Flash Flood Warning 8, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
347 PM EDT Mon May 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Convection will continue through tonight in association with a
slow moving/cutoff low pressure system and attendant surface
front. Drier weather returns Tuesday through early Thursday
after the front moves through. Another period of unsettled
weather is possible later Thursday into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 311 PM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect for a majority of the
  forecast area through 9 PM.

- Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms across the forecast
  area, with the main threats hail and wind.

- Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall, with isolated instances
  of flash flooding possible.

Convection has started to bubble across central NC and is moving
into the southern piedmont and south-central VA counties. Dew points
are in the upper 50s to lower 60s throughout the forecast area, with
temperatures of in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. A pseudo dry
line is draped across the piedmont, and there is a sharp gradient of
instability, with 1000-2000 J/kg of ML CAPE found on the eastern
side of the boundary. Storms to our south have displayed impressive
hail cores, which aligns with large hail and winds being the main
threat for the day.

Strong to severe storms will continue to move through the forecast
area this afternoon and evening, and their trajectory will generally
be a north to northeast motion. The upper low remains firmly in
place across the Tennessee River Valley region due to the current
omega blocking pattern. An embedded shortwave is rounding the
eastern periphery of the main upper low near the Mid-Atlantic
region. This shortwave is working to enhance the developing storms
with extra support aloft. Southeast to south flow will continue is
pumping moisture into the region. This afternoon and evening's
environment will continue to feature modest shear, ML CAPE values of
1000-2000 J/kg, and good low-level lapse rates between 6.5 C/km to 7
C/km. SPC has a majority of the forecast area in a Slight Risk (2/5)
today, with the main threats being large hail and isolated damaging
wind gusts. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for a majority
of the forecast through 9 pm. The areas not in the watch at this
time include far SE VA and NE NC, as well as the Eastern Shore as
storms are not expected to reach these areas until later when peak
heating has tapered off. While confidence is lower in these areas
seeing storms reach severe criteria in these areas, we cannot rule
out stronger storms developing. Storm development will be more
scattered to start, so rainfall totals across the forecast area will
vary widely based on the location of any storms. Storms may start to
congeal later this evening and produce some isolated instances of
flash-flooding. WPC has placed our area in a Marginal Risk for
excessive rainfall.

The upper low will begin to lift northwards tonight. As this occurs,
the front associated with the surface low will finally move through
the area, bringing a drier airmass behind it. Storms should end
before midnight, with some trailing lighter rain possible. Skies
will start to clear out as the front moves through, but partly to
mostly cloudy skies will prevail overnight. Temperatures will drop
into the lower to mid 50s W and in the upper 50s to lower 60s E.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 311 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Unsettled weather is expected to quiet down Tuesday and
  Wednesday.

The front should move completely through by early Tuesday afternoon.
Not much of an airmass change is expected in terms of temperatures,
with highs forecast to drop into the 50s Tuesday night and rebound
quickly back into the mid/upper 70s to near 80 degrees on Wednesday.
The upper low will gradually weaken and lift northeastwards between
Tuesday and Wednesday as the omega block finally breaks down, and
high pressure will build in behind it. Rain chances will fall to
single digits for most of the area through Thursday morning, with
rain-free conditions and partly cloudy to mostly clear skies
expected through at least the first part of Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 311 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- The unsettled weather pattern resumes late Thursday into
  Friday.

By Thursday morning, global models suggest that a sharp trough will
dig down across the Northeast, leading to yet another upper cut-off
low lingering around the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a frontal
boundary will be approaching the region from the west. The
combination of the approaching from and upper low could cause
another round of unsettled weather mainly Thursday into Friday when
moisture is at its best. This upper low will have less moisture to
work with heading into the weekend as high pressure builds into the
lower levels behind a front. Much drier air will spill down from
Canada and persistent northwesterly flow is forecast to bring cooler
temperatures to the area. The NW flow will keep high temperatures
suppressed in the upper 60s to lower 70s Friday through the weekend.
Low temperatures will drop into the lower to mid 50s by Thursday
night, falling further into the upper 40s to lower to mid 50s by
Friday night. The aforementioned upper low will quickly lift
northeastwards Saturday morning, and high pressure will continue to
build in its wake. This will lead to moderating temperatures and
lowered rain chances. High temperatures are forecast to return to
the upper 70s to near 80 degrees by the end of the weekend. Rain
chances will be highest across NE NC, but will remain slight at
best.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Monday...

