very cold Monday and Tuesday, which combined with
the gusty winds will bring sub zero wind chills. This very cold
airmass will also bring significant lakes effect snows southeast
of lake Ontario through Tuesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Pockets of -FZDZ will give way to steady precipitation as a new slug
of moisture lifts into the area within the next few hours. This will
occur as the sfc low over Tennessee Valley begins to head northeast
towards western PA. Concerning p-type...a very complicated scenario
will unfold with a fairly tight gradient between 'all' snow to a
wintry mix across parts of Western NY with 'rain' the further south
you head. That said...to complicate matters recent 00Z guidance has
trended just a tad bit colder, which may increase snowfall totals.
In addition to the snow...there will be a mixture of sleet/freezing
rain too, especially for counties just south of Lake Ontario and
north of I-90 all the way east to Oswego county. These locations
could be looking at up to a tenth of an inch of icing or a bit more
before the change over back to snow for all locations this
afternoon. As colder air moves back in behind the deepening low,
pcpn will change back to snow. This could lead to 3-6 inches of snow
over Niagara and Orleans counties with 7 inches or more possible
across Jefferson county. Prior to the changeover back to snow...up
to another two tenths of an inch of ice will be possible across
portions of the Niagara Frontier north of Buffalo/Batavia and
in areas southeast of Lake Ontario...with as much as two to four
tenths of an inch of ice accumulating across portions of Oswego
and southern Lewis counties...where some power outages will be
possible.

The synoptic based snow over the region will transition to lake
effect after midnight with a well defined band of heavy lake
snow likely southeast of Lake Ontario by Monday morning. A
winter storm watch is in effect for the lake effect snow
potential.

Wind potential...

Strong CAA with steepening lapse rates directly behind the low and
decent LLJ (+50 knots), will 'likely' produce strong gusty winds
this evening and tonight. Westerly winds could gust as high as
50 mph across the higher terrain of the Finger Lakes through
Monday.

The strong winds will also combine with plummeting temperatures
to produce wind chills of zero to 10 below...and could lead to
additional power outages in areas that received more notable
icing earlier in this period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A deep sub 970 mb surface low, that is -4SD below normal, will be
departing across the Gulf of Saint Lawrence and Newfoundland this
period. A closed upper level low will maintain cold cyclonic flow
across our region with temperatures well below normal. As the low
pressure system becomes vertically stacked Monday it will pass it's
peak intensity, with the surface low beginning to fill.

There will be two concerns this period...strong winds producing cold
wind chills and significant lake effect snow.

Winds/Cold Weather Potential...

We will have a prolonged stretch of decent pressure rises of at
least a millibar per hour Monday and Monday night, this between the
deep surface low to our east and strong surface high (1050 mb or
stronger which would be +3SD above normal) to our west. A LLJ of 45
to 55 knots (strongest to the east) will remain below 850 hPa
through Monday night and with cold air advection through Monday
evening expect favorable downward momentum transfer...with surface
gusts 45 mph or greater through Monday evening for much of our
region.

The westerly wind flow will bring strong gusts not only to the
immediate lake shores, but to areas inland as well. The favorable
mixing of the LLJ will also allow for hill tops to be gusty, such as
the hills of Wyoming and Bristol Hills as well as the Tug Hill which
will lie closer to the stronger flow aloft. Will continue to mention
the potential for strong wind gusts in the HWO post cold front and
through Monday night.

In addition the cold air advection through Monday night will
sufficiently cool the airmass that with the still gusty winds
apparent temperatures will drop to near -15 across WNY and down to -
20 below zero for areas east of Lake Ontario. Cold weather headlines
may be needed for Monday night and will continue to mention this
possibility in the HWO for now.

Lows Monday night will likely drop to zero and below for the
interior SW NYS locations as well as east of Lake Ontario. For the
Lake Plain and the Finger Lakes single digits lows, with areas under
the band of lake effect snow possibly remaining 10F or a few degrees
higher. Tuesday night could be a degree or two colder, especially
east of Lake Ontario where there may be come clearing behind the
southward dropping band of lake effect snow. Lows for Jefferson and
Lewis look to range -5 to -10F. Though colder, the diminished winds
may allow for a few counties to fall just short of cold weather
advisory criteria.

