Gale Warning 18, NWS Juneau, AK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
306 PM AKST Mon Jan 6 2025

.SHORT TERM...Well developed wave with an atmospheric river in
the flow pattern has the low center passing Kodiak Island this
afternoon the front is moving through the central gulf coast and
the remainder will move east across the panhandle overnight and
early Tuesday. 1.5 to 3 inches is expected from the front with the
higher totals for the northeast gulf coast and northern
panhandle. Shower activity will diminish behind the main front
Tuesday. Winds will also be weakening to under 25 kt for the gulf
waters later half Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...A series of lows continue to track into the Alaskan
Gulf continuing a very active and warm period. After the current
strong low in gulf dissipates, there will be a slight break in
precipitation and winds before the next strong low arrives late
Wednesday into Thursday. Heavy rain is expected Thursday brining 2
to 4 inches of precipitation, with potential higher amounts near
the northeastern gulf coast. The main impacts from this strong low
will be the chance of rising creeks and streams, to above
bankfull, with snow melt and additional rain. Temperatures stay
above normal values allowing for this continued snow melt to
occur. Higher elevations, along the Haines and Klondike Highways,
may see heavy snow as well. Although, snow levels will continue to
rise potentially decreasing snow amounts for the highways.

As for winds, the low moving into the gulf late Wednesday into
Thursday is another potential storm force low. The strongest winds
are going to be located along the coast with seas as high as 30 to
35 ft. After the Thursday low, the pattern continues to stay active
as a series of lows track along the Aleutian Islands, heading toward
southeast Alaska.

&&

.AVIATION...Conditions deteriorate overnight as a hurricane force
low moves into the Gulf driving strong winds across the
Panhandle. LLWS continues to be the primary threat for aviation
operations along with an MVFR cloud deck associated with RA. AAWU
has most of the coast under MOD ISOL SEV low level turbulence.
LLWS and turbulence improve Tuesday afternoon but conditions
remain MVFR to IFR from +RA.

&&

.MARINE...Confidence remains high that a Storm Force low will move into the
Gulf through Monday, bringing widespread sustained southeasterly
severe- Gales to the panhandle Gulf and coastal waters, increasing
to Storm Force as the front nears the coastline. Fresh seas of
30ft to 35ft are expected. Mariners operating in the Inner
Channels late Monday and Tuesday can expect near- Gale to Gale
force southeasterly winds for exposed areas like Chatham and
Clarence Straits, and fresh to strong breezes for inland channels
such as Stephens Passage and Lynn Canal. Winds and waves decrease
Wednesday, but another strong system will move into the Gulf
Thursday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Pair of atmospheric rivers inbound early part of the
week based on increasing confidence of the mid and long range
models. First feature for Tuesday has a small chance of flooding
issues. It does however prime the region, and start the snowmelt
process. The second feature will take advantage of the prep, and
increased snow levels and rain to add more snow melt into the
rivers and streams.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ317.
     Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM AKST Tuesday
     for AKZ318.
     Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM AKST Tuesday
     for AKZ319.
     Strong Wind through late tonight for AKZ323.
     Strong Wind from 6 PM this evening to midnight AKST tonight for
     AKZ325.
     Strong Wind from 6 PM to 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ327.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ652-662>664-671-672.
     Gale Warning for PKZ036-053-641>644-651-661.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-031>035.

&&

SHORT TERM...Bezenek
LONG TERM....EAB
AVIATION...AP
MARINE...Bezenek
HYDROLOGY...Bezenek

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Juneau AK
155 PM AKST Mon Jan 6 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 AM     Snow             2.5 SE Yakutat          59.54N 139.70W
01/04/2025  M6.4 Inch        Yakutat            AK   Cocorahs

            Cocorahs station AK-YK-1 Yakutat 2.5 SE
            measured 6.4 inches of snow had fallen by
            Saturday morning.

