Special Weather Statement, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
347 PM EDT Mon May 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Convection will continue through tonight in association with a
slow moving/cutoff low pressure system and attendant surface
front. Drier weather returns Tuesday through early Thursday
after the front moves through. Another period of unsettled
weather is possible later Thursday into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 311 PM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect for a majority of the
  forecast area through 9 PM.

- Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms across the forecast
  area, with the main threats hail and wind.

- Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall, with isolated instances
  of flash flooding possible.

Convection has started to bubble across central NC and is moving
into the southern piedmont and south-central VA counties. Dew points
are in the upper 50s to lower 60s throughout the forecast area, with
temperatures of in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. A pseudo dry
line is draped across the piedmont, and there is a sharp gradient of
instability, with 1000-2000 J/kg of ML CAPE found on the eastern
side of the boundary. Storms to our south have displayed impressive
hail cores, which aligns with large hail and winds being the main
threat for the day.

Strong to severe storms will continue to move through the forecast
area this afternoon and evening, and their trajectory will generally
be a north to northeast motion. The upper low remains firmly in
place across the Tennessee River Valley region due to the current
omega blocking pattern. An embedded shortwave is rounding the
eastern periphery of the main upper low near the Mid-Atlantic
region. This shortwave is working to enhance the developing storms
with extra support aloft. Southeast to south flow will continue is
pumping moisture into the region. This afternoon and evening's
environment will continue to feature modest shear, ML CAPE values of
1000-2000 J/kg, and good low-level lapse rates between 6.5 C/km to 7
C/km. SPC has a majority of the forecast area in a Slight Risk (2/5)
today, with the main threats being large hail and isolated damaging
wind gusts. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for a majority
of the forecast through 9 pm. The areas not in the watch at this
time include far SE VA and NE NC, as well as the Eastern Shore as
storms are not expected to reach these areas until later when peak
heating has tapered off. While confidence is lower in these areas
seeing storms reach severe criteria in these areas, we cannot rule
out stronger storms developing. Storm development will be more
scattered to start, so rainfall totals across the forecast area will
vary widely based on the location of any storms. Storms may start to
congeal later this evening and produce some isolated instances of
flash-flooding. WPC has placed our area in a Marginal Risk for
excessive rainfall.

The upper low will begin to lift northwards tonight. As this occurs,
the front associated with the surface low will finally move through
the area, bringing a drier airmass behind it. Storms should end
before midnight, with some trailing lighter rain possible. Skies
will start to clear out as the front moves through, but partly to
mostly cloudy skies will prevail overnight. Temperatures will drop
into the lower to mid 50s W and in the upper 50s to lower 60s E.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 311 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Unsettled weather is expected to quiet down Tuesday and
  Wednesday.

The front should move completely through by early Tuesday afternoon.
Not much of an airmass change is expected in terms of temperatures,
with highs forecast to drop into the 50s Tuesday night and rebound
quickly back into the mid/upper 70s to near 80 degrees on Wednesday.
The upper low will gradually weaken and lift northeastwards between
Tuesday and Wednesday as the omega block finally breaks down, and
high pressure will build in behind it. Rain chances will fall to
single digits for most of the area through Thursday morning, with
rain-free conditions and partly cloudy to mostly clear skies
expected through at least the first part of Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 311 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- The unsettled weather pattern resumes late Thursday into
  Friday.

By Thursday morning, global models suggest that a sharp trough will
dig down across the Northeast, leading to yet another upper cut-off
low lingering around the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a frontal
boundary will be approaching the region from the west. The
combination of the approaching from and upper low could cause
another round of unsettled weather mainly Thursday into Friday when
moisture is at its best. This upper low will have less moisture to
work with heading into the weekend as high pressure builds into the
lower levels behind a front. Much drier air will spill down from
Canada and persistent northwesterly flow is forecast to bring cooler
temperatures to the area. The NW flow will keep high temperatures
suppressed in the upper 60s to lower 70s Friday through the weekend.
Low temperatures will drop into the lower to mid 50s by Thursday
night, falling further into the upper 40s to lower to mid 50s by
Friday night. The aforementioned upper low will quickly lift
northeastwards Saturday morning, and high pressure will continue to
build in its wake. This will lead to moderating temperatures and
lowered rain chances. High temperatures are forecast to return to
the upper 70s to near 80 degrees by the end of the weekend. Rain
chances will be highest across NE NC, but will remain slight at
best.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Monday...