Lake Effect Snow...

The second concern will be lake effect snow. This will mainly impact
areas off Lake Ontario, but still open patches of water and thermal
heat fluxes through thin ice areas will allow for light lake effect
snow east of Erie.

Cold air advection through Monday night over Lake Ontario will bring
lake inversion heights up to around 10K feet. This will stretch
plenty tall enough as the bulk of the snow dendritic growth zone and
lingering ambient moisture will lie closer to the surface beneath
this inversion. Aiding in the strength of this snow band will be
upstream lake connections to northern Lake Huron and Lake Superior
within a lake aggregate trough.

Through Monday there will be little wind shear with a well aligned
280 to 290 flow bringing a band of lake effect snow inland across
Oswego County. Strong convergence along the long axis of the Lake
will help to consolidate and strengthen this band of snow with
snowfall rates at times of 2+ in/hr. These snowfall rates, along
with strong winds will create very poor visibility both in the
snowband and along the peripheral edges of the snowband where
localized stronger wind gusts may occur. Hi res models do show
a subtle 10 degree backing to the winds through the day that
could lift this band towards the central Tug Hill and northern
portion of Oswego with snow carrying into far southern Lewis.

This band of snow will sag southward slowly across Oswego County
Monday night as a 500 hPa shortwave trough encourages this lake
aggregate trough to push southward. Slight increase in low level
wind shear with this trough aloft passage, and increased daytime
mixing Tuesday, may weaken the snowband late Monday night and into
Tuesday with diminished snowfall rates. However later Tuesday night
on a 290 to 300 flow this snowband will become organized again,
bringing another period of increased strength to the lake effect
snowband...this time for portions of eastern Wayne, northern Cayuga
and far southwestern Oswego Country later Tuesday and Tuesday night.
A lighter wind field will also allow this snowband to contract back
closer to the shoreline Tuesday and Tuesday night, with reduced
periods of blowing snow. Falling lake inversion heights, as well as
warming aloft will weaken instability and overall height and
structure of the snowband such that now light lake effect snow
showers will be found along the southern and southeastern shoreline
of Lake Ontario by late Tuesday night.

Overall the prolonged nature of this snowband...both Monday and
Monday night as well as again Tuesday night will bring snowfall
accumulations that will again total in the feet. As such a winter
storm watch for lake effect snow will be issued for Lewis, Oswego,
northern Cayuga and Wayne through late Tuesday night.

Lighter snow showers off Lake Erie, generally Monday and Monday
night before a surface ridge of high pressure extending over Lake
Erie diminishes any lake activity to just flurries by Tuesday.
Accumulations on the hills of SW NYS Monday around an inch or so.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The mid-level ridge axis centered across Lake Erie Wednesday
morning, will build east across New England into Wednesday night
resulting in surface high pressure to slide east across the area
Wednesday and Wednesday night. Overall, the ongoing lake effect snow
southeast of Lake Ontario Wednesday morning will peter out
throughout the day as the dry warm air filters into the region.

Attention then turns to the next mid-level closed low diving
southeast across the Dakotas towards Illinois before pivoting across
the Ohio Valley and lifting northeast across New England by Friday.
As such, a surface low will develop over southern Texas/Louisiana
crossing east towards Georgia Wednesday before lifting
north/northeast along the Eastern Seaboard Wednesday night through
Friday. Given how far out this event lies, model difference continue
with placement and timing of the low and therefore resulting in low
forecast confidence at this time. The track of the low will greatly
determine the weather for the forecast area; a western more track
(along/hugging the Eastern Seaboard) will support a widespread
snowier pattern, while an eastern track in the Atlantic will keep
the region on the drier side. Overall, since the model guidance
continues to highlight a track along the Eastern Seaboard, have
bumped up PoPs for this forecast. Additionally, will keep an eye on
this system and its track as the week progresses.

