Gale Warning 24, NWS Buffalo, NY

841 
WHUS71 KBUF 281757
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1257 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025

LEZ020-LOZ030-290700-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0024.251229T1300Z-251230T0200Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
1257 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 9 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds to 40 knots expected.

* WHERE...The Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...From 8 AM to 9 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-290700-
/O.CON.KBUF.SR.W.0001.251229T1300Z-251230T0200Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
1257 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025

...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 9 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds to 50 knots and waves 14 to 18 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...From 8 AM to 9 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Storm force winds and hazardous waves will capsize 
  or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-062-290700-
/O.CON.KBUF.SR.W.0001.251229T1600Z-251230T0200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
1257 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025

...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds to 50 knots and waves 15 to 19 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore and open waters of Lake Ontario from the 
  Niagara River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...From 11 AM to 9 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Storm force winds and hazardous waves will capsize 
  or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-063>065-290700-
/O.CON.KBUF.SR.W.0001.251229T1800Z-251230T0500Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
1257 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025

...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT
EST MONDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...West winds to 50 knots and waves 16 to 21 feet expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore and open waters of Lake Ontario from 
  Hamlin Beach to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From 1 PM Monday to midnight EST Monday night.

* IMPACTS...Storm force winds and hazardous waves will capsize 
  or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

588 
WHUS71 KBUF 290718
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
218 AM EST Mon Dec 29 2025

LEZ020-LOZ030-292000-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0024.251229T1300Z-251230T0200Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
218 AM EST Mon Dec 29 2025

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds to 45 knots expected.

* WHERE...The Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...From 8 AM this morning to 9 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-292000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SR.W.0001.251229T1300Z-251230T0200Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
218 AM EST Mon Dec 29 2025

...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds to 50 knots and waves 15 to 20 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...From 8 AM this morning to 9 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Storm force winds and hazardous waves will capsize 
  or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-062-292000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SR.W.0001.251229T1600Z-251230T0200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
218 AM EST Mon Dec 29 2025

...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
9 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds to 50 knots and waves 18 to 23 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore and open waters of Lake Ontario from the 
  Niagara River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...From 11 AM this morning to 9 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Storm force winds and hazardous waves will capsize 
  or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-063>065-292000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SR.W.0001.251229T1800Z-251230T0500Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
218 AM EST Mon Dec 29 2025

...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

* WHAT...West winds to 50 knots and waves 20 to 25 feet expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore and open waters of Lake Ontario from 
  Hamlin Beach to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to midnight EST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Storm force winds and hazardous waves will capsize 
  or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

932 
WHUS71 KBUF 291938
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
238 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025

LEZ020-LOZ030-300200-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0024.000000T0000Z-251230T0200Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
238 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds to 45 knots turning west to 35 knots this
  evening.

* WHERE...The Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-300200-
/O.CON.KBUF.SR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-251230T0200Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
238 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025

...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds to 50 knots and waves 15 to 20 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM EST this evening. Gale force winds may
  continue into Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Storm force winds and hazardous waves will capsize or
  damage vessels and reduce visibility. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-062-300200-
/O.CON.KBUF.SR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-251230T0200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
238 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025

...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds to 50 knots and waves 18 to 23 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore and open waters of Lake Ontario from the 
  Niagara River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM EST this evening. Gale force winds may
  continue into Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Storm force winds and hazardous waves will capsize 
  or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-063>065-300500-
/O.CON.KBUF.SR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-251230T0500Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
238 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025

...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

* WHAT...West winds to 50 knots and waves 20 to 25 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore and open waters of Lake Ontario from 
  Hamlin Beach to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until midnight EST tonight. Gale force winds may
  continue into Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Storm force winds and hazardous waves will capsize 
  or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

SLZ022-024-300900-
/O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0108.251229T1938Z-251231T0600Z/
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
238 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds to 35 knots.

* WHERE...The Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Saint 
  Regis.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

712 
WHUS71 KBUF 292354
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
654 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025

LEZ040-041-300800-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-251230T0200Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0025.251230T0000Z-251230T2100Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
654 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY...
...STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...West winds to 45 knots and waves 15 to 20 feet expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-062-300800-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-251230T0200Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0025.251229T2354Z-251230T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
654 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY...
...STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...West winds to 40 knots and waves 17 to 22 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore and open waters of Lake Ontario from the 
  Niagara River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-063>065-300800-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-251230T0500Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0025.251229T2354Z-251231T0500Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
654 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT...
...STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...West winds to 45 knots and waves 20 to 25 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore and open waters of Lake Ontario from 
  Hamlin Beach to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until midnight EST Tuesday night.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-LOZ030-300800-
/O.CAN.KBUF.GL.W.0024.000000T0000Z-251230T0200Z/
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0108.000000T0000Z-251231T0000Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
654 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...West winds to 30 knots.