This afternoon, SCT to BKN MVFR CIGs (~1500 to 2500 ft) are
across most of the TAF sites. We likely see some brief
improvement to VFR over the next few hours (outside of SBY
which remains MVFR). In addition, showers and thunderstorms are
developing south of the area and will likely overspread later
this afternoon into the first part of the night (highest
confidence at RIC). A few storms may be strong to severe, which
will result in the potential for brief sub-VFR VIS, strong wind
gusts, and potentially large hail. After showers/storms
dissipate, another round of fog/low stratus is possible late
tonight into Tuesday morning. As of now, the highest confidence
to see IFR conditions is at SBY, with lesser certainty at the
other sites. Conditions improve to VFR at all sites later
Tuesday morning.

Outlook: Conditions improve to VFR through midweek as high
pressure returns.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 345 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-advisory conditions will prevail through the middle of the
week.

An upper level low remains over the Tennessee River Valley along
with high pressure well offshore. A surface low pressure system
continues to linger to the west of the area through Tuesday, along
with an associated stationary front. A weak boundary moved through
the southern coastal waters this morning, leaving the southern-most
seas elevated between 5 and 6 ft. The SCA covering the elevated seas
will be allowed to expire at 4 PM today as seas have decreased to
mostly 3 to 4 ft, occasionally 5 ft for all of the coastal waters.
Additionally, waves are currently 1 to 2 ft in the Ches. Bay. Winds
are mostly S/SSE in the southern coastal waters and the bay, but
have shifted to be W/SW off the Eastern Shore around 10 to 15 kt.
There is a chance of storms developing this evening, which could
produce locally higher wind gusts and hail.

The low pressure will lift NE Tuesday and Wednesday, allowing the
stationary front to the west to pass through the area as a weak cold
front. Model guidance continues to support sub-SCA conditions
remaining with winds shifting from SSE ahead of the front on Tuesday
to the WNW late Tuesday into Wednesday. Waves and seas will remain
sub-SCA around 1 to 2 ft in the bay and 2 to 3 ft in the coastal
waters. A backdoor front could potentially move through the waters
towards the end of the week, but confidence remains low on strength
and timing.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ658.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HET/NB
NEAR TERM...NB
SHORT TERM...NB
LONG TERM...NB
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...KMC

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
651 PM EDT Mon May 5 2025

VAZ083-084-518-520-052300-
New Kent VA-Eastern King William VA-Eastern King and Queen VA-
Gloucester VA-
651 PM EDT Mon May 5 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN GLOUCESTER...
SOUTHEASTERN KING AND QUEEN...NORTHEASTERN NEW KENT AND SOUTHEASTERN
KING WILLIAM COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM EDT...

At 650 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
West Point, moving north at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Little Plymouth around 655 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Mattaponi, Holly
Forks, Eltham, Romancoke, Plum Point, Gressit, and Clancie.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
eastern, southeastern and east central Virginia.

&&

LAT...LON 3758 7660 3746 7674 3747 7674 3744 7677
      3744 7679 3745 7682 3745 7683 3752 7696
      3769 7690
TIME...MOT...LOC 2250Z 196DEG 36KT 3756 7681

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

NB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
657 PM EDT Mon May 5 2025

VAZ088-089-092-093-052345-
Isle of Wight VA-Surry VA-Sussex VA-Southampton VA-
657 PM EDT Mon May 5 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN SOUTHAMPTON...
NORTHWESTERN ISLE OF WIGHT...NORTHEASTERN SUSSEX AND SURRY COUNTIES
THROUGH 745 PM EDT...

At 657 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Wakefield, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Wakefield and Dendron around 705 PM EDT.
  Elberon around 715 PM EDT.
  Surry around 725 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Vicksville, Rushmere,
Booth Fork, Carsley, Pons, Berlin, Spring Grove, Ellis Fork, Manry,
and Delk Crossroads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
southeastern and east central Virginia.

&&

LAT...LON 3689 7706 3695 7714 3723 7694 3723 7693
      3722 7691 3709 7666 3678 7702
TIME...MOT...LOC 2257Z 213DEG 21KT 3694 7701

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Butner