Storm Warning 45, NWS Anchorage, AK

856 
FZAK52 PAFC 101234
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
334 AM AKST Mon Feb 10 2025

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-110115-
334 AM AKST Mon Feb 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 939 mb low 20 nm south of Amchitka this morning moves to 265 nm
northwest of Shemya at 947 mb by Tue morning. Its front reaches 
the Mainland Tue morning and dissipates.

$$

PKZ750-110115-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape out to 15 NM-
334 AM AKST Mon Feb 10 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ751-110115-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape from 15 to 100 NM-
334 AM AKST Mon Feb 10 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt becoming SE 35 kt after midnight. Seas
23 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ752-110115-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi out to 15 NM-
334 AM AKST Mon Feb 10 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt becoming S 20 kt after midnight. Seas 21
ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ753-110115-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi from 15 to 100 NM-
334 AM AKST Mon Feb 10 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt becoming S 20 kt after midnight. Seas
23 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ754-110115-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
334 AM AKST Mon Feb 10 2025

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ755-110115-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 100 NM-
334 AM AKST Mon Feb 10 2025

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ756-110115-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 NM-
334 AM AKST Mon Feb 10 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 45 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt becoming S wind 25 kt late. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ757-110115-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon from 15 to 60 NM-
334 AM AKST Mon Feb 10 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt becoming SE 30 kt late. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ758-110115-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
334 AM AKST Mon Feb 10 2025

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt. Gusts to 55 kt out of bays and passes. Seas 
7 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ759-110115-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 70 NM-
334 AM AKST Mon Feb 10 2025

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt after midnight. Seas 12
ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ770-110115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side out to 15 NM-
334 AM AKST Mon Feb 10 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ772-110115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
334 AM AKST Mon Feb 10 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ771-110115-
Unalaska Bay-
334 AM AKST Mon Feb 10 2025

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ773-110115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
334 AM AKST Mon Feb 10 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
18 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ774-110115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side from 15 to 85 NM-
334 AM AKST Mon Feb 10 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ775-110115-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side out to 15 NM-
334 AM AKST Mon Feb 10 2025

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
18 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ776-110115-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
334 AM AKST Mon Feb 10 2025

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ777-110115-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacfic Side out to 15 NM-
334 AM AKST Mon Feb 10 2025

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
22 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ778-110115-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
334 AM AKST Mon Feb 10 2025

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
22 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ780-110115-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side out to 15 NM-
334 AM AKST Mon Feb 10 2025

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ781-110115-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
334 AM AKST Mon Feb 10 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt becoming SE 25 kt after midnight. Seas
16 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ782-110115-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
334 AM AKST Mon Feb 10 2025

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ783-110115-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
334 AM AKST Mon Feb 10 2025

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 45 kt. Seas 27 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ784-110115-
Adak to Kiska Bering Side-
334 AM AKST Mon Feb 10 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ785-110115-
Adak to Kiska Pacific Side-
334 AM AKST Mon Feb 10 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft building to 28 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ786-110115-
Kiska to Attu Bering Side-
334 AM AKST Mon Feb 10 2025

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...S wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...E wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ787-110115-
Kiska to Attu Pacific Side-
334 AM AKST Mon Feb 10 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 40 kt in the afternoon. From
Shemya W, N wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
17 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. From Shemya W, SW wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
Rain showers.
.TUE...SW wind 35 kt. From Shemya W, SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...E wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ766-110115-
Pribilof Islands Nearshore Waters-
334 AM AKST Mon Feb 10 2025

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
14 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt becoming SE wind 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11
ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ760-110115-
Bristol Bay greater than 15 NM-
334 AM AKST Mon Feb 10 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 35 kt becoming E 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ761-110115-
Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 NM-
334 AM AKST Mon Feb 10 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 40 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ762-110115-
Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Pierce out to 15 NM-
334 AM AKST Mon Feb 10 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 45 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 35 kt becoming E 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas in
ice free waters 6 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.

$$

PKZ763-110115-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 NM-
334 AM AKST Mon Feb 10 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 45 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
in ice free waters 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.

$$

PKZ764-110115-
Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 NM-
334 AM AKST Mon Feb 10 2025

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 50 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft subsiding to 8 ft in the afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ765-110115-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
334 AM AKST Mon Feb 10 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ767-110115-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
334 AM AKST Mon Feb 10 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E of Saint Matthew Island, E wind 30 kt becoming SE 20 kt
in the afternoon. W of Saint Matthew Island, SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 
ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
447 AM AKST Sun Feb 9 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The weather forecast remains on track with a ridge across
mainland Southcentral keeping those areas dry and quiet through
the early half of this week. Meanwhile, rain will continue
primarily for Kodiak Island as multiple troughs lift north.
Chances for precipitation spread into portions of the south and
eastern Kenai Peninsula through at least Tuesday. Confidence is
high for the overall outlook, with slightly less confidence on the
northward and eastward spread of precipitation away from the
western Gulf.