In the wake of the departing low pressure, subtle mid-level ridging
and associated surface high pressure will spread across the region
Friday and Saturday supporting perhaps a break in the winter weather.

Regarding temperatures, after a chilly start Wednesday low level
temperatures will begin to modulate throughout the remainder of the
week into the weekend, though remain cold enough to support below
freezing temperatures mainly ranging in the 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Spotty -FZDZ will give way to steadier precipitation by early this
morning as the low over Tennessee tracks to western PA. A mix of
snow, sleet and freezing rain will be found across KBUF, KIAG, and
KROC with IFR-LIFR today. South of these terminals precipitation
will turn over to 'rain' (KJHW) with a mix of MVFR-IFR. At
KART...expect deteriorating conditions (MVFR to IFR) with snow
overspreading the terminal. We could see a brief transition to sleet
or freezing at KART this afternoon before changing back to snow. As
the low tracks across New York State precipitation will transition
back over to snow at all terminals by this evening.

With the passage of the low...winds will strengthen quickly with
westerly winds 20 to 30 knots gusting up to 45 knots tonight.

Outlook...
Monday through Tuesday night...Mainly VFR...but IFR to
MVFR in lake snows southeast of the lakes.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR...but MVFR in lake snow showers southeast of
Lake Ontario.
Thursday...MVFR to IFR in snow.

&&

.MARINE...
East to northeast winds will strengthen on Lake Ontario as a
deepening low pressure approaches the lake. This will bring a period
of gales on the western end of Lake Ontario beginning this morning.
Low pressure will cross the eastern Great Lakes this afternoon, with
winds briefly weakening. As the deepening low passes winds will
intensify again this evening, with gale force winds on Lake Ontario
tonight through Monday evening.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for NYZ001>006-
     010>014-019>021-085.
     Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through late Tuesday
     night for NYZ004>006-008.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Monday for NYZ007-008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST
         Tuesday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for
         LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for
         LOZ042-043.
         Gale Warning from 6 AM this morning to 4 PM EST this
         afternoon for LOZ042-043-062-063.
         Gale Watch from this evening through late Monday night for
         LOZ042>045-062>065.
         Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 10 PM EST
         this evening for LOZ044.
         Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EST
         this evening for LOZ045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
308 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

NYZ001>003-010>014-019>021-085-162015-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-
Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
308 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

Behind a strong storm system west to northwest winds will increase
with gusts to 45 mph or stronger Sunday night through Monday night.
This, combined with the cold air temperatures could also lead to
cold weather headlines with wind chills dropping to -15F by Monday
night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ004-005-162015-
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
308 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.
   Winter Storm Watch.

Behind a strong storm system west to northwest winds will increase
with gusts to 45 mph or stronger Sunday night through Monday night.
This, combined with the cold air temperatures could also lead to
cold weather headlines with wind chills dropping to -15F by Monday
night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ008-162015-
Lewis-
308 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.
   Winter Storm Watch.

Behind a strong storm system west to northwest winds will increase
with gusts to 45 mph or stronger Sunday night through Monday night.
This, combined with the cold air temperatures could also lead to
cold weather headlines with wind chills dropping to -20F by Monday
night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-162015-
Jefferson-
308 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

Behind a strong storm system west to northwest winds will increase
with gusts to 45 mph or stronger Sunday night through Monday night.
This, combined with the cold air temperatures could also lead to
cold weather headlines with wind chills dropping to -20F by Monday
night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006-162015-
Oswego-
308 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.
   Winter Storm Watch.

Behind a strong storm system west to northwest winds will increase
with gusts to 45 mph or stronger Sunday night through Monday night.
This, combined with the cold air temperatures could also lead to
cold weather headlines with wind chills dropping to -20F by Monday
night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-SLZ022-024-162015-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
308 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Ontario and Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ044-045-064-065-162015-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
308 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ042-043-062-063-162015-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
308 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY...
...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.
   Gale Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf