Small Craft Advisory 976, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
425 PM AKST Sat Nov 15 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Tuesday morning)...

It has been a beautiful day across much of Southcentral Alaska
today, with the exception of some low stratus and fog lingering in
the Copper River Valley. Gusty gap winds along the coast will
ease slightly through this evening as a Gulf low pulls south, but
revamp again for early tomorrow morning when a weak surface low
briefly forms just south of Prince William Sound. An potent upper
level trough driving in from the northwest will allow for
snowfall along and east of the Richardson, Edgerton, and Tok Cut-
Off highways tonight and tomorrow morning. The highest amounts
look to fall along the Edgerton with up to 6 inches between
Chitina and McCarthy.

Our attention then turns to a strong low pressure system moving
into the Bering Sea tomorrow, sending a trough over Southcentral
Alaska through Monday night. Light snowfall is possible as the
initial front moves over the Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage bowl, and
the Mat- Su Valley Sunday evening and night. Downsloping in
locations directly in the lee of mountains will likely limit
precipitation Monday morning before a more significant wave of
precipitation moves through during the day on Monday. Most of the
Cook Inlet region could see 1 to 3 inches of snow while favorable
flow and lingering moisture into Tuesday will allow higher snow
totals in the Susitna Valley. This system kicks off a very active
pattern for southern Alaska through much of the next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 & 2)...

An occluded low remains anchored over the western Bering this
afternoon with a strong front extending southward through the
Central/Eastern Aleutians into the North Pacific. Gusty southerly
winds will linger into tonight from the Pribilof Islands down to
Atka as the front makes slow eastward progress.

Even further east, a blanket of low stratus and fog has been
persisting across Southwest Alaska through much of the day today.
On the east side of the Kuskokwim Mountains from Sleetmute down to
King Salmon ceilings have been down to around 2000 ft. Coastal
locations near Dillingham have experienced areas of fog during the
morning hours. On the west side of the Kuskokwim Mountains
ceilings have been lower, ranging from 400 to 800 ft. Bethel's
visibility, in particular, has only recently gone up from a 1/2
mile to 2 miles. Through the rest of the evening hours into
tonight a front will clip the YK Delta with southeasterly winds
helping to break up any remaining fog. The approach of a strong
low into the eastern Bering on Sunday will see winds increase
further over the latter half of the day, which has been the focus
of the Southwest Alaska forecast for the past several days.

A winter weather advisory for snow and blowing snow is in effect
early Sunday morning through early Monday morning. As the
aforementioned low skirts west of Nunivak Island, scattered snow
showers are expected to develop along with increasing winds
gusting from 35 to 45 mph. This will promote periods of reduced
visibility of one half mile due to blowing snow. As the low
continues northward through Saturday night, southerly flow will
see temperatures warm to or above freezing by Sunday morning. The
threat for blowing snow will come to an end at that time. Total
snow amounts will range from 2 to 4 inches from Mekoryuk to
Toksook Bay to Kipnuk. Further inland, conditions will be windy
but to a lesser extent, also with less snowfall. Thus, interior
locations, including Bethel, have been excluded from any winter
weather products.

An extended period of south to southwesterly onshore winds
ranging from 20 to 30 mph will linger in the aftermath of the
departing low for much of the Kuskokwim Delta on Monday. Despite
the lower tide levels, there is still potential for water levels
of 1.5 to 3 feet above the normal highest tide line during the
high tide cycle on Monday morning and again Monday evening. This
will be something to keep a close eye on over the next 24 hours,
and a coastal flood advisory will be issued if confidence
increases in higher water levels impacting the Kuskokwim Delta
Coast.

-BL

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

By early next week, a broad upper level trough establishes itself
over the Bering Sea with several shortwaves rotating around the
base of the trough, sustaining the active storm track in the
North Pacific and Gulf. The long term begins as a front tracks
across the eastern Bering into Southwest Alaska, bringing small
craft to gale strength winds along the Alaska Peninsula and
Bristol Bay coast. As the front reaches the Southwest coast and
moves inland Wednesday into Thursday, southerly flow likely allows
precipitation to fall as rain along the coast, with snow
transitioning to rain for interior locations in the Kuskokwim
Delta and Bristol Bay.

This will be quickly followed by a stronger low lifting out of
the North Pacific towards the AKPen by Thursday morning, at which
this point deterministic model guidance begins to diverge. The GFS
and Canadian models show a stronger, potentially storm force low
tracking across the AKPen towards the Kuskokwim Delta before
pivoting east into the Gulf, while the ECMWF tracks a weaker low
straight into the Gulf from the North Pacific. Although details in
the overall strength and exact storm track will become more clear
in the coming days, strong southerly flow and plentiful moisture
can be expected regardless of which solution ultimately plays out.
Moderate rainfall and snow at higher elevations is expected along
the AKPen and Kodiak Island for Thursday, with heavy rain at sea
level and heavy mountain snow directed at the northern Gulf coast
Thursday into Friday. As the low lingers in the Gulf, showery and
generally unsettled weather continues in the Gulf and along the
Gulf coast through the weekend, while the deep southerly flow
associated with this system will result in temperatures trending
warmer across southern Alaska.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light north to northeast winds will
persist. A passing upper trough could briefly increase cloud
cover this evening, but ceilings are expected to remain well
within VFR range and above 5000 ft.

&&