Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
618 PM CST Tue Mar 4 2025

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1249 PM CST MON MAR 4 2025

- A Wind Advisory is in effect for all of Central Alabama through
  3 pm Wednesday. Sustained winds of 20-35 mph with gusts up to 50
  mph are likely. Highest wind gusts are expected across higher
  elevation locations.

- There is a level 2 to 3 out of 5 risk for severe storms 5 pm
  this evening to around 3 am early Wednesday morning across
  Central Alabama. Threats include damaging straight-line winds
  and a few tornadoes, with greatest severe threat across southern
  and southwestern counties.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR STORMS MOVING INTO WEST ALABAMA...
Issued at 618 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2025

In response to an increasingly dynamic shortwave at 500 mb, a
convective line is in the process of developing and organizing in
eastern Mississippi. 700 mb rear inflow is expected to strengthen
to 70-80 kts as line approaches I-65. Therefore, the threat for
damaging winds within the line should increase accordingly as the
line sweeps across the state. A lack of surface-based CAPE will
limit the northward extent of the tornado threat to our southern
counties tonight, where there is a low/non-zero chance of embedded
brief tornadoes. Additionally, damaging gradient wind gusts of
45-55 mph have already occurred ahead of the line across Alabama.
This is expected to continue as the 850 mb low-level jet increases
to 70-85 kts immediately ahead of the line.

87/Grantham

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 543 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2025

A Tornado Watch is now in effect through 1 AM for southwestern
portions of Central Alabama. The line of storms moving out of
Mississippi is expected to intensify this evening, leading to an
increased tornado risk. Ahead of this line, strong southerly winds
has lead to a number of wildfires across the region as powerlines
have struggled to remain upright.

95/Castillo

Previous short-term discussion:
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1249 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2025

Rapid changes are ongoing over the deep south as the very strong
vertically-stacked low pressure system moves eastward from Kansas
and the Great Plains states. The parent low has begun to occlude,
with trailing front now located across Central Arkansas stretching
southward into northern Louisiana. Southeasterly gradient winds
have already begun to ramp up over the region, with peak winds
gusting close to 30 knots already in Tuscaloosa, and closer to 40
knots at Jackson and Greenwood, Mississippi. Concerns are
increasing in terms of potential impacts from gradient winds ahead
of the approaching cold front. Latest guidance is presenting a
medium to high chance of observing wind gusts between 40 and
50mph between 6pm this evening and midnight tonight. If we're able
to achieve gusts up to 50mph, we can certainly expect trees to be
downed along with sporadic power outages. Folks in high profile
vehicles will need to also use extra caution when traveling late
this afternoon through the overnight hours. With strong warm air
and moisture advection, temperatures have rapidly climbed into the
70s in most locations with filtered sunshine as we approach
1pm. The forecast remains on track for highs to top out in the
mid to upper 70s.

For the severe weather threat this evening and overnight tonight,
the availability of low-level moisture and instability remains the
biggest question mark. Even to our west, dewpoints are only
running in the mid to upper 40s across Central Mississippi, with
upper 50s in southern portions of the state. The low level jet
will have to really ramp up later this afternoon if we're going to
get the effective warm front to move far enough northward for a
significant severe threat. It could certainly happen, but it will
be a race against time as the forward momentum of the gust front/
cold pool ahead of the surface front will continue to race
eastward. After timing out the line of storms currently on radar,
ETA for our far northwest counties is between 4 and 5pm which is
already outpacing high-res guidance members. We'll certainly be
watching mesoscale conditions closely this afternoon and into the
early evening hours. As 0-3km SRH greatly increases, if any deeper
surface-based instability is realized we could be dealing with
more discrete cell development or a more broken line of storms
especially across southern Mississippi and southwestern Alabama.
The Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) identifies that area fairly well
where the best chance of surface-rooted storms exists.

Farther to the north, we'll likely see a QLCS move into western
portions of the CWA between 5pm and 7pm this evening. Although
surface-based instability will be limited, the high shear/low
CAPE environment will certainly be favorable for damaging wind
gusts between 60 and 70mph and QLCS spin-up tornadoes. Multiple
reports of wind gusts in that range have been reported across
northern Louisiana today. The forward momentum of the line of
storms will also be favorable for the winds to mix down to the
surface. As the line gets closer to western Alabama, we'll start
to get a better idea as to the northward extent of the severe
storm threat. For folks east of I-65 and along the I-59 corridor
northeast of Birmingham, we may end up seeing a greater threat of
impacts from gradient wind gusts at or above 50mph just ahead of
the line of storms. The mountains of eastern and northeastern
Alabama will be most susceptible to these higher wind gusts.