1100 AM     Avalanche        1 S White Pass          59.62N 135.16W
01/05/2025                   Skagway            AK   Dept of Highways

            Klondike Highway DOT reported an avalanche
            occurred at 14.3 mile, closing the road. The
            road was reopened at 150pm.

0500 AM     Snow             1 E Gustavus            58.41N 135.71W
01/06/2025  M5.8 Inch        Hoonah-Angoon      AK   CO-OP Observer

            CO-OP Observer station GUSA2 1.1 E Gustavus.

0700 AM     Snow             Haines Customs          59.45N 136.35W
01/06/2025  M4.7 Inch        Haines             AK   CO-OP Observer

            CO-OP Observer station at Haines Customs
            measured 4.7 inches of snow over the
            previous 2 days. Snow had ended.

0800 AM     Snow             Haines                  59.24N 135.45W
01/06/2025  M9.7 Inch        Haines             AK   CO-OP Observer

            CO-OP Observer station Haines No. 2 measured
            2.6 inches of snow Sunday morning, some of
            that from snow showers that occurred on
            Saturday, and another 7.1 inches by Monday
            morning when snow had ended. A glaze of ice
            was also noted.

0930 AM     Snow             1 NW Haines             59.24N 135.46W
01/06/2025  M9.0 Inch        Haines             AK   Trained Spotter

            Trained spotter reported 6 inches of new
            snow on Sunday by 1120pm followed by another
            3 inches by morning when snow had ended. 1
            inch of snow had fallen from separate
            showers on Saturday.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
157 PM AKST MON JAN 6 2025

AKZ317>327-071700-
CITY AND BOROUGH OF YAKUTAT-MUNICIPALITY OF SKAGWAY-HAINES
BOROUGH AND KLUKWAN-GLACIER BAY-EASTERN CHICHAGOF ISLAND-CAPE
FAIRWEATHER TO LISIANSKI STRAIT-CITY AND BOROUGH OF SITKA-
ADMIRALTY ISLAND-CITY AND BOROUGH OF JUNEAU-PETERSBURG BOROUGH-
WESTERN KUPREANOF ISLAND AND KUIU ISLAND-
157 PM AKST MON JAN 6 2025

...ACTIVE WET WEATHER POISED TO RETURN TO NORTHERN PANHANDLE...

A STRONG ATMOSPHERIC RIVER IS MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC ACROSS
THE GULF AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST OF ALASKA AND THEN DRIFTING
EAST INTO THE PANHANDLE. ANTICIPATED RAIN FALL FROM THIS FRONT
SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 3.5 INCHES. WARM AIR WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE, HOWEVER, NOT
EXPECTING TO SEE THE NORTHERN LYNN CANAL AREAS TO SEE THIS WARMING
UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING.

SNOW LEVELS FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE UP TO 2500 FEET BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, THE ARE GUSTAVUS AND JUNEAU AREAS THE FREEZING LEVELS
AREA LITTLE HIGHER AROUND 3000.  THE RAIN FALLING INTO THE SNOWPACK
AND WARMING WITH HIGHER TEMPERATURES WILL START TO INCREASE
SNOWMELT. STREAMS WILL INCREASE, BUT THREATS OF PONDING WILL THE
ISSUE WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM.

THE SECOND FEATURE IS AS STRONG OR STRONGER AND EXPECTED THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE HIGHER  (4000 TO 5000 FT ) AND
ADDITIONAL RAIN ( 1 TO 3 INCHES MORE ) WILL ADD MORE SNOWMELT.
STREAMS WILL BE RISING QUICKLY WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM, AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING DUE TO DRAINAGE ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE. SIGNIFICANT RIVER
RISES ARE MORE LIKELY WITH THIS SECOND EVENT AS THE FIRST EVENT
PRIMED THE RIVER AND SOIL CONDITIONS TO POSSIBLE PRODUCE BANKFUL TO
FLOODING CONDITIONS.

BRIAN.BEZENEK