Tornado Warning 56, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
636 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 459 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025

Scattered thunderstorms are developing across the northern
Panhandles on the edge of a surface boundary that is moving
south/southeast. These storms are in a prime environment that
could quickly produce severe thunderstorms capable of large to
very large hail and damaging wind gusts. A tornado or two also
cannot be ruled out, with the higher potential later this evening.
Due to the severe storm potential, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch has
been issued for the central and eastern Panhandles through
midnight tonight. Have made some minor edits to PoP grids to
account for the ongoing storms and expected evolution of the
system through the evening hours.

Muscha

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025

- Thunderstorms, some could be severe, are possible for both today
  and tomorrow. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary
  hazards but a tornado is also possible with the storms today.

- High temperatures each day are forecast to be in the 80s to low
  90s.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances may return this upcoming
  weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025

Satellite imagery early this afternoon depicts mostly clear skies
across the Panhandles with a few areas of scattered clouds for the
southeast and central Panhandles. The imagery also depicts wind
shear across the area really well, as low level clouds are moving
northerly and mid level clouds are moving easterly at this time.
Tremendous uncertainty remains regarding the severe thunderstorm
potential for later this afternoon into this evening. What is
known right now is that there is subtle surface convergence as
depicted by the wind field across the central Panhandles at this
time. Keeping or even increasing that convergence will be
paramount in generating any storms today as there is a distinct
lack of upper level support for storms. The 08/12z HREF suite has
also not helped build confidence in the location of storm
development or if storms will even form given the large variety of
potential solutions. With that being said, if any storms are able
to form, they could quickly become severe with large to destructive
hail and damaging wind gusts being the primary hazards. As low
level shear increases late this afternoon into this evening aided
by a 35-40 kt LLJ, a tornado will be possible with any isolated
supercell thunderstorms. Again, this is a highly conditional
threat but if any storms do form, they will need to be watched
carefully.

Sufficient moisture is forecast to remain in place for tomorrow
and may allow for additional thunderstorm development across the
region. A subtle shortwave may move over the region during peak
heating tomorrow afternoon to allow isolated to scattered storms
to form. The environment will remain conducive for storms to
become strong to severe, with large hail and damaging winds being
the primary hazards once again. MLCAPE values may be slightly
lower than today, but with mid level temperatures being cool,
large hail will still be possible. Some drier air will move in
across the lower levels and at the surface so DCAPE values are
forecast to be higher so damaging wind gusts may also accompany
the large hail threat. Showers and storms may last into the late
evening into the overnight hours but the severe threat should
decrease through the night.

Muscha

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025

Even though upper level troughing will lift northeast across the
Plains late this week, high pressure looks to remain in place over
the Panhandles over the next week. This will lead to temperatures
being fairly stagnant over the next week with daily highs in the 80s
to low 90s. Shortwaves may continue to round the southern and
eastern periphery of the broad H500 trough and may generate rain
across portions of the Panhandles this week. Due to the wide range
in model guidance, rain chances are around or below 10 percent
through Friday afternoon. Friday night through this weekend, rain
chances may start to rise for the Panhandles as the trough begins
to move east and lift northeast. The base of the trough still
looks to remain north of the region but PVA may still be able to
generate some rainfall for the area this weekend.

Muscha

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025

We'll continue to monitor thunderstorm potential near the
terminals over the next few hours, and amendments may be needed.
Otherwise, winds will swing out of the southeast to southwest at
10-15 kts throughout the period with some mid to high level cloud
decks. VFR conditions should prevail throughout the period.

Harrel

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...38

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
113 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-090700-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
113 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening, across
the Panhandles. A few thunderstorms could be severe with large
hail and damaging winds being the primary hazards. A tornado
cannot be ruled out with any storms today as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Thunderstorm chances continue on Tuesday across the Panhandles. A
few storms may become severe, with large hail and damaging winds
being the primary hazards.

Thunderstorm chances may return this weekend for portions of the
Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
554 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0544 PM     Hail             1 E Dalhart             36.06N 102.50W
09/08/2025  M1.00 Inch       Dallam             TX   Emergency Mngr

&&

BRM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
559 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     Hail             3 E Dalhart             36.06N 102.47W
09/08/2025  M1.75 Inch       Dallam             TX   Trained Spotter

            Mostly nickel hail with some golf ball size
            mixed in.

&&

BRM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
650 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     Hail             3 E Perryton            36.39N 100.75W
09/08/2025  E2.75 Inch       Ochiltree          TX   Emergency Mngr

            Baseball size hail was falling at the time
            of the report.

&&

PAV

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
714 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0642 PM     Hail             3 SE Perryton           36.36N 100.75W
09/08/2025  E1.50 Inch       Ochiltree          TX   Public

            Picture sent through social media.

&&

PAV

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
722 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0652 PM     Hail             4 E Perryton            36.39N 100.73W
09/08/2025  M3.50 Inch       Ochiltree          TX   Emergency Mngr

&&

PAV

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
728 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     Hail             1 NNE Wolf Creek Park   36.22N 100.64W
09/08/2025  E1.00 Inch       Ochiltree          TX   Emergency Mngr

&&

PAV