Severe Thunderstorm Warning 120, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
229 PM CDT Fri May 2 2025

...New LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 221 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025

 - There is a level 3 out of 5 risk for severe storms for the northwest
   half of Central Alabama through late this evening. A level 1
   to 2 our of 5 risk exists for the remainder of the area.
   Threats include damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail up to
   quarter size.

 - There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms on Saturday
   for much of Central Alabama.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025

A frontal boundary will approach the area today, with scattered
convection already firing up to the north and west of the area.
This activity will increase in coverage through the afternoon and
evening, with severe thunderstorms possible. Instabilities are
over 3000 J/kg in the west, with LI around -8. Steep lapse rates
and a weak cap on the soundings should allow for any storms to
have high cores, strong winds, large hail, near constant
lightning, and heavy rain. The storms are moving southwest to
northeast, with the stronger mid level winds north of the area
through the afternoon. A few slower moving or training storms
could produce high rain rates in a few areas. Otherwise, damaging
winds and large hail will be the main threats through the
afternoon and early evening. 0-1 shear is weak, and the rest of
the wind profile doesn't support enough deeper shear for tornadoes,
so will leave off the threat list for now. Later this evening,
the mid level winds will increase as the front approaches, and
storm motion should increase, though training is still likely as
the wind profile stays parallel to the front.

Tonight, the instabilities will decrease after sunset, with the
threat of severe slowly decreasing through the evening and early
night. There is still enough forcing from a departing shortwave,
combined with weak instabilities for showers and thunderstorms to
continue through the night and early morning. Though these should
be sub severe, there could be strong storms with strong winds,
frequent lightning, heavy rain, and small hail.

Saturday, the front should slowly move to the southeast and drape
over the state by the afternoon. Models have been atrocious at
timing and coverage of the storms with this system, so confidence
is low. Will advertise scattered to widespread thunderstorms
through the late morning and afternoon on Saturday, with a few
possibly becoming severe. Instabilities won't be quite as high
as Friday afternoon, with values around 1500 J/kg, though with a
stronger mid level jet, the wind profile will be slightly
stronger. There is a low chance for storms to produce damaging
winds up to 60 mph and large hail. There could very likely be
breaks between storms, but models are not handling any boundaries
with enough consistency to allow a higher confidence on when
those breaks would be. If there is enough of a break in the late
morning and early afternoon, the instabilities may be slightly
higher for the activity in the afternoon, though we will assess as
the system continues to evolve.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025

After the activity works out of the area Saturday night, an upper
low will swing to our north. Right now clouds look to be the main
weather feature on Sunday, but a few light showers may develop
across far northern counties. Right now chances remain low of
getting at least a hundredth of an inch so will go with a cloudy
but dry forecast for now. As some of the CAMs come in tonight and
Saturday, we could see the trend increase for the light rain on
Sunday and Monday.

Forecast models continue to suggest batches of showers and storms
may affect our area mid to late next week, with shortwaves coming
off an upstream trough and westerly flow aloft.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025

Thunderstorms will move through the area this afternoon, with
uncertainty in timing and coverage. Have left in PROB30 and VCSH
until a better timing can be determined. Any activity will likely
produce IFR visibilities (or lower) with high PW values allowing
for high rain rates. Lightning will be frequent. Activity should
weaken closer to midnight, though showers and thunderstorms are
expected off and on through the end of the TAF period.

24

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Moderate to high chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue
through late Saturday evening as a cold front approaches the region.
Increasing moisture ahead of the boundary will keep min RHs around
40-60% today and 60-70% on Saturday. Drier conditions will move into
the area on Sunday with RHs falling into the 35-45% range at times.
However, light winds will help negate fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     60  71  50  72 /  80  90  30  10
Anniston    61  72  52  73 /  70  90  40   0
Birmingham  63  71  52  71 /  80  90  20   0
Tuscaloosa  63  72  52  74 /  80  90  10   0
Calera      63  71  54  73 /  80  90  30   0
Auburn      63  72  57  75 /  20  90  70   0
Montgomery  64  75  56  75 /  40  90  40   0
Troy        63  74  57  76 /  20  90  60   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...24

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
241 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025

ALZ011>015-017>050-031045-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
241 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

There is a level 3 out of 5 risk for severe storms for locations near
and north of Interstate 20 with a level 1 to 2 out of 5 risk for
locations south of Interstate 20. Threats include damaging wind gusts
up to 60 mph and hail up to quarter size during the afternoon and
evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms across central
Alabama Saturday morning and afternoon. Threats include damaging wind
gusts up to 60 mph and hail up to quarter size.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management will be needed
for today and Saturday.

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