Small Craft Advisory 813, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
502 AM AKDT Thu Sep 25 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Discussion:

The low over the northwest Gulf has weakened substantially as of
this morning. Scattered to widespread showers continue to rotate
around this low towards the northern Gulf coast, but are having a
much more difficult time trying to make it up and over the coastal
mountains. The upper low will continue to fall apart before moving
inland later today, but the surface low will linger and then deepen
slightly in response to an low crossing the southern AKPEN by mid to
late morning. The trough will quickly move across Southcentral and
the Gulf with modest cold air advection sweeping in behind it. Winds
will once again pick up to Gale force through the bays and passes of
the eastern Aleutians, AKPEN, and Barren Islands. This trough will
set the stage for the next low to dive down across Southwest Alaska
towards Bristol Bay then Kodiak Island on Friday through Saturday
morning. Models are in reasonable agreement on the track of the
upper low but do differ slightly in timing and exact low track.

Models also differ slightly on the strength of the cold air
advection as it gets dragged southwards. Both the track and the
strength of the cold air advection will play a role in precipitation
types and how far down the mountains snow could fall. Overall
precipitation amounts look light for inland Southcentral,
regardless of precipitation type, and probabilities look more
favorable for the higher terrain.

- PP

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Gale force winds have diminished across much of the
central/eastern Bering Sea, though widespread small craft winds
will continue over the next several days. The next impactful
system will be dropping south out of eastern Russia to skirt along
the Southwest Coast. Models are coming into better agreement
regarding this next low/trough, placing the first core of gales
right over the Pribilof Islands and then dropping south over the
southern Alaska Peninsula and Eastern Aleutians tonight through
Friday. A swath of cold air follows behind the trough, bringing a
round of reinvigorated gale force winds across much of the
eastern Bering Sea on Friday that will persist through Friday
night. Storm force gusts are expected through the usual gaps and
passes south of the Alaska Peninsula. Overall, the bulk of the
associated precipitation will be confined to the southern AKPen
and the Southwest Coast, though precipitation may spill inland
towards Bethel as well as along the upslope (western) side of the
Kilbuck Mountains. Cold air aloft reaching between -4F and -7F
will allow for overnight surface temperatures across Southwest
Alaska to drop below freezing tonight and dip into the 20's Friday
night and Saturday night. Benign conditions are expected across
the rest of the Bering Sea and Central/Western Aleutian Islands.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

Perhaps a quieter weather pattern in store for Southwest and
Southcentral Alaska Sunday into next week as high pressure builds
over the region. In the wake of a departing low over the Gulf of
Alaska, precipitation chances should wind down along with
diminishing winds. Weak northerly flow over Southcentral Alaska
and clearer skies may also result in some colder overnight low
temperatures. Farther west, gusty northerly winds may linger for
a hair longer across the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula,
but those too should taper off by the start of the work week.
Cooler temperatures will continue for Southwest Alaska, though
that does not come as a surprise for this time of year.

The main forecast challenge continues to be with what happens to
the remnants of Typhoon Neoguri, currently spinning idly over the
West Pacific. Due to a lack of meaningful steering flow, models
are struggling with resolving the future track of Neoguri. The GFS
continues to bring Neoguri into the Aleutian Chain on Monday of
next week, picked up by a passing upper trough. The ECMWF is
slower and much farther south. Regardless of its eventual track,
even more uncertainty lingers whether Neoguri will see any
resurgence in intensity as an extratropical cyclone. It's too far
out to expect any semblance of an accurate forecast for this
system, but will be good to continue monitoring its progression
and future model guidance. Keep an eye on the forecast in the
event that it does bring elevated winds to the Aleutians and
possibly Southwest Alaska later in the period.

BL

&&
.AVIATION...

PANC...Areas of low stratus and fog are developing north of the
terminal where skies have partially cleared out overnight. This
will bring the threat for IFR conditions or lower over the next
few hours as areas of low stratus and fog potentially drift over
west Anchorage. A few light showers moving northwest across the
Kenai Peninsula could make it over the mountains into Anchorage
periodically through tonight. However, any rain that does reach
the surface will likely remain very light, with VFR conditions and
light winds expected to prevail as soon as any fog/stratus clears
out later this morning.

&&