Gale Warning 549, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
516 AM AKDT Wed Sep 24 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Discussion:

The storm that has brought strong winds to portions of the Aleutians
and AKPEN has now shifted into the western Gulf with upper low now
centered just south of Kodiak Island. The associated front is now
lifting across the western Gulf bringing strong winds and widespread
rainfall over the region. Water vapor satellite imagery shows drier
air has wrapped into the center of the low with another intrusion of
dry air moving into the central Gulf. Models are is good agreement
with the upper low moving northwards over Kodiak Island before
shifting farther east into the northwest Gulf of the coast of the
Kenai Peninsula by Thursday morning. The front will race
northwards today, making it to the northern Gulf coast by this
evening. Gale force winds will accompany the front with the
potential for a period of Storm force winds this afternoon as
winds enhance just of the coast. Stout southerly winds ahead of
the front will back to easterly and increase in intensity as the
front nears. This easterly cross-barrier flow over the Kenai
Peninsula and western Chugach Mountains will lead to enhanced
downsloping on the leeward side. As such, precipitation will be
focused along the eastern Kenai Peninsula, Prince William Sound,
and northern Gulf coastal zones.

The southerly push of warmer air will help to bump up temperatures
and snow levels resulting in all but the highest terrain seeing
mainly rain. The western Kenai Peninsula up through the Mat Valley
will remain mainly downsloped, but may see a few of the stronger
showers work over the mountains and produce a few periods of light
rain or sprinkles. Ridgetop winds along the Kenai and Chugach
Mountains will be gusty this morning with gusts of 50 to 60 mph
before decreasing this afternoon. The upper Anchorage and Eagle
River Hillsides will see some gusty conditions today. The Copper
Basin will also see continued gusty conditions this morning before
southerly flow turns easterly.

The low will linger over the western Gulf near the Barren Islands
allowing for unsettled weather to continue for the coastal areas. A
reinforcing system drop down across the Bering before crossing the
Aleutians and becoming the new dominant low in the Gulf by the end
of the week.

- PP

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Gale force winds with storm force gusts will continue across the
southern Alaska Peninsula and Eastern Aleutians this morning, with
winds gradually diminishing through this afternoon. Widespread
small craft winds will continue over the next several days across
the central/eastern Bering Sea. Across Southwest Alaska, rain
chances and winds have been reduced as the low is forecast to
elongate, with most of the energy being shunted into the Gulf with
a developing triple point low. The pattern shifts with the next
low dropping south out of eastern Russia to skirt along the
Southwest Coast. There remains a fair amount of uncertainty with
the low track and its speed as it travels along the coast, though
there is a good chance for precipitation along the coast and
offshore winds.  A swath of cold air advects south across the
Bering Sea and Southwest Alaska Thursday through Saturday as the
low moves south, allowing for gales to redevelop in the
central/eastern Bering, tracking across the Pribilof Islands and
through the gaps and passes south of the Alaska Peninsula.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through Tuesday)...

Active weather will continue to be the mainstay through next week.
Out east, a big low pressure system that transited the AKPEN
Friday will move into the Gulf and slowly weaken through Monday as
it remains nearly stationary. Winds across mainland and most sea
locations are not expected to be strong, through some flow through
the Barren Islands may be elevated. Weak upper level waves may
rotate through the flow bringing showers to coastal locations, but
it is starting to look like there may be a reprieve from the
nearly continuous month of rain for the rest of the eastern
region. While there may be some light showers, it is looking as
though there will be more time of no rain than rain.

Further west, low pressure will dive from Norton Sound and merge
with the aforementioned Gulf of Alaska low into the weekend.
Meanwhile, high pressure south of Shemya will slowly drift east,
slowly dipping deeper into the Pacific. Between these two will be
strong northeasterly winds that will persist through for the AKPen
and western Alaskan coast. Beyond Sunday, model guidance falls
apart as they attempt to transition Typhoon Neoguri, which is
currently east of Japan, into an extra-tropical cyclone that
advances on our western domain. Present thinking is that it should
remain south of the Aleutians Monday and Tuesday, not making an
impact for the Bering. Because of this, weather should be dry for
most of the period for mainland, with cold northerly wind keeping
temperatures down.

&&
.AVIATION...

PANC...Weak LLWS remains possible through around 21z this
morning. However, there should be enough of a north-south pressure
gradient to keep the strongest southeasterly winds at mountain
top level away from the foothills of the Chugach Mountains and at
above 2000 ft elevation. Northerly winds at the surface of up to
10 kts will pick up at the terminal later this morning. Otherwise,
VFR conditions and light winds will persist through the TAF
period.

&&