Storm Warning 123, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
457 PM AKDT Mon Oct 27 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Discussion:

Showers continue to linger this afternoon across eastern Prince
William Sound as the weak shortwave from this morning fully pushes
inland. As this system continues to progress north, expect light
snow to continue to spread into the Copper River Basin up towards
Paxson through this evening and overnight tonight. Another weak
shortwave following close behind in the Gulf will reach the coast
by early Tuesday morning. As upper level flow shifts more
southeasterly overnight, the bulk of precipitation associated with
this system should mainly fall along the coast of the eastern
Kenai Peninsula and western Prince William Sound as rain at sea
level and snow for higher elevations through tomorrow morning. Any
showers that are able to overcome the cross-barrier flow and
reach further inland will bring light snow mid to late tomorrow
morning.

Looking ahead through midweek, the large low out in the Bering
will drop south across the eastern Aleutians by Wednesday morning
before tracking towards the southern end of Kodiak Island through
Wednesday night. As the low strengthens and begins to move north
towards Kodiak Island, its front lifts across the Gulf bringing
heavy rain and easterly storm force winds to Kodiak Island with
hurricane force gusts across the Barren Islands Wednesday morning
into Wednesday afternoon. The front maintains its strength as it
lifts to the northern Gulf coast through Wednesday afternoon,
bringing moderate to heavy precipitation for the eastern Kenai
Coast, northern Gulf Coast, and Prince William Sound. Strong
southeasterly cross- barrier flow is expected to keep the western
Kenai and points north relatively dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Thursday)...

The broad low pressure system extending a cold, unstable airmass
across the Bering Sea over the past several days is beginning to
consolidate a new focus over the southwestern Bering near the
eastern Aleutians and southern Alaska Peninsula. Aided by a strong
shortwave trough aloft, two compact gale force lows have developed
in the region today. The leading low tracked across the southern
Alaska Peninsula, bringing rain showers and gusty winds. Further
to the north and west across the Bering Sea, a series of weaker
fronts and mesolows rotating through the gyre will continue to
bring periods of enhanced rain/snow showers and gusty winds along
the Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula, and the Southwest Alaska coast.
Forecast confidence with any given feature continues to be quite
low, but generally expecting precipitation accumulations to be
light, with snow amounts up to just a couple of inches through
Wednesday.

Tonight, the leading gale force low in the eastern Bering Sea
rotates back toward the Pribilof Islands, bringing with it warmer
air and a brief period of showers that are likely a mix of rain
and snow through Tuesday morning. The second low tracks from south
of the eastern Aleutians to the southern Alaska Peninsula tonight
and into the southeastern Bering Sea for Tuesday as it becomes the
dominant low of the whole complex. The southern Alaska Peninsula
can expect to see continued periods of gusty south to easterly
winds and a mix of rain and snow. Temperatures generally in the
mid to upper 30s seem to suggest primarily rain for the
precipitation type, but heavier bands/showers could produce some
minor snow accumulations of an inch or two, especially tonight.

Tuesday night onward, several successive North Pacific lows will
merge with the Eastern Aleutians/Alaska Peninsula surface low as
it begins to shift east. Models continue to struggle with how
these lows will interact, which is leading to uncertainty with the
exact details of the forecast. However, there is good model
consensus that by Wednesday afternoon, a sub-960 mb low will
be located near Kodiak Island/Bristol Bay. This is likely to bring
a period of snowfall to Bristol Bay Monday morning as its front
lifts into Southwest Alaska, with the deep low driving
northeasterly wind gusts to 55 mph out of Kamishak Gap. With
temperatures hovering in the low 30s, blowing snow would not
typically be favored. However, the gusty winds may lead to the
potential for significant visibility reductions, especially if
snowfall is heavier. As the front lifts across Southwest Alaska,
light snow is also possible for the Kuskokwim Delta, which will
also see some gusty northeasterly winds. There, temperatures will
be colder and snow fluffier, so blowing snow is also a potential
risk Wednesday night into Thursday. However, there are still a few
details to work out, so confidence remains low to moderate for the
blowing snow. Stay tuned to the forecast for further updates.

Quesada

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

An unsettled weather pattern is expected through the long term as
upper level troughing from the Bering Sea is expected to move into
the Gulf of Alaska. A North Pacific system will be merging with
an upper level low in the Bering by Thursday morning resulting in
broad upper level troughing across the Gulf of Alaska. Multiple
vorticity maxima rotating around the base of the trough will
support a large and complex surface low pressure system centered
over the Gulf of Alaska. As this system continues to build in the
Gulf mid-late this work week, a colder airmass flowing in south
through the Bering Strait into the Bering and much of the
mainland, transitioning any remaining showers over the Bering to
snow. Models still diverge on how strong the system remains within
the Gulf, and how north the system will push, potentially leading
to strong easterly winds along the northern Gulf coast. Given the
uncertainty, there remains low confidence in the potential for
rainfall for low elevations along the coast and light snow across
inland Southcentral for late next week. Given the potential depth
of the low and cold air filtering into the Bering, strong and
gusty winds through the Alaska Peninsula and Eastern Aleutian gaps
are possible late this week.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...MVFR conditions are expected to lift to VFR tonight. Light
northerly winds will increase to around 10 kts Tuesday afternoon.

&&