This afternoon, SCT to BKN MVFR CIGs (~1500 to 2500 ft) are
across most of the TAF sites. We likely see some brief
improvement to VFR over the next few hours (outside of SBY
which remains MVFR). In addition, showers and thunderstorms are
developing south of the area and will likely overspread later
this afternoon into the first part of the night (highest
confidence at RIC). A few storms may be strong to severe, which
will result in the potential for brief sub-VFR VIS, strong wind
gusts, and potentially large hail. After showers/storms
dissipate, another round of fog/low stratus is possible late
tonight into Tuesday morning. As of now, the highest confidence
to see IFR conditions is at SBY, with lesser certainty at the
other sites. Conditions improve to VFR at all sites later
Tuesday morning.

Outlook: Conditions improve to VFR through midweek as high
pressure returns.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 345 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-advisory conditions will prevail through the middle of the
week.

An upper level low remains over the Tennessee River Valley along
with high pressure well offshore. A surface low pressure system
continues to linger to the west of the area through Tuesday, along
with an associated stationary front. A weak boundary moved through
the southern coastal waters this morning, leaving the southern-most
seas elevated between 5 and 6 ft. The SCA covering the elevated seas
will be allowed to expire at 4 PM today as seas have decreased to
mostly 3 to 4 ft, occasionally 5 ft for all of the coastal waters.
Additionally, waves are currently 1 to 2 ft in the Ches. Bay. Winds
are mostly S/SSE in the southern coastal waters and the bay, but
have shifted to be W/SW off the Eastern Shore around 10 to 15 kt.
There is a chance of storms developing this evening, which could
produce locally higher wind gusts and hail.

The low pressure will lift NE Tuesday and Wednesday, allowing the
stationary front to the west to pass through the area as a weak cold
front. Model guidance continues to support sub-SCA conditions
remaining with winds shifting from SSE ahead of the front on Tuesday
to the WNW late Tuesday into Wednesday. Waves and seas will remain
sub-SCA around 1 to 2 ft in the bay and 2 to 3 ft in the coastal
waters. A backdoor front could potentially move through the waters
towards the end of the week, but confidence remains low on strength
and timing.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ658.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HET/NB
NEAR TERM...NB
SHORT TERM...NB
LONG TERM...NB
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...KMC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
127 PM EDT Mon May 5 2025

NCZ012>014-030>032-VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-096-
509>525-061730-
Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-Fluvanna-
Prince Edward-Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-
Nottoway-Amelia-Powhatan-Westmoreland-Richmond-Northumberland-
Lancaster-Brunswick-Dinwiddie-Prince George-Charles City-New Kent-
Gloucester-Middlesex-Mathews-Greensville-Sussex-Surry-James City-
Southampton-Isle of Wight-Suffolk-Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-
Western Hanover-Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen-
Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-York-Newport News-
Hampton/Poquoson-
127 PM EDT Mon May 5 2025

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 223 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina,
central Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern Virginia, north
central Virginia, south central Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

MDZ021>025-NCZ015>017-102-VAZ095-097>100-061730-
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches-
Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-Eastern Currituck-
Norfolk/Portsmouth-Chesapeake-Virginia Beach-Accomack-Northampton-
127 PM EDT Mon May 5 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, northeast
North Carolina, eastern Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
346 PM EDT Mon May 5 2025

VAZ087-088-092-052030-
Sussex VA-Southampton VA-Greensville VA-
346 PM EDT Mon May 5 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL GREENSVILLE...WEST
CENTRAL SOUTHAMPTON AND SOUTHWESTERN SUSSEX COUNTIES AND THE CITY OF
EMPORIA THROUGH 430 PM EDT...

