Gale Warning 893, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
553 AM AKST Sat Dec 27 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
3/Today through Monday night)...

Key Points:

* Snow will taper off across Southcentral today as a reinforcing
  shot of cold and dry air moves in. Widespread gusty winds will
  develop this afternoon through tonight and persist into Monday.

* As winds develop later today, the fresh powdery snow on the
  ground will easily blow and drift. Expect localized areas of
  reduced visibility along Southcentral roads.

* High Wind Warnings are in effect for the Matanuska Valley and
  Valdez up to Thompson Pass beginning later today and continuing
  through Monday. Similar to other events this month, damage and
  power outages are likely.

* Temperatures will drop through the weekend. When combined with
  winds, this will lead to widespread wind chill readings well
  below zero.

In the upper levels, a high amplitude ridge extends from the
Northeast Pacific to Southeast Alaska. An Arctic trough digging
southward across the Bering Sea has developed into a closed low
center and is dropping into the North Pacific. A second out of
phase short-wave is crossing the eastern Alaska Interior. Out
ahead of these high amplitude short-waves, vorticity maxima
embedded in southwesterly flow are tracking up and over the
ridge, across the Gulf of Alaska and toward Southcentral. This
has been producing widespread light snow across the region.
However, as the upstream troughs approach, these are being pushed
southward out of Southcentral. As a result, snow is gradually
diminishing from west to east. Meanwhile, a weak surface low
which passed south of Kodiak Island overnight is now headed
northeastward across the Gulf. This continues to bring rain to
Kodiak Island. A strong frontal system (separating the Arctic air
over most of Alaska from much warmer air that moved up from the
Pacific) is leading to widespread Gale force winds across the
Gulf coastal waters, with embedded areas of Storm force winds.

The north end of the Bering trough will phase with the trough over
Interior Alaska and dig southeastward across Southcentral this
afternoon through Sunday morning before stalling overhead. Model
guidance has stabilized with how far south and east the trough
progresses, with most solutions centered from the eastern kenai
Peninsula to the western Copper River Basin on Sunday. As a
result, the strongest cold air advection and synoptic downward
motion will be focused to the west of this axis, leading to
another round of strong and gusty winds for the Mat-Su, portions
of Anchorage, and down Cook Inlet to Kodiak Island. As has been
the case with every wind storm this month, the Matanuska Valley
(Palmer/Wasilla) will see some of the strongest winds for a
prolonged period of time later today through Monday, with a
likelihood of damaging winds and power outages (a High Wind
Warning begins at 3pm this afternoon). The alignment of the
flow looks less favorable for Anchorage than previous events,
with the winds likely staying close to Knik Arm (Chugiak,
Birchwood, JBER, and west Anchorage). The rest of the Anchorage
area will see much lighter winds.

A High Wind Warning is also in effect for Valdez through Thompson
Pass beginning 9pm this evening. The upper level flow is not
favorable for high winds since they will remain out ahead of the
digging trough. However, low level forcing looks strong, with a
surface low setting up shop over the northeast Gulf and deep
Arctic air piling up in the Copper River Basin (-25 to -30 degrees
Celsius at 850mb). This air will be forced down through the
mountain passes, leading to very strong and erratic wind gusts.
With little snow on the ground in Valdez, windstorms this month
have been producing damage and there is the chance of that once
again.

There had been potential for heavy snow in the Southeastern
Copper River Basin, including McCarthy. However, it now looks
like the heaviest snow will be south and east of McCarthy and
down to the northeastern Gulf coast. It still does look like a
long duration light snow event for McCarthy and areas along the
Edgerton Highway and McCarthy Road. There is some uncertainty in
the western edge of snow in the Copper River Basin, largely
dependent on the exact location where the upper trough stalls.

By Sunday, the upper level ridge will be centered along the CONUS
west coast up into western Canada. A series of short-waves will
track up the west side of this ridge to the Gulf and toward
Southcentral Sunday night through Monday night. This will push the
trough axis over Southcentral off to the north and west, leading
to warm air advection and weakening of the upper flow. This should
be enough to allow winds to diminish region-wide beginning Monday.
However, winds will not completely die down, as multiple surface
lows track into the Gulf and maintain tight pressure gradients
across the region. Precipitation will spread north and west from
the Gulf and across Southcentral Monday through Monday night. This
will fall as snow at the start, but warmer air will push onshore
and lead to a transition to rain for portions of the Gulf coast
and Prince William Sound.

-SEB

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Monday)...

...Active Warnings and Advisories...

* Blizzard Warning for the Kuskokwim Delta and Western Capes.

* Blizzard Warnings in effect for the Eastern Aleutians and
  Northern Bristol Bay coast through Saturday afternoon.

* Winter Weather Advisory for Greater Bristol Bay and Northern
  Alaska Peninsula in effect through Saturday afternoon.

* Winter Weather Advisories for Central and Southern Alaska
  Peninsula through Saturday evening.

* Cold Weather Advisory in effect for the Kuskokwim Delta and
  Kuskokwim Valley until Sunday morning. Cold Weather Advisories
  are also in effect for Lime Village and the Central Alaska
  Peninsula from Saturday evening through Monday afternoon.

