Storm Warning 90, NWS Anchorage, AK

691 
FZAK52 PAFC 241137
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
337 AM AKDT Wed Sep 24 2025

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-250030-
337 AM AKDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 984 mb low 90 nm east of Port Heiden exits into the Gulf by Wed
afternoon. A trough extending west of the low over the eastern 
Bering crosses the Alaska Peninsula into the North Pacific by Thu 
afternoon. Another low moving over Northeast Russia reaches 60 nm
north of Mekoryuk at 989 mb Fri morning.

$$

PKZ750-250030-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape out to 15 NM-
337 AM AKDT Wed Sep 24 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ751-250030-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape from 15 to 100 NM-
337 AM AKDT Wed Sep 24 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft subsiding to 13 ft in the
afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ752-250030-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi out to 15 NM-
337 AM AKDT Wed Sep 24 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ753-250030-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi from 15 to 100 NM-
337 AM AKDT Wed Sep 24 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ754-250030-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
337 AM AKDT Wed Sep 24 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt becoming NW 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ755-250030-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 100 NM-
337 AM AKDT Wed Sep 24 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
22 ft subsiding to 16 ft after midnight.
.THU...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ756-250030-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 NM-
337 AM AKDT Wed Sep 24 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...W wind 20 kt becoming NW 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11
ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ757-250030-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon from 15 to 60 NM-
337 AM AKDT Wed Sep 24 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming W 25 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ758-250030-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
337 AM AKDT Wed Sep 24 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
20 ft subsiding to 15 ft after midnight. Rain showers.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ759-250030-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 70 NM-
337 AM AKDT Wed Sep 24 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ770-250030-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side out to 15 NM-
337 AM AKDT Wed Sep 24 2025

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft subsiding to 12 ft after
midnight.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ772-250030-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
337 AM AKDT Wed Sep 24 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
21 ft subsiding to 13 ft after midnight.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ771-250030-
Unalaska Bay-
337 AM AKDT Wed Sep 24 2025

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 50 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ773-250030-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
337 AM AKDT Wed Sep 24 2025

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ774-250030-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side from 15 to 85 NM-
337 AM AKDT Wed Sep 24 2025

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft subsiding to 11 ft after
midnight.
.THU...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ775-250030-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side out to 15 NM-
337 AM AKDT Wed Sep 24 2025

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
21 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ776-250030-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
337 AM AKDT Wed Sep 24 2025

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
24 ft subsiding to 18 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ777-250030-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacfic Side out to 15 NM-
337 AM AKDT Wed Sep 24 2025

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
18 ft subsiding to 13 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ778-250030-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
337 AM AKDT Wed Sep 24 2025

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
21 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ780-250030-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side out to 15 NM-
337 AM AKDT Wed Sep 24 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ781-250030-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
337 AM AKDT Wed Sep 24 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft subsiding to 12 ft in the
afternoon.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ782-250030-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
337 AM AKDT Wed Sep 24 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ783-250030-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
337 AM AKDT Wed Sep 24 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ784-250030-
Adak to Kiska Bering Side-
337 AM AKDT Wed Sep 24 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ785-250030-
Adak to Kiska Pacific Side-
337 AM AKDT Wed Sep 24 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ786-250030-
Kiska to Attu Bering Side-
337 AM AKDT Wed Sep 24 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ787-250030-
Kiska to Attu Pacific Side-
337 AM AKDT Wed Sep 24 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ766-250030-
Pribilof Islands Nearshore Waters-
337 AM AKDT Wed Sep 24 2025

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ760-250030-
Bristol Bay greater than 15 NM-
337 AM AKDT Wed Sep 24 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8
ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ761-250030-
Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 NM-
337 AM AKDT Wed Sep 24 2025

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ762-250030-
Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Pierce out to 15 NM-
337 AM AKDT Wed Sep 24 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5
ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ763-250030-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 NM-
337 AM AKDT Wed Sep 24 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ764-250030-
Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 NM-
337 AM AKDT Wed Sep 24 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ765-250030-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
337 AM AKDT Wed Sep 24 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ767-250030-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
337 AM AKDT Wed Sep 24 2025