At 345 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms over Dahlia, moving north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail, and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible. Reduced visibility and minor flooding possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Emporia and Claresville around 350 PM EDT.
  Green Plain around 400 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Adams Grove, Gray,
Grizzard, Lanes Corner, Yale, Fields Crossroads, Bryants Corner,
Emporia Reservoir, Cowie Corner, and Hilda.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
northeastern North Carolina...and southeastern Virginia.

&&

LAT...LON 3655 7760 3687 7759 3685 7728 3654 7741
TIME...MOT...LOC 1945Z 188DEG 16KT 3659 7751

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Butner

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
351 PM EDT Mon May 5 2025

VAZ080-513-514-052030-
Western Chesterfield VA-Dinwiddie VA-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights) VA-
351 PM EDT Mon May 5 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CHESTERFIELD AND
NORTH CENTRAL DINWIDDIE COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM EDT...

At 351 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Sutherland, or near Dinwiddie, moving north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small trees and blow around
         unsecured objects. Wind impacting handling of high profile
         vehicles. Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Sutherland around 400 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Pocahontas State Park,
Center Star, Church Road, Beach, Five Forks, Centralia, and
Chesterfield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
central and south central Virginia.

&&

LAT...LON 3723 7769 3724 7766 3726 7765 3729 7767
      3729 7768 3728 7769 3746 7769 3740 7739
      3739 7738 3708 7762 3711 7769
TIME...MOT...LOC 1951Z 195DEG 16KT 3715 7765

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

BROWN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
358 PM EDT Mon May 5 2025

VAZ079-080-087-052045-
Dinwiddie VA-Brunswick VA-Greensville VA-
358 PM EDT Mon May 5 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL GREENSVILLE...
SOUTHWESTERN DINWIDDIE AND NORTHEASTERN BRUNSWICK COUNTIES THROUGH
445 PM EDT...

At 358 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Radium, or 7 miles southwest of Purdy, moving north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail, and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible. Reduced visibility and minor flooding possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of north central
Greensville, southwestern Dinwiddie and northeastern Brunswick
Counties, including the following locations... Callaville, Cherry
Hill, Rawlings, Bufford Crossroads, Edgerton, Pleasant Shade,
Warfield, and Wharfs Store.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
south central and southeastern Virginia.

&&

LAT...LON 3701 7752 3691 7755 3688 7762 3686 7759
      3671 7761 3671 7778 3702 7780
TIME...MOT...LOC 1958Z 186DEG 16KT 3676 7770

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Butner

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
418 PM EDT Mon May 5 2025

VAZ080>082-088-513-514-516-052100-
Charles City VA-Western Chesterfield VA-Prince George VA-
Dinwiddie VA-Sussex VA-Eastern Henrico VA-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights) VA-
418 PM EDT Mon May 5 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CHESTERFIELD...WEST
CENTRAL CHARLES CITY...WESTERN PRINCE GEORGE...SOUTHEASTERN
HENRICO...NORTHWESTERN SUSSEX AND NORTHEASTERN DINWIDDIE COUNTIES...
THE CITY OF COLONIAL HEIGHTS...THE CITY OF HOPEWELL AND THE CITY OF
PETERSBURG THROUGH 500 PM EDT...

At 418 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Carson, or 10 miles southwest of Disputanta, moving north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail, and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible. Reduced visibility and minor flooding possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Petersburg around 435 PM EDT.
  Ettrick and Matoaca around 445 PM EDT.
  Fort Gregg-Adams around 450 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Burgess, Wayside,
Birchett Estate, Addison, Reams, Jordan Point Country Club,
Petersburg National Battlefield, Pocahontas State Park, New Bohemia,
and Richard Bland College.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
central, south central, southeastern and east central Virginia.

&&

LAT...LON 3697 7723 3694 7747 3740 7758 3743 7718
TIME...MOT...LOC 2018Z 169DEG 18KT 3703 7738

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

NB

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