* WHERE...The Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

SLZ022-024-300800-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0108.000000T0000Z-251231T0600Z/
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
654 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds to 30 knots.

* WHERE...The Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Saint 
  Regis.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
318 AM EST Sun Dec 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Retreating high pressure will continue dry weather through the
morning hours. A moisture-laden low pressure system will cross
the eastern Great Lakes tonight with a widespread soaking rain
and freezing rain in spots east of Lake Ontario. A sharp cold
front will cross the region Monday, followed by much colder air,
damaging winds, and bands of lake effect snow downwind of the
eastern Great Lakes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A storm system on the leeward side of the Rockies across the central
Plains will track northeast towards the southern Great Lakes through
the day today. Tonight, a phasing upper jet will cause the low to
rapidly deepen as it cuts across Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, with
several model ensembles indicating the sfc cyclone even taking on a
"double-barreled" structure. The system's strong arctic cold front
will likely remain to our west until Monday morning. The strength
and track of this storm will bring a plethora of hazards to the
forecast area this period and beyond, but just through tonight,
there are two primary concerns:

Flooding potential...

A deep southerly flow ahead of the system's cold front will advect a
plume of Gulf-based moisture into the Great Lakes. Modeled PWATs of
1-1.25" are near or exceeding record levels for late December based
on climatology dating back to 1948. Coupled with broad isentropic
lift and mid-level divergence ahead of the system's strong LLJ,
widespread moderate to heavy rain is expected. QPF amounts through
early Monday are 1-1.5" in most areas, though across portions of WNY
(namely the Niagara Frontier) forecasted rainfall amounts are closer
to 2". This on top of snowmelt (mainly at higher elevations)
from the rain and mild temperatures will likely cause many of
the Buffalo Area creeks to quickly swell this afternoon into
tonight. While major/moderate flooding is not anticipated, rises
to high action stage appear likely on several creeks, with a
brief window of minor flood stage forecast on the Cazenovia
Creek in particular. Colder temperatures and precip changing
over to snow Monday should sharply decrease runoff and allow
area waterways to quickly fall back below levels of concern.
Outside of creek flooding potential, there will also be the
possibility of poor drainage flooding or ponding across WNY
more generally. As such, the Flood Watch remains in effect for
the 8 western most counties of NY.

Areas of freezing Rain...

Plain rain is the dominant precipitation type for this system as a
850mb warm nose near +10C pushes into the region. However, cold low-
level flow around a retreating area of Canadian high pressure will
likely cause a sub-freezing layer to linger in some areas with more
complex terrain. A tricky forecast here but the greatest chances for
this are expected late afternoon through the early overnight hours
in the St. Lawrence Valley north of Watertown as a NE flow of cold
air funnels down, as well as up across the Tug/Western Dacks where
sfc temps will likely be colder overall. Forecast ice accumulations
in these areas tops out around 0.25" which is largely a middle
ground between the RRFS/HREF LPMM and FRAM ice amounts. Elsewhere,
especially on the leeward side of the Tug/Dacks where some downslope
warming will come into play, little to no ice is expected and precip
type should remain mostly plain rain. Should be noted that there is
considerably higher uncertainty around the Watertown metro which is
right on the edge of the downslope area and the St. Lawrence Valley.

There is also a minor (30% or less) chance that some of the colder
valleys of southern Cattaraugus and Allegany counties see a 1-2 hour
window of freezing rain at precip onset late this morning, though
with a quick changeover to rain, this should have minimal impact.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Storm system tracking northeast of the Great Lakes will drive a
strong cold front through the region Monday, with high winds and
a rapid changeover to snow expected.

Wind concern...

Strong cold air advection Monday and Monday night with favorable
momentum transfer tapping into a 65 knot plus low level jet bring
southwest to westerly winds gusting into 40 to 50 mph range region
wide, and up to 70 mph downwind of Lake Erie. A favorable
climatological track of this deepening sub 980 surface low has
increased confidence to issue a high wind warning downwind of Lake
Erie and for Jefferson county northeast of Lake Ontario. The strong
winds Monday will not be great for trees, especially those with
shallow roots, that will now be situated within a saturated
ground. Additionally these winds, combined with the lake effect
snow will create blowing and drifting snow, with very poor
visibility expected within the lake effect snow bands by Monday
evening.

Lake Seiche...