Discussion:

The forecast largely continues to remain on track for the near
and short term. Diving into the details, a 980 mb low situated
south of the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula is in the
process of being absorbed into a much larger trough complex that
extends well eastward and south of Kodiak Island. Pressure and
thermal gradient driven winds are still howling across the Bering
due to strong Arctic high pressure to the north. A swath of
isentropic lift driven precipitation sits between the Pribilof
Islands and the Eastern Aleutians, with convective/ocean effect
snow showers forming in the wake of the system near the Pribilofs
as lapse rates steepen from a dynamically cooling column. The 500
mb arctic trough continues to dig south of the Aleutians this
morning and has pinched off a closed upper low with ridging
building in its wake over the Bering. Even as snowfall comes to
an end for places under Blizzard Warnings such as the Kuskokwim
Delta, Western Capes, and Dillingham, the concern is going to
shift to ground blizzard conditions from strong winds lofting dry,
powdery snow that has already fallen. As surface ridging works in
behind the front, precipitation will continue to move eastward
and southeastward through the morning and afternoon hours. The
latest guidance has snow diminishing and moving south of the
Alaska Peninsula by this afternoon, but again, blowing snow still
has the potential to significantly reduce visibility.

Heading into Sunday morning, the main upper trough passes over
the Alaska Peninsula, increasing gap winds for favored bays and
passes. Across interior Southwest Alaska, specifically portions of
the Kuskokwim Delta, Lower Kuskokwim Valley, and along the Alaska
Range, temperatures will be quite cold, with wind chills/apparent
temperatures dropping to 40 to 50 degrees below zero beginning
tonight and persisting through the weekend. Along the Southwest
coast, the cold air and gale to storm force winds will combine to
produce a heavy to extreme freezing spray hazard that also lasts
through the weekend.

-AM/JH

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...

A highly-amplified upper-level pattern is present early next week
with a ridge over the Bering Sea and an elongated trough across
southern mainland Alaska anchored by a closed low in the Gulf of
Alaska. Yet another round of Southcentral Alaska gap winds will be
gradually diminishing as the Gulf low brings southeasterly flow
and warming temperatures into Southcentral, weakening the
pressure and density gradients along the mountains. Synoptically-
forced gap winds to gale force will also be ongoing through the
Alaska Peninsula on Tuesday, to the west of the stacked, complex
low south of Kodiak Island. With the southeasterly flow wrapping
warmer air and moisture north into Southcentral Alaska, light
snow showers look to be possible through much of next week, though
chances for precipitation are overall fairly low.

Out west, a North Pacific low pushes its front into the
western Aleutians on Tuesday. As the front lifts into the Bering
Sea on Wednesday, a moderately strong upper-level low dives into
Southwest Alaska over top the Bering ridge, bringing another brief
blast of cold air to the region. Cold advection across the Western
Alaska Range/Aleutian Range will lead to another potential round
of storm force gap winds across the Alaska Peninsula and into the
western Gulf of Alaska. Most models then seem to bring a return of
relatively warmer conditions, but the GFS continues the plunge of
Arctic Air which would likely bring the coldest temperatures of
the season so far. However, this is, at the moment, considered a
less likely solution. Along the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula,
the Bering front lingers through Thursday and Friday, bringing
warmer air with mostly rain, though the leading (north) edge of
the front could start as snow for locations on the Alaska
Peninsula and in the Pribilof Islands.

Throughout the week, temperatures remain below average across
southern mainland Alaska. The coldest temperatures are likely to
be seen in interior Southwest Alaska, where ambient temperatures
reach 20 to 30 below zero on Wednesday. The Copper River Basin, a
favored cold spot, is expected to be warmer than many of the
recent cold spells through much of the week.

Quesada

&&
.AVIATION...

PANC...Conditions will steadily improve at the terminal this
morning as snow clears out and as ceilings rise to VFR thresholds.
Meanwhile, north winds will steadily increase through the day and
become strong and gusty by this afternoon, with gusts of up to 40
kts possible beginning late this evening through Sunday morning.
A few gusts up to 50 kts cannot be ruled out late tonight into
Sunday morning. The few inches of very powdery new snowfall will
easily blow and drift in the wind. Thus, some low level visibility
reductions below VFR will be possible at times through the TAF
period during periods of blowing snow.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1031 AM AKST Sat Dec 27 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1029 AM     Snow             1 S Sterling            60.54N 150.76W
12/27/2025  M6.0 Inch        Kenai Peninsula    AK   Trained Spotter

            6 inch snowfall total for past 24-hours, 1.5
            inches of snow overnight.

&&

CL

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
220 PM AKST Sat Dec 27 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 PM     Snow             1 NNE Anchorage (Potter 61.06N 149.76W
12/27/2025  M1.1 Inch        Anchorage          AK   NWS Employee

            Storm total snowfall.

&&

PP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
304 PM AKST Sat Dec 27 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0304 PM     Snow             Anchorage (Potter Valle 61.06N 149.76W
12/27/2025  M1.1 Inch        Anchorage          AK   Trained Spotter

            1.1 inches of snow last 24 hours. Liquid
            equivalent of 0.1 inches.

&&

KM