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...E of Saint Matthew Island, NW wind 20 kt. W of Saint
Matthew Island, W wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
629 AM AKDT Tue Sep 23 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Discussion:

A trough moving across interior Alaska overnight has resulted in
light snow or a rain-snow mix along the central Alaska Range,
including the Parks Highway north of Cantwell and the Richardson
Highway north of Paxson. Isabel Pass webcams this morning show
some light accumulations near the pass summit. Scattered showers
have also begun to increase in coverage over the Talkeetna
Mountains and the Chugach Mountains along Prince William Sound as
a mesolow drifts towards Resurrection Bay. This low will move
inland on the Kenai Peninsula later this morning and then the Cook
Inlet later today helping with development of surface troughing
over the inlet by tonight. Precipitation this morning remains
tricky with scattered showers lifted northwards over the
Talkeetnas and eastern Susitna Valley as transient ridging pushing
through ahead of the front lifting across the Aleutians and AKPEN
today.

Dominant flow will shift from north and west to more southerly ahead
of the front. Isentropic ascent will increase over the Kenai
Peninsula and Western Prince Sound this afternoon resulting in a
steady area of showers developing, especially along the northern
Kenai Mountains and the coastal areas of the Chugach Mountains.
With snow levels of 3200 to 3800 ft, higher terrain will see some
snow while lowers elevations will remain all rain. Snow levels are
slightly lower on the west side of the Chugach Mountains and
could see a few snowflakes this morning for the upper Anchorage
Hillside, though better chances remain over the higher elevations
of the Talkeetna Mountains. Temperatures will warm this morning
for lower elevations as southerly flow ramps up.

The aforementioned front will lift steadily northwards with rain
spreading across Kodiak Island this evening and up along the Kenai
Peninsula overnight. Strong easterly, downsloping winds will limit
precipitation over the western Kenai, Anchorage Bowl, and north into
the Mat Valley Wednesday with the coastal areas seeing the bulk of
precipitation. Gale force winds will accompany the front all the way
north to the northern Gulf coastline.

- PP

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: This morning through Friday morning)...

The forecast continues to remain on track for the near term. The
key message this morning is a Special Weather Statement is in
effect for the Central/Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula for
strong, gusty winds lasting through Wednesday night.

Currently, a deepening ~975 mb storm-force low is slowly making
progress across the west-central Bering Sea as its occluded front
continues to quickly sweep across the Aleutian Chain and Pribilof
Islands. Saint Paul recorded a wind gust at 506 AM of 61 mph. The
front is accompanied by an axis of moderate rain with its
moisture fetch originating from the tropics. QPF amounts across
the Chain and Alaska Peninsula are on track to be fairly uniform
due to the fast movement of the front, with most locations seeing
around one inch of rainfall. Aloft, a well defined 500 mb
shortwave is moving over the Western and Central Aleutians as mid
level water vapor imagery reveals dry air intrusion working in on
the backside of the low, which has led to the development of a
westerly and strengthening 40-45 kt sting jet in the wake of the
front.

By this afternoon/evening, the front weakens somewhat as it moves
closer to Southwest Alaska, but will still bring gusty easterly
winds, especially through Kamishak Gap and into interior Bristol
Bay. On the heels of the front, the now storm-force sting jet will
make its way across the southern Bering Sea, clipping the Central
Aleutians. Although the main swath of strongest winds will likely
remain just to the north of the Chain, westerly winds look to
peak this afternoon for Adak and Atka with gusts up to 70 mph and
slowly diminish overnight into Wednesday morning. Winds for
Nikolski, Unalaska, and Akutan are on pace to peak late this
afternoon and evening, and gradually decrease through Wednesday
morning. As the front progresses across the southern Alaska
Peninsula, locations near False Pass, Cold Bay, and King Cove will
likely see 60-65 mph gusts with winds peaking late Wednesday
morning and diminishing through Wednesday evening. Rainfall wise,
though the heaviest rain will remain over the Bering Sea and
Aleutian Islands, much of Southwest Alaska will see rain showers
from tonight through Thursday as the occluded low center crosses
Bristol Bay and moves into the Gulf.