While our region has had several lake seiches recently to just over
6 feet, a more favorable location of the surface high (southern
Plains) and much stronger wind flow is expected to bring a seiche on
Lake Erie, likely to warning levels of 8 feet and possible even 9
feet or more. A lakeshore flood warning has been issued to account
for this potential. One factor that may back it tough for lake level
rises is the lake level is currently below normal. But given the
strength of this system, even the low lake level will still have
potential for exceeding warning level. Flooding is possible along
Route 5 in Hamburg, Buffalo Harbor and Canalside, Dunkirk Harbor,
and other flood prone locations. Flooding could along occur
along portions of the Niagara River. Very high wave action may
also result in significant shoreline erosion.

Lake effect snow:

A steady stream of arctic air over our region Monday afternoon
through mid-week will maintain lake effect snow...with snowbands
oscillating downwind of each lake through this period.

Initially southwest flow will bring lake snows to Buffalo-Batavia
Monday afternoon and evening, as well as Watertown, before winds
veer to westerly and drop the snows down into the lake belts.

Lake effect snow is expected to be east and southeast of the Lakes
Tuesday, with models now lingering deeper moisture to fuel these
lake bands Tuesday, before a shortwave trough over the northern
Lakes Wednesday backs surface winds to southwest
Wednesday...advancing the snowbands back northward into Buffalo and
Watertown.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A shortwave trough and surface cold front will drop across our
region Thursday, bringing widespread snow, but also weakening
briefly lake effect snow bands.

Cold air behind this front will again generate lake effect snow
through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR to IFR will prevail this morning as a deck of low stratus with
a CB around 1kft this morning will be stubborn to clear out. Low
confidence in a gently increasing southerly flow lifting and/or
breaking up the low clouds across the lower terrain areas for a
period of time this morning. This stratus may reach KART at times.

A potent storm system will track into the Great Lakes later today
into tonight. Copious moisture advecting northward will cause
widespread moderate to heavy rain to spread across the entire region
through the course of the day with IFR to LIFR cigs/vsbys
prevailing. The edge of the precip shield is expected to move into
WNY generally after 16z or 17z. The activity may then turn more
showery in nature tonight.

Where cold air will funnel into areas of more complex terrain,
freezing rain will be possible through tonight. Highest chances for
this are north and south of KART (St. Lawrence Valley/Tug Hill),
though a period of FZRA will be possible at the terminal between 22z-
02z. There is also a low (30% or less) chance of 1-2 hour period of
FZRA around KOLE/KELZ at precipitation onset late this morning.

Finally, the system's potent LLJ will be initially be embedded
within an area of warm air advection that will move over the region
later today. This will possibly lead to 40-50kts of LLWS overnight
over a broad areal footprint tonight, which will diminish as sfc
winds ramp up on Monday.

Outlook...

Monday...IFR or lower. Rain changing to snow early from west to
east. Localized lake effect snow initially develops northeast of the
lakes in the afternoon, then intensifies and moves southward through
Monday night. Very strong southwesterly winds with gusts 50-60kts
between KIAG and KROC and possibly at KART, and gusts 35-50kts
possible elsewhere. Winds combined with snow will lead to
significant reductions in vsbys in lake effect areas.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Areas of MVFR with scattered snow
showers. Localized heavier lake effect snow and IFR/LIFR possible
east/southeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Northwesterly wind
gusts of 30-40kts possible Tuesday.

Thursday...Widespread IFR as a cold front drops across the region
with snow, while also briefly weakening lake effect snowbands.

&&

.MARINE...
A deepening storm system will move over the Great Lakes tonight,
then move northeast of the lakes Monday. This will drive a strong
cold front across the region with southerly winds veering
southwesterly and rapidly increasing late tonight through Monday.
With an intense LLJ and deep cold air advection in place, storm
force winds appear increasingly likely on both lakes, and as such
Storm Warnings have been issued. Gale Force winds are also likely on
the Niagara and Saint Lawrence rivers. These very strong winds are
expected to persist on Lake Erie into Monday evening, and on Lake
Ontario into late Monday night before shifting northwesterly.

Winds will likely remain elevated on both lakes through much of the
week as low pressure remains over Quebec, and may even approach Gale
Force at times through Wednesday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Flood Watch from 1 PM EST this afternoon through Monday
     afternoon for NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085.
     High Wind Warning from 4 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for
     NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
     Lakeshore Flood Warning from 5 AM to 10 PM EST Monday for
     NYZ001-010-019-085.
     Winter Storm Watch from Monday evening through Thursday
     evening for NYZ004-005.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST
     Monday for NYZ006>008.
     Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM Monday to 7 AM EST Saturday for
     NYZ006>008.
     High Wind Warning from 7 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for
     NYZ007.
     Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM Monday to 1 AM EST Friday for
     NYZ012-019-020-085.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 8 AM to 9 PM EST Monday for LEZ020.
         Storm Warning from 8 AM to 9 PM EST Monday for LEZ040-041.
         Gale Warning from 8 AM to 9 PM EST Monday for LOZ030.
         Storm Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM EST Monday for LOZ042-062.
         Storm Warning from 1 PM Monday to midnight EST Monday
         night for LOZ043>045-063>065.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PP/Thomas
NEAR TERM...PP
SHORT TERM...PP/Thomas/TMA
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...PP
MARINE...PP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
121 PM EST Sat Dec 27 2025

