Storm Warning 184, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
518 PM AKST Sat Dec 27 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
3/Tonight through Tuesday)...

Key Points:

* As winds develop tonight, fresh powdery snow on the ground will
  easily blow and drift. Expect localized areas of reduced
  visibility along Southcentral roads.

* High Wind Warnings are in effect for the Matanuska Valley and
  Valdez up to Thompson Pass beginning later today and continuing
  through Monday. Similar to other events this month, damage and
  power outages are likely.

* Temperatures will drop through the weekend. When combined with
  winds, this will lead to widespread wind chill readings well
  below zero. Northern Copper River Basin to be the coldest of the
  region, as such a Cold Weather Advisory has been issued through
  Monday afternoon.

A broad low pressure system stretching from the northern Pacific
south of Unalaska, into the northern Gulf of Alaska continues to
promote unsettled weather across Southern Alaska. This system has
been producing widespread light snow across the region. However,
the low in the northern Gulf will become increasingly cut off and
weak, shifting south, which will work to move any lingering
precipitation out of Southcentral for the time being. As a result,
snow is gradually diminishing from west to east. A strong frontal
system (separating the Arctic air over most of Alaska from much
warmer air that moved up from the Pacific) is leading to
widespread Gale force winds across the northern Gulf coastal
waters, with embedded areas of Storm force wind gusts.

As upper level clouds move out over Southcentral, this will allow
for the redevelopment of very cold temperatures in the Copper
River Basin beginning tonight. As such, a Cold Weather Advisory is
out for the northern extent of the Copper River Basin, where
overnight low temperatures will be coldest, from 20 below to 40
below zero. Beginning tonight, strong cold air advection and
synoptic downward motion will be focused over Southcentral,
leading to another round of strong and gusty winds for the Mat-
Su, portions of Anchorage, and down Cook Inlet to Kodiak Island.
As has been the case with every wind storm this month, the
Matanuska Valley (Palmer/Wasilla) will see some of the strongest
winds for a prolonged period of time beginning tonight through
Monday, with a likelihood of damaging winds and power outages (a
High Wind Warning is in effect). The alignment of the flow looks
less favorable for Anchorage than previous events, with the winds
likely staying close to Knik Arm (Chugiak, Birchwood, JBER, and
west Anchorage). The rest of the Anchorage area will see much
lighter winds.

A High Wind Warning is also in effect for Valdez through Thompson
Pass beginning 9pm this evening. The upper level flow is not
favorable for high winds since they will remain out ahead of the
digging trough. However, low level forcing looks strong, with a
surface low setting up shop over the northeast Gulf and very cold
dense air building up over the Copper River Basin. This air will
be forced down through the mountain passes, leading to very strong
and erratic wind gusts. With little snow on the ground in Valdez,
windstorms this month have been producing damage and there is the
chance of that once again.

A series of short-waves will track up the west side of this ridge
to the Gulf and toward Southcentral Sunday night through Monday
night. A return to low pressure in the northern Gulf, leading to
warm air advection and weakening of the upper flow is expected by
Monday. This should be enough to allow winds to diminish region-
wide beginning Monday. However, winds will not completely die
down, as multiple surface lows track into the Gulf and maintain
tight pressure gradients across the region. Precipitation will
spread north and west from the Gulf and across Southcentral Monday
through Monday night. This will fall as snow at the start, but
warmer air will push onshore and lead to a transition to a
rain/snow mix for portions of the Gulf coast and Prince William
Sound.

-SB/CL

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Tonight through Tuesday)...

Conditions across the Eastern Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula, and
Southwest Alaska continue to improve through this afternoon as
snowfall moves out of the area to the south and east while a
strong ridge builds back across the Bering. The last of radar
returns seen on the King Salmon radar continue to diminish with
snow expected to completely taper off this evening. A tight
pressure gradient between the ridge and the elongating low
pressure in the Gulf/North Pacific continues to keep winds
elevated across Southwest Alaska and Bering Sea. Blowing snow and
reduced visibilities remain possible as the strong north-
northwesterly winds loft the dry, transportable snow on the ground
through the evening.

Storm force winds across the Eastern Aleutians weaken overnight
into Sunday morning as the main upper trough passes overhead into
the North Pacific. Despite the weakening winds, the strong and
persistent pressure gradient will continue to bring small craft to
gale force winds across the eastern Bering and through favored
bays and passes along the Eastern Aleutians and AK Peninsula.
These winds continue through at least early next week as the
pattern looks to hold steady with ridging over the Bering and
troughing in the Gulf. Across interior Southwest Alaska,
specifically portions of the Kuskokwim Delta, Lower Kuskokwim
Valley, and along the Alaska Range, temperatures remain quite
cold, with wind chills/apparent temperatures dropping to 40 to 50
degrees below zero and persisting through the weekend into Monday.
A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect for the Kuskokwim Delta
and Kuskokwim Valley through Sunday morning. Cold Weather
Advisories have also been issued for Lime Village and the Central
Alaska Peninsula from this evening through Monday afternoon. Along
the Southwest coast, the cold air and gale force winds will
combine to produce a heavy to extreme freezing spray hazard that
also lasts through the weekend into early next week.

-JH/AM

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

An amplified upper-level pattern continues mid-next week with a
ridge over the Bering Sea and an elongated trough across
Southcentral Alaska anchored by a closed low in the Gulf of
Alaska. Synoptically-forced gap winds to gale force will also be
ongoing through the Alaska Peninsula and Kamishak Gap Wednesday
morning, to the west of the stacked, complex low in the Gulf.
These gap winds are enhanced, with potential to reach storm force,
on Wednesday as there is good agreement on a surge of cold air
dropping south across Southwest Alaska and crossing the Aleutian
Range into the western Gulf. Over Southcentral Alaska,
southeasterly flow wrapping warmer air and moisture northward around
the Gulf low, light snow showers look to be possible through much
of next week, though chances are overall quite low but will be
most favored in the Copper River Basin.

Out west, a series of fronts and shortwave troughs lift into the
Bering Sea and track along the Aleutians through the end of the
week. These systems bring warmer air with mostly rain to the
Aleutians, though the leading (north) edge of the front could
have precipitation begin as snow for locations on the Alaska
Peninsula and in the Pribilof Islands. Through the end of the
week, the ridge is eroded by the progression of these features,
and the pattern becomes dominated by broad troughing over mainland
Alaska and the Gulf. Given this pattern, it seems likely that even
more cold air will be drawn southward, especially into Southwest
Alaska. This could bring the lowest temperatures seen thus far
this season for next weekend, with ambient temperatures 30 to 40
below zero in the Kuskokwim Valley. Elsewhere across southern
mainland Alaska, temperatures also remain below average.

Quesada

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions expected through the period with the
exception of maybe a few brief dips in visibility from blowing
snow from recent snowfall. North winds will remain strong and
gusty, with gusts of up to 40 kts possible beginning late this
evening through Sunday morning. A few gusts up to 50 kts cannot be
ruled out late tonight into Sunday morning. Winds will steadily
decrease Monday evening into Tuesday morning.

&&