As the storms race off to the east early Wednesday morning into
Georgia, cooler and drier air from the west will advect into the
area. Wrap-around moisture associated with the occluded cyclone to
our north and plenty of 500mb shortwave energy will help to
develop low clouds across the northern half of the CWA through
midday Wednesday. Some light rain will also be possible north of
the I-20/U.S 82 corridors at times but we're not expecting much to
accumulate in the bucket. With westerly gradient winds still
screaming in from the west between 20 and 25mph with some gusts
close to 35mph, conditions for any outdoor activities will be
downright chilly. The Wind Advisory will remain in effect through
3pm Wednesday. I've trended daytime highs more toward raw
guidance and lower end of NBM guidance due to the dreary
conditions expected. Temperatures may not reach the 50 degree mark
at Haleyville, but will be close to 70 at Eufaula with more
sunshine to work with.

56/GDG

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 100 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2025

The long-term will start with below average temperatures, as strong
cold air advection continues to work into the region behind the
front. Temperatures will remain on the cooler side until Friday,
when surface and upper-level flow shift back to the SW. Temperatures
here will rebound into the upper-60s and mid-70s, before another
cold front moves through the region on Saturday. Thankfully, it
still looks like this front will only amount to general rain
chances, with another half-inch or so anticipated.

The rest of the long-term looks rather uneventful, as upper-level
ridging builds in across the region. This will allow for
temperatures to rebound once more, with highs back in the 70s by
Tuesday. Depending on how things shake out with the system today,
and the one on Saturday, we may be looking at drought conditions
quickly spreading across the region. A good chunk of the area is
already in drought conditions, with the expansion likely coming in
the form of size, and potentially scope.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 458 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2025

Poor flying conditions will continue through this TAF cycle.
Continued the mention of LLWS for all sites as strong winds at the
surface and even stronger aloft remain in place. A line of strong
to severe thunderstorms is currently along the MS/AL state line.
This line will clear TCL/EET/BHM by 04Z-06Z, and ANB/ASN/MGM by
06-08Z. Strong winds and heavy rainfall will allow for IFR
conditions as the worst of the line moves through. A breezy west-
southwest flow will develop in the wake of line, which will keep
gusts from 25-30 knots through Wednesday afternoon. Introduced
a mention of MVFR ceilings Wednesday morning as low level
moisture remains in place.

95/Castillo

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Very strong gradient winds remain possible ahead of the line today,
with sustained winds between 20-25 MPH. However, gusts today could
reach 50 MPH, especially at higher elevations. These high winds will
linger into tomorrow as well, with the current Wind Advisory
expiring tomorrow at 3 PM. Rain amounts through tonight will
generally range near an inch, with dry conditions returning into the
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     52  56  30  54 / 100  20  10   0
Anniston    54  57  32  56 / 100  10  10   0
Birmingham  52  55  33  55 / 100  20   0   0
Tuscaloosa  51  55  34  59 / 100  10   0   0
Calera      52  56  35  56 / 100  10   0   0
Auburn      55  62  35  56 / 100   0   0   0
Montgomery  54  62  36  59 / 100   0   0   0
Troy        56  65  37  59 / 100   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST Wednesday for the following
counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-
Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-
Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-
Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St.
Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

&&

SHORT TERM...56/GDG
LONG TERM..../44/
AVIATION...95/Castillo

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
550 PM CST Tue Mar 4 2025

ALZ011>015-017>050-060300-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
550 PM CST Tue Mar 4 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

A Tornado Watch is in effect for southwestern portions of Central
Alabama through 1 AM Wednesday morning.

There is a level 2 to 3 out of 5 risk for severe storms this evening
into early Wednesday morning across all of central Alabama. Threats
include damaging straight-line winds and a few tornadoes.

Additionally, a Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3PM Wednesday.
Gradient winds at times may be stronger than the winds associated
with the line of thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management will be needed
Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning

TC

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