NYZ021-281830-
Allegany-
121 PM EST Sat Dec 27 2025

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Behind a cold front, southwest to west winds will become strong,
likely gusting into the advisory range later Monday and through
early Tuesday.

As cold air deepens lake effect snow will become likely late Monday
afternoon and through much of next work week. Oscillating bands of
lake effect snow through the week will produce locally heavy
accumulations, especially for the northwest corner of the county.
Still windy conditions through Tuesday will allow for the lake snows
to blow and drift with poor visibilities.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ019-085-281830-
Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
121 PM EST Sat Dec 27 2025

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...
...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT...
...LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE MONDAY NIGHT...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   High Wind Watch.
   Lakeshore Flood Watch.
   Winter Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ012-281830-
Wyoming-
121 PM EST Sat Dec 27 2025

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...
...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   High Wind Watch.
   Winter Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ020-281830-
Cattaraugus-
121 PM EST Sat Dec 27 2025

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Winter Storm Watch.

Behind a cold front, southwest to west winds will become strong,
likely gusting into the advisory range later Monday and through
early Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001-002-011-281830-
Niagara-Orleans-Genesee-
121 PM EST Sat Dec 27 2025

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...
...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   High Wind Watch.

As cold air deepens lake effect snow will become likely late Monday
afternoon. Oscillating bands of lake effect snow will primarily
reside south of Batavia, but several opportunities will exist for
lake snows to lift northward impacting the northern Niagara Frontier
through the week with locally moderate accumulations.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ010-281830-
Northern Erie-
121 PM EST Sat Dec 27 2025

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...
...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT...
...LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE MONDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   High Wind Watch.
   Lakeshore Flood Watch.

As cold air deepens lake effect snow will become likely late Monday
afternoon and through much of the next work week. Oscillating bands
of lake effect snow will primarily reside south of Buffalo, but
several opportunities will exist for lake snows to lift northward
impacting the northern Niagara Frontier through the week with locally
moderate accumulations.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ003-281830-
Monroe-
121 PM EST Sat Dec 27 2025

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Watch.

A period of rain is expected Sunday, with poor drainage flooding
possible before a cold front passes through Monday with rain
changing to snow. Behind the cold front southwest winds will at times
bring a band of lake effect snow across the county through mid-week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ013-014-281830-
Livingston-Ontario-
121 PM EST Sat Dec 27 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A period of rain is expected Sunday, with poor drainage flooding
possible before a cold front passes through Monday with rain, gusty
southwest winds and rain changing to snow. Behind the cold front
southwest winds will at times bring a band of lake effect snow across
the counties through mid-week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ004-005-281830-
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
121 PM EST Sat Dec 27 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A period of rain is expected Sunday, with poor drainage flooding
possible before a cold front passes through the region Monday, with
rain changing to snow.

Behind the cold front southwest to west winds will become strong,
likely gusting into the advisory range later Monday and through
Tuesday.

As cold air deepens lake effect snow will become likely Monday
night and through much of next work week. Oscillating bands of lake
effect snow through the week (at times north of the counties) may
produce locally heavy accumulations. Still windy conditions through
Tuesday will allow for the lake snows to blow and drift.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006-281830-
Oswego-
121 PM EST Sat Dec 27 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.
   Winter Storm Watch.

A period of rain is expected Sunday, with poor drainage flooding
possible before a cold front passes through the region Monday, with
rain changing to snow.

Behind the cold front southwest to west winds will become strong,
likely gusting into the advisory range later Monday and through
Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-008-281830-
Jefferson-Lewis-
121 PM EST Sat Dec 27 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.
   Winter Storm Watch.

Behind the cold front southwest to west winds will become strong,
likely gusting into the advisory range later Monday and through
Tuesday.

Still windy conditions through Tuesday will allow for the lake snows
to blow and drift with very poor visibilities.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ040-041-281830-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
121 PM EST Sat Dec 27 2025

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ042>045-062>065-281830-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
121 PM EST Sat Dec 27 2025

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-LOZ030-SLZ022-024-281830-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
121 PM EST Sat Dec 27 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Ontario and Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf