Gale Warning 20, NWS Juneau, AK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
306 PM AKST Mon Jan 6 2025

.SHORT TERM...Well developed wave with an atmospheric river in
the flow pattern has the low center passing Kodiak Island this
afternoon the front is moving through the central gulf coast and
the remainder will move east across the panhandle overnight and
early Tuesday. 1.5 to 3 inches is expected from the front with the
higher totals for the northeast gulf coast and northern
panhandle. Shower activity will diminish behind the main front
Tuesday. Winds will also be weakening to under 25 kt for the gulf
waters later half Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...A series of lows continue to track into the Alaskan
Gulf continuing a very active and warm period. After the current
strong low in gulf dissipates, there will be a slight break in
precipitation and winds before the next strong low arrives late
Wednesday into Thursday. Heavy rain is expected Thursday brining 2
to 4 inches of precipitation, with potential higher amounts near
the northeastern gulf coast. The main impacts from this strong low
will be the chance of rising creeks and streams, to above
bankfull, with snow melt and additional rain. Temperatures stay
above normal values allowing for this continued snow melt to
occur. Higher elevations, along the Haines and Klondike Highways,
may see heavy snow as well. Although, snow levels will continue to
rise potentially decreasing snow amounts for the highways.

As for winds, the low moving into the gulf late Wednesday into
Thursday is another potential storm force low. The strongest winds
are going to be located along the coast with seas as high as 30 to
35 ft. After the Thursday low, the pattern continues to stay active
as a series of lows track along the Aleutian Islands, heading toward
southeast Alaska.

&&

.AVIATION...Conditions deteriorate overnight as a hurricane force
low moves into the Gulf driving strong winds across the
Panhandle. LLWS continues to be the primary threat for aviation
operations along with an MVFR cloud deck associated with RA. AAWU
has most of the coast under MOD ISOL SEV low level turbulence.
LLWS and turbulence improve Tuesday afternoon but conditions
remain MVFR to IFR from +RA.

&&

.MARINE...Confidence remains high that a Storm Force low will move into the
Gulf through Monday, bringing widespread sustained southeasterly
severe- Gales to the panhandle Gulf and coastal waters, increasing
to Storm Force as the front nears the coastline. Fresh seas of
30ft to 35ft are expected. Mariners operating in the Inner
Channels late Monday and Tuesday can expect near- Gale to Gale
force southeasterly winds for exposed areas like Chatham and
Clarence Straits, and fresh to strong breezes for inland channels
such as Stephens Passage and Lynn Canal. Winds and waves decrease
Wednesday, but another strong system will move into the Gulf
Thursday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Pair of atmospheric rivers inbound early part of the
week based on increasing confidence of the mid and long range
models. First feature for Tuesday has a small chance of flooding
issues. It does however prime the region, and start the snowmelt
process. The second feature will take advantage of the prep, and
increased snow levels and rain to add more snow melt into the
rivers and streams.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ317.
     Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM AKST Tuesday
     for AKZ318.
     Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM AKST Tuesday
     for AKZ319.
     Strong Wind through late tonight for AKZ323.
     Strong Wind from 6 PM this evening to midnight AKST tonight for
     AKZ325.
     Strong Wind from 6 PM to 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ327.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ652-662>664-671-672.
     Gale Warning for PKZ036-053-641>644-651-661.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-031>035.

&&

SHORT TERM...Bezenek
LONG TERM....EAB
AVIATION...AP
MARINE...Bezenek
HYDROLOGY...Bezenek

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