Storm Warning 44, NWS Anchorage, AK

376 
FZAK62 PAFC 101233
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
333 AM AKST Mon Feb 10 2025

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-110215-
333 AM AKST Mon Feb 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 939 mb low at 51N 179E this morning moves to 55N 169E at 947 mb
by Tue morning. Its front reaches the Mainland Tue morning and 
dissipates.

$$

PKZ411-110215-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
333 AM AKST Mon Feb 10 2025

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 21 to 27 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 20 to 27 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ412-110215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
333 AM AKST Mon Feb 10 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 17 to 24 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt diminishing to 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.WED...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ413-110215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
333 AM AKST Mon Feb 10 2025

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 17 to 25 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.WED...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ414-110215-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
333 AM AKST Mon Feb 10 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.WED...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.

$$

111 
FZAK62 PAFC 102354
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
254 PM AKST Mon Feb 10 2025

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-111445-
254 PM AKST Mon Feb 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 940 mb low at 53N 173E moves to 55N 171E at 949 mb by Tue 
afternoon, then continues northwest toward Kamchatka. Its front 
moves slowly east along the central and eastern Aleutians, into 
the Alaska Peninsula by Wed afternoon. 

$$

PKZ411-111445-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
254 PM AKST Mon Feb 10 2025

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 to 50 kt early becoming SE. Seas 20 to 27 ft. 
Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.THU...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ412-111445-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
254 PM AKST Mon Feb 10 2025

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt diminishing to 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 to 30 kt becoming 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.WED...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ413-111445-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
254 PM AKST Mon Feb 10 2025

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.WED...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.THU...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ414-111445-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
254 PM AKST Mon Feb 10 2025

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.WED...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.

$$

648 
FZAK62 PAFC 111225
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
325 AM AKST Tue Feb 11 2025

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-120145-
325 AM AKST Tue Feb 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 947 mb low at 55N 170E this morning continues to exit northwest
toward Kamchatka. Its front lingers along the Southwest Alaska
coastline through Wed afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-120145-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
325 AM AKST Tue Feb 11 2025

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ412-120145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
325 AM AKST Tue Feb 11 2025

.TODAY...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.THU...S wind up to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.FRI...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ413-120145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
325 AM AKST Tue Feb 11 2025

.TODAY...SE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 to 25 kt diminishing to up to 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.THU...NE wind up to 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ414-120145-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
325 AM AKST Tue Feb 11 2025

.TODAY...SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.WED...SE wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind up to 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...N wind up to 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
447 AM AKST Sun Feb 9 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The weather forecast remains on track with a ridge across
mainland Southcentral keeping those areas dry and quiet through
the early half of this week. Meanwhile, rain will continue
primarily for Kodiak Island as multiple troughs lift north.
Chances for precipitation spread into portions of the south and
eastern Kenai Peninsula through at least Tuesday. Confidence is
high for the overall outlook, with slightly less confidence on the
northward and eastward spread of precipitation away from the
western Gulf.

Light rain showers and east to southeasterly winds linger for
Kodiak through the rest of this morning. Higher elevations across
the Island will continue to have snow as snow levels are not
expected to vary too much from around 1500 to 2500 feet over the
next couple days. A North Pacific low is lifting north toward the
Alaska Peninsula and Kodiak Island. Precipitation intensity will
increase as the trough arrives this afternoon and will last until
at least Monday morning. Winds across Kodiak Island are expected
to increase to gale force with the passage of this low this
afternoon. Easterly winds around the Barren Islands are expected
to peak around 50 to 60 mph Monday morning and again early Tuesday
morning when yet another trough lifts north Monday night into
Tuesday. Additional precipitation with the following trough could
be heavy at times. Rainfall totals over the next 24 hours are
expected to be around an inch for Kodiak. The next trough late
Monday through Tuesday could bring an additional two more inches.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Saturday Night through Tuesday Morning)...

Gusty winds continue across the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay
coasts as well as the AKPEN in response to a tightened pressure
gradient with a high pressure ridge remaining over mainland
Alaska. Any remaining showers over the Kuskokwim Delta are
expected to push northward through this morning, with another
round of showers expected Monday morning as an upper-level
shortwave moves through ahead of the next system.