Light rain showers and east to southeasterly winds linger for
Kodiak through the rest of this morning. Higher elevations across
the Island will continue to have snow as snow levels are not
expected to vary too much from around 1500 to 2500 feet over the
next couple days. A North Pacific low is lifting north toward the
Alaska Peninsula and Kodiak Island. Precipitation intensity will
increase as the trough arrives this afternoon and will last until
at least Monday morning. Winds across Kodiak Island are expected
to increase to gale force with the passage of this low this
afternoon. Easterly winds around the Barren Islands are expected
to peak around 50 to 60 mph Monday morning and again early Tuesday
morning when yet another trough lifts north Monday night into
Tuesday. Additional precipitation with the following trough could
be heavy at times. Rainfall totals over the next 24 hours are
expected to be around an inch for Kodiak. The next trough late
Monday through Tuesday could bring an additional two more inches.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Saturday Night through Tuesday Morning)...

Gusty winds continue across the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay
coasts as well as the AKPEN in response to a tightened pressure
gradient with a high pressure ridge remaining over mainland
Alaska. Any remaining showers over the Kuskokwim Delta are
expected to push northward through this morning, with another
round of showers expected Monday morning as an upper-level
shortwave moves through ahead of the next system.

Farther out west, a North Pacific low-pressure system is
currently rapidly intensifying south of the Aleutians, driven by a
large upper-level low off the coast of the Kamchatka Peninsula.
This upper-level low provides the broader steering flow for the
surface low, which is expected to gradually rotate northward,
drawing the occluded front into the Aleutians through this
morning. The northward movement of the low is enhanced by
divergence in the left exit region of a very strong 200 kt zonal
jet streak, which will also contribute to rapid deepening, with
central pressures expected to bottom out as low as 940 mb as it
crosses the western Aleutians later today. Gale-force winds will
spread across the entire Bering and Aleutian chain, extending to
the Southwest Coastline through Monday.

As the system intensifies, a secondary 120 kt jet streak is still
forecast to form downstream to the east of the low in response to
tightening thermal gradient downstream of the occlusion, in turn
enhancing the low-level jet (LLJ) across the eastern Bering Sea
and into Bristol Bay by Monday morning. Despite some variation
among models, strong coastal and offshore winds remain likely.
Winds may approach storm-force, with wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph
expected, particularly from the eastern Aleutians to over Bristol
Bay and the Alaska Peninsula, and potentially the Kuskokwim Delta
coast as well.

The low will also interact with significant moisture advection,
with high integrated vapor transport (IVT) values supporting
widespread precipitation along the occluded front. However, the
front’s relatively fast progression will limit precipitation
amounts across the eastern Aleutians to around or just over an
inch, particularly from Unalaska to Cold Bay, with higher amounts
over the southern AKPEN. The front begins to fall apart before
reaching the Southwest Alaska coast, weakening under the influence
of the ridge, with only the far western Kuskokwim Delta, Nunivak
Island, and the Bristol Bay coastal seeing any precipitation,
upwards of a half an inch. While coastal flooding remains a
concern, extensive shorefast ice and near-total ice coverage in
Kuskokwim Bay will likely mitigate impacts that could otherwise
contribute to flooding.

By Tuesday morning, both winds and precipitation will diminish as
the parent low (previously centered over the western Aleutians)
continues to progress towards Kamchatka, leaving the blocking
ridge in place, though slightly displaced east; quieter weather
then returns to the Aleutians Chain, Bering Sea and Southwest
Alaska.

Eovino

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday Through
Saturday)...

A change in the weather pattern is expected for Southcentral
throughout the long term period while active weather will continue
out west for the Alaska Peninsula, Aleutians, and Bering Sea.
Despite the shift in weather pattern, deterministic model and
ensemble guidance are well clustered through Friday, with a shift
to an ensemble mean blend for the end of the period as model
spread increases. The main feature for the beginning of the period
will be the bisection of the upper ridge responsible for recent
calm conditions across Southcentral Alaska by an east- west
oriented trough originating in Western Canada. The westward
expansion of this trough will allow for the intrusion of a colder
airmass and a large upper level low centered over Interior Alaska
to encompass much of the mainland through Friday. Meanwhile, a
strong vertically stacked low in the Western Bering weakens as it
moves into Siberia, allowing for showery weather to persist for
the Western Aleutians through Wednesday. A weak North Pacific low
has potential to bring locally heavy rain to the AKPen and Kodiak
Island through Wednesday and light showers to the Gulf coast
through Friday.

Persistent shortwave energy will continue to propagate out of the
North Pacific into the Western Gulf and across the Aleutians and
Alaska Peninsula through the period. By Friday, the next strong
North Pacific front will reach the Eastern Aleutians, AKPen, and
Kodiak Island bringing another round of potentially heavy rainfall
through the end of the period before making its way into Bristol
Bay and towards the Gulf coast by the weekend. Expect strong
southeasterly flow to begin to erode the colder airmass across
Southcentral Alaska and bring gusty conditions for the AKPen,
Kodiak Island, and through the Kamishak Gap. An additional low in
the far western Bering enters the picture on Friday, but quickly
stalls and weakens with its front dissipating as it reaches the
Western Aleutians by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions expected to continue through much of the
period; however, with high pressure remaining overhead, fog and
low clouds may redevelop over Cook Inlet by early Sunday morning.
Otherwise, calm winds and largely clear skies to continue tonight
into Monday.

&&