There is some degree of uncertainty with how exactly winds will
be impacted by terrain. In Adak and Atka, the westerly terrain
gaps will likely enhance the westerly winds behind the front.
Around Cold Bay, southeasterly terrain gaps will likely enhance
southeasterly winds along the front. However, there will likely be
a blocking component, especially as areas like Unalaska and False
Pass may see some sheltering from the mountains to their
immediate west. As such, actual winds may deviate a bit from
forecast wind speeds (especially near gaps and passes), but
overall confidence is high that it will be a windy few days as
this storm moves through.

Guidance shows that a potent upper level low/trough begins to dig
southeastward Thursday afternoon and reaches Southwest Alaska by
Friday morning. At the surface, a frontal wave of low pressure
forms as it aligns with upper level divergence just downwind of
the upper trough. This system will bring in a shot of cooler air
into the region, and 850 mb temperature anomalies suggests the
region will be below average heading into the weekend. Along with
cooler temperatures, a round of precipitation arrives Friday
morning for parts of Southwest Alaska, in particular the Kuskokwim
Delta and western Kuskokwim Valley locations. Current models
support a rain/snow mix with temperatures in the mid 30s for some
interior locations, with warmer temperatures and rain for most
coastal areas.

-AM/KC

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

Active weather continues in the long term forecast. Models seem
to be in best agreement with a polar low dipping southward across
the Seward Peninsula and into Southwest Alaska late Friday into
Saturday. This will be accompanied by a cooler air mass
overspreading the Kuskokwim Valley and Greater Bristol Bay
regions. Cooler air will be slower to filter into Southcentral
Alaska, blocked by the Alaska Range. The same low moves into the
Gulf of Alaska through Sunday. Precipitation chances along the
Gulf Coast into Southeast Alaska will persist through the duration
of the long term forecast. Precipitation may also spread further
inland at times, coincident with the passage of smaller shortwaves
passing through interior Alaska.

Further west models are in somewhat less agreement with the
synoptic pattern. There will be a weakened pressure gradient
across the Eastern Aleutians with continued northerly gap winds to
start the forecast period on Friday. The gradient should quickly
weaken thereafter with winds subsiding. The bigger uncertainty is
with the potential development of a strong upper low over the
Western Aleutians over the weekend. All eyes are on Typhoon
Neoguri, currently meandering east of Japan. Where the remnants of
this active tropical system go over the weekend and how it
interacts with the surrounding environment will determine whether
a strong low with gusty winds materializes over the weekend/early
next week, or just another prototypical Bering low moves into the
region. The EC and Canadian have been the most aggressive with
amplifying this system over the Aleutians. Meanwhile, the GFS has
been weaker and more in line with a typical Bering low for this
time of year. There is a high degree of uncertainty in how
everything will come together over the weekend and beyond, thus
will continue to monitor until better model agreement occurs.

BL

&&
.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR ceilings and visibility may dip into MVFR as showers
increase in coverage this morning and early afternoon and move
over the terminal. Northerly winds will shift to more
northeasterly then southeasterly by this evening.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
355 PM AKDT Tue Sep 23 2025

AKZ781-785-787-241400-
Southern Alaska Peninsula-Eastern Aleutians-Central Aleutians-
Including the cities of Cold Bay, Sand Point, False Pass,
Unalaska, Akutan, Nikolski, Atka, and Adak
355 PM AKDT Tue Sep 23 2025

...STRONG GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT...

A storm-force low continues to bring strong, westerly winds as it
moves across the Bering Sea through tomorrow. Forecast wind
speeds and timing:

- Central Aleutians (including Adak and Atka): Through tonight,
  westerly winds gusting up to 70 mph. Winds slowly diminish
  through tomorrow morning.

- Eastern Aleutians (including Nikolski, Unalaska, and Akutan):
  Through tomorrow morning, westerly winds gusting up to 70 mph.
  Winds peak late tonight/early tomorrow morning and slowly
  diminish through tomorrow evening.

- Southern Alaska Peninsula (including False Pass, Cold Bay, King
  Cove): From tomorrow morning through tomorrow night, westerly
  winds gusting up to 65 mph. Winds peak late tomorrow afternoon
  and diminish through Thursday morning.