Farther out west, a North Pacific low-pressure system is
currently rapidly intensifying south of the Aleutians, driven by a
large upper-level low off the coast of the Kamchatka Peninsula.
This upper-level low provides the broader steering flow for the
surface low, which is expected to gradually rotate northward,
drawing the occluded front into the Aleutians through this
morning. The northward movement of the low is enhanced by
divergence in the left exit region of a very strong 200 kt zonal
jet streak, which will also contribute to rapid deepening, with
central pressures expected to bottom out as low as 940 mb as it
crosses the western Aleutians later today. Gale-force winds will
spread across the entire Bering and Aleutian chain, extending to
the Southwest Coastline through Monday.

As the system intensifies, a secondary 120 kt jet streak is still
forecast to form downstream to the east of the low in response to
tightening thermal gradient downstream of the occlusion, in turn
enhancing the low-level jet (LLJ) across the eastern Bering Sea
and into Bristol Bay by Monday morning. Despite some variation
among models, strong coastal and offshore winds remain likely.
Winds may approach storm-force, with wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph
expected, particularly from the eastern Aleutians to over Bristol
Bay and the Alaska Peninsula, and potentially the Kuskokwim Delta
coast as well.

The low will also interact with significant moisture advection,
with high integrated vapor transport (IVT) values supporting
widespread precipitation along the occluded front. However, the
front’s relatively fast progression will limit precipitation
amounts across the eastern Aleutians to around or just over an
inch, particularly from Unalaska to Cold Bay, with higher amounts
over the southern AKPEN. The front begins to fall apart before
reaching the Southwest Alaska coast, weakening under the influence
of the ridge, with only the far western Kuskokwim Delta, Nunivak
Island, and the Bristol Bay coastal seeing any precipitation,
upwards of a half an inch. While coastal flooding remains a
concern, extensive shorefast ice and near-total ice coverage in
Kuskokwim Bay will likely mitigate impacts that could otherwise
contribute to flooding.

By Tuesday morning, both winds and precipitation will diminish as
the parent low (previously centered over the western Aleutians)
continues to progress towards Kamchatka, leaving the blocking
ridge in place, though slightly displaced east; quieter weather
then returns to the Aleutians Chain, Bering Sea and Southwest
Alaska.

Eovino

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday Through
Saturday)...

A change in the weather pattern is expected for Southcentral
throughout the long term period while active weather will continue
out west for the Alaska Peninsula, Aleutians, and Bering Sea.
Despite the shift in weather pattern, deterministic model and
ensemble guidance are well clustered through Friday, with a shift
to an ensemble mean blend for the end of the period as model
spread increases. The main feature for the beginning of the period
will be the bisection of the upper ridge responsible for recent
calm conditions across Southcentral Alaska by an east- west
oriented trough originating in Western Canada. The westward
expansion of this trough will allow for the intrusion of a colder
airmass and a large upper level low centered over Interior Alaska
to encompass much of the mainland through Friday. Meanwhile, a
strong vertically stacked low in the Western Bering weakens as it
moves into Siberia, allowing for showery weather to persist for
the Western Aleutians through Wednesday. A weak North Pacific low
has potential to bring locally heavy rain to the AKPen and Kodiak
Island through Wednesday and light showers to the Gulf coast
through Friday.

Persistent shortwave energy will continue to propagate out of the
North Pacific into the Western Gulf and across the Aleutians and
Alaska Peninsula through the period. By Friday, the next strong
North Pacific front will reach the Eastern Aleutians, AKPen, and
Kodiak Island bringing another round of potentially heavy rainfall
through the end of the period before making its way into Bristol
Bay and towards the Gulf coast by the weekend. Expect strong
southeasterly flow to begin to erode the colder airmass across
Southcentral Alaska and bring gusty conditions for the AKPen,
Kodiak Island, and through the Kamishak Gap. An additional low in
the far western Bering enters the picture on Friday, but quickly
stalls and weakens with its front dissipating as it reaches the
Western Aleutians by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions expected to continue through much of the
period; however, with high pressure remaining overhead, fog and
low clouds may redevelop over Cook Inlet by early Sunday morning.
Otherwise, calm winds and largely clear skies to continue tonight
into Monday.

&&