Winter Storm Warning 6, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
600 AM AKDT Mon Apr 14 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Gusty winds will linger through this morning but are expected to
gradually continue to decrease. Many locations over higher
elevations experienced wind gusts around 70 to 80 mph, while the
Anchorage Bowl and many low lands peaked around 45 mph. Palmer
received an observation of 60 mph.

Cold air over the relatively warm water in the northern Gulf will
create very unstable conditions this morning. Moderate to heavy
precipitation will be confined to the coastal areas, with the
possibility of convective showers building on the upslope side of
coastal ranges. Conditions farther inland are expected to remain
drier due to downsloping in areas such as Anchorage and western
Kenai.

As the system continues out of the area to the east, Tuesday
brings more unstable condition, though overall precipitation
chances are expected to decrease for the day. Upslope flow could
bring lingering showers for Susitna Valley, Talkeetna northward
and along eastern Prince William Sound and northeastern Gulf. The
next system to bring widespread wind and precipitation resume with
the arrival of the next North Pacific low on Wednesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Thursday morning)...

Snow showers across the northern Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN) and
interior Bristol Bay will begin to diminish later this morning and
become more confined to the higher terrain of the Alaska
Range/Aleutian Range this afternoon. A weak shortwave lifting
across the eastern Bering today will give the Kuskokwim Delta a
round of light snow showers this afternoon and evening before it
lifts northward into Western Alaska.

All attention then shifts to a powerful North Pacific low that
will send its front into the Eastern Aleutians and southern AKPEN
by Tuesday morning and the rest of the AKPEN by late Tuesday
morning. Confidence in the low track has increased in that
Unalaska will most likely remain on the western/cold side of the
storm. Therefore, they will maintain a northerly wind and cold air
with the storm. The southern AKPEN, while they will start out as
snow Tuesday morning, will see a changeover to rain/snow mix and
eventually all rain Tuesday afternoon and evening. Unalaska looks
to see the most impacts from this storm due to being within the
best moisture axis, maintaining cold air with the northerly winds,
not to mention that the northerly winds will be strong and gusty.
Snow, blowing snow, and poor visibility are looking likely for
Unalaska Tuesday morning through Thursday morning with the
heaviest snow falling Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening.
There is still a little bit of uncertainty with regards to Akutan
and how much snow they might see. Due to being closer to the storm
track, warmer air could work in and change snow over to rain/snow
mix Tuesday evening which will cut into snow accumulations. Heavy
snow is still possible there, especially if cold air hangs on
longer. Nikolski looks to be cold enough for all snow, but looks
to be a little too far west and out of the best moisture axis for
heavy snow. With all that, have issued a Winter Storm Watch for
the Eastern Aleutians from early Tuesday morning through early
Thursday morning for the heavy snow threat, blowing snow, reduced
visibility, and strong northerly winds.

The front then makes it to mainland Southwest Alaska by Tuesday
afternoon. Precipitation looks to initially start out as snow
across Bristol Bay then quickly change to rain/snow mix and rain
Tuesday evening as warmer air works in from Kamishak Gap. There
is still uncertainty with regards to the progression of the front
into the Kuskokwim Delta for Wednesday. There is the possibility
of some snow and blowing snow into the Kuskokwim Delta Coast
Wednesday morning if moisture is there by then. Warmer air looks
to advance north into the Kuskokwim Delta and Kuskokwim Valley by
Wednesday afternoon and evening which will change precipitation to
rain/snow mix and rain by then. Showery and unsettled conditions
continue into Thursday across the southwestern mainland, AKPEN,
and Eastern Aleutians. Meanwhile, the next front approaches and
moves over the western Bering and Western Aleutians Wednesday
night into Thursday bringing rain to the area. Stay tuned for
forecast updates as the active pattern continues across the
Eastern Aleutians and southwestern mainland.

&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Thu through Sun)...

Models are consistently calling for a large area of low pressure
to move north from the North Pacific next week. This system is
expected to move east along the Aleutians into the AKPEN by
Thursday, before lifting into the interior on Friday, then
weakening as it moves off to the east. This low appears to have a
strong gradient and will likely bring gale force winds to south
central Thursday and Friday, along with significant rainfall to
coastal regions, transitioning to heavy snows at higher
elevations. As the low moves out of south central next weekend,
conditions will improve from west to east across the area, with
only lingering spotty showers for south central moving into the
weekend.

- Baker

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Large pressure rises and strong instability due to a low
pressure system will allow for a period of strong southeasterly
winds over the terminal early this morning; gusting up to 45 kts.
The main uncertainty is the potential for isolated higher gusts.
This period of gusty winds will be brief, but could linger on for
a couple more hours if the low pressure system moves slower than
anticipated. Winds will become light and northerly again by Monday
morning. Ceilings will remain at VFR levels for the forecast
period, but there is a small possibility for very light rain after
the winds calm down, potentially dropping ceilings a couple
thousand feet, but still remaining VFR.

&&

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
107 PM AKDT Mon Apr 14 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0136 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst Prominence Point        61.07N 149.77W
04/14/2025  M83 MPH          Anchorage          AK   Mesonet

            Peak winds gusting to 83 mph occurred
            between 1:30 to 1:45 am.

&&

PP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
119 PM AKDT Mon Apr 14 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0758 AM     Snow             Valdez                  61.11N 146.21W
04/14/2025  M2.5 Inch        Chugach            AK   Trained Spotter

            Liquid equivalent 0.41 in. Snowing.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
202 PM AKDT Mon Apr 14 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst Glen Alps               61.10N 149.69W
04/14/2025  M76 MPH          Anchorage          AK   Mesonet

            GAHA2.

0244 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst Rabbit Creek            61.07N 149.72W
04/14/2025  M75 MPH          Anchorage          AK   Mesonet

            G5830.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
228 PM AKDT Mon Apr 14 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg 1 N Upper Potter Valley 61.06N 149.77W
04/14/2025                   Anchorage          AK   NWS Employee

            Large pine tree estimated 12 to 15 inches in
            diameter downed alongside Bluebell Dr. Time
            estimated based on timing of strongest winds
            in the area.

&&

PP