Storm Warning 126, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
749 AM AKDT Tue Oct 28 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Discussion:

Another shortwave trough is lifting up across the northern Gulf this
morning with scattered showers moving through Prince William Sound
and inland to the coastal areas. Radar shows echoes working their
way over the Chugach and Kenai Mountains and may see some scattered
light snow showers or flurries this morning for areas along the
western Kenai Peninsula northwards into the Mat-Su Valley. Areas of
dense fog and low stratus moved in along the Knik Arm and Glenn
Highway down into the Anchorage Bowl overnight, but increasing
midlevel cloud cover has allowed for some improvement in visibility
and fog for some of these areas. Given the low stratus still in
place will set-up some feeder-seeder snow processes from Anchorage
up through Palmer. Little if any accumulation is expected with any
snow shower moving through as weak downsloping by mid to late
morning should help to keep most of the showers from reaching the
ground.

The main focus is on the midweek system that will quickly deepen as
the low crossing the eastern Aleutians this morning will merge with
a strong low lifting out of the North Pacific. The new merged low
will deepen even more just south of Kodiak Island by Wednesday
afternoon then lifting over the AKPEN towards Bristol Bay by
Thursday. As the lows phase and merge, the North Pacific low will
push a strong front north across the Gulf. Models have the surface
low bottoming out between 948 mb to 955 mb with a strong pressure
gradient over much of the western Gulf. A swath of strong easterly
winds will accompany the front as it sweeps north, bringing gusts up
to 65 mph to Kodiak Island, and the potential for storm force winds
through Shelikof Strait and Kamishak Bay, and hurricane force winds
through the Barren Islands. A swath of storm force winds will work
northwards towards the coast by Wednesday afternoon and early
evening. Will the strongest winds will be relatively short-lived as
the front steadily pushes north, gusty winds will continue into
Thursday. In addition to the strong winds, Kodiak Island will see a
period of moderate to heavy rainfall on Wednesday with 1-2 inches of
rainfall possible as the front moves through.

- PP

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Thursday)...

A dissipating front is passing through the Kuskokwim Delta this
morning. Current radar shows some weak returns over the bay but
much of this precipitation is likely not reaching the ground, or
is very light, and mainly falling along the coastal locations from
Kongiganak to Kipnuk if at all. The Kuskokwim region is expected
to clear out or at to stay dry for the rest of today and into the
start of tomorrow with persistent offshore flow and continued cool
temperatures. To the south, a few light snow showers have been
observed with Dillingham having received trace amounts over the
past few hours. Areas of off and on light snow may continue across
the Greater Bristol Bay region, though warmer temperatures
advecting in from the south will see any additional snow likely change
over to rain.

Taking a look at the bigger picture, a trough has persisted over
the southern Bering the past week with numerous lows spinning into
the region, the latest of which is currently sitting over the
Eastern Aleutians/Southern AKPEN this morning. Gusty winds will
accompany today's low through the AKPEN. Widespread gales over the
southern and eastern Bering are forecast for Tuesday with strong
easterly winds pushing through the Kamishak Gap.

As has already been mentioned in previous discussions, the main
focus in the near term will be with the next low to lift from the
Alaska Peninsula into the western Gulf on Wednesday. The thoughts
on this next low remain unchanged and the previous discussion's
breakdown remains valid:

There is good model consensus that by Wednesday afternoon, a
sub-960 mb low will be located near Kodiak Island/Bristol Bay.
This is likely to bring a period of snowfall to Bristol Bay Monday
morning as its front lifts into Southwest Alaska, with the deep
low driving northeasterly wind gusts to 55 mph out of Kamishak
Gap. Gusts over the waters of Bristol Bay could easily top 60
knots by late Wednesday morning. With temperatures hovering in the
low 30s, blowing snow would not typically be favored. However,
the gusty winds may lead to the potential for significant
visibility reductions, especially if snowfall is heavier. As the
front lifts across Southwest Alaska, light snow is also possible
for the Kuskokwim Delta, which will also see some gusty
northeasterly winds. There, temperatures will be colder and snow
fluffier, so blowing snow is also a potential risk Wednesday night
into Thursday. Confidence in blowing snow potential remains low
to moderate.

By Thursday, low pressure will lift northward and into interior
Alaska, which should see precipitation across Southwest Alaska
expand in coverage. Winds, however, will taper off as low
pressure quickly weakens.

-CQ/BL

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

An unsettled weather pattern is expected through the long term as
upper level troughing from the Bering Sea is expected to move into
the Gulf of Alaska. A North Pacific system will be merging with
an upper level low in the Bering by Thursday morning resulting in
broad upper level troughing across the Gulf of Alaska. Multiple
vorticity maxima rotating around the base of the trough will
support a large and complex surface low pressure system centered
over the Gulf of Alaska. As this system continues to build in the
Gulf mid-late this work week, a colder airmass flowing in south
through the Bering Strait into the Bering and much of the
mainland, transitioning any remaining showers over the Bering to
snow. Models still diverge on how strong the system remains within
the Gulf, and how north the system will push, potentially leading
to strong easterly winds along the northern Gulf coast. Given the
uncertainty, there remains low confidence in the potential for
rainfall for low elevations along the coast and light snow across
inland Southcentral for late next week. Given the potential depth
of the low and cold air filtering into the Bering, strong and
gusty winds through the Alaska Peninsula and Eastern Aleutian gaps
are possible late this week.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...MVFR conditions are expected to lift to VFR later this
morning. Light northerly winds will increase to around 10 kts
this afternoon through tomorrow morning. Rain and snow showers are
expected tomorrow afternoon and evening as a front moves through
the region changing the dominant wind direction from northerly to
easterly.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
158 PM AKDT Tue Oct 28 2025

AKZ771-772-282300-
Kodiak Island Northeast-Kodiak Island Southwest-
Including the cities of Kodiak City, Port Lions, Ouzinkie,
Old Harbor, Akhiok, Karluk, and Larsen Bay
158 PM AKDT Tue Oct 28 2025

...STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR KODIAK ISLAND
WEDNESDAY...

Strong winds with gusts up to 75 mph are expected across Kodiak
Island Wednesday morning through early afternoon as a low deepens
to the south of the island and its front lifts north across the
Gulf. Strong early winds will accompany the front, lifting from
south to north across the island. A High Wind Warning has been
issued for Kodiak Island from 4 AM Wednesday through 1 PM
Wednesday. Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall will also
accompany the front with rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches possible
through Thursday.

Now is the time to prepare for strong winds by securing outdoor
items, or bringing lightweight items indoors.