Gale Warning 554, NWS Anchorage, AK

997 
FZAK51 PAFC 261203
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
403 AM AKDT Fri Sep 26 2025

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-270030-
403 AM AKDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 989 mb low 50 nm southeast of Seward remains nearly stationary 
as it intensifies to 985 mb by Sat morning. The low then moves 220
nm south of Middleton Island at 981 mb Sat evening and continues 
south into the North Pacific by Sun morning.

$$

PKZ710-270030-
Cape Suckling to Gravel Point out to 15 NM-
403 AM AKDT Fri Sep 26 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ711-270030-
Gravel Point to Cape Cleare out to 15 NM-
403 AM AKDT Fri Sep 26 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ712-270030-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare from 15 to 75 NM-
403 AM AKDT Fri Sep 26 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ715-270030-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point out to 15 NM-
403 AM AKDT Fri Sep 26 2025

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ716-270030-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point from 15 to 75 NM-
403 AM AKDT Fri Sep 26 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt becoming NE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ714-270030-
Resurrection Bay-
403 AM AKDT Fri Sep 26 2025

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ724-270030-
Northwest Prince William Sound-
403 AM AKDT Fri Sep 26 2025

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ725-270030-
Central and Eastern Prince William Sound-
403 AM AKDT Fri Sep 26 2025

.TODAY...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ726-270030-
Southwest Prince William Sound-
403 AM AKDT Fri Sep 26 2025

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ720-270030-
Port of Valdez-
403 AM AKDT Fri Sep 26 2025

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ721-270030-
Valdez Narrows-
403 AM AKDT Fri Sep 26 2025

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ722-270030-
Valdez Arm-
403 AM AKDT Fri Sep 26 2025

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt
after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ723-270030-
Passage Canal-
403 AM AKDT Fri Sep 26 2025

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ730-270030-
West of Barren Islands Including Kamishak Bay-
403 AM AKDT Fri Sep 26 2025

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ731-270030-
Barren Islands East-
403 AM AKDT Fri Sep 26 2025

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ733-270030-
Gore Point to Marmot Island from 15 to 80 NM-
403 AM AKDT Fri Sep 26 2025

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ732-270030-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak out to 15 NM-
403 AM AKDT Fri Sep 26 2025

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ734-270030-
Marmot Island To Sitkinak from 15 to 85 NM-
403 AM AKDT Fri Sep 26 2025

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 40 kt except W 30 kt N of Dangerous Cape.
Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ736-270030-
Chiniak Bay-
403 AM AKDT Fri Sep 26 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ737-270030-
Marmot Bay-
403 AM AKDT Fri Sep 26 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after
midnight.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ738-270030-
Shelikof Strait-
403 AM AKDT Fri Sep 26 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ742-270030-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
403 AM AKDT Fri Sep 26 2025

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ740-270030-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
403 AM AKDT Fri Sep 26 2025

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ741-270030-
Kachemak Bay-
403 AM AKDT Fri Sep 26 2025

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt except W 15 kt in the outer bay.
Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
502 AM AKDT Thu Sep 25 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Discussion:

The low over the northwest Gulf has weakened substantially as of
this morning. Scattered to widespread showers continue to rotate
around this low towards the northern Gulf coast, but are having a
much more difficult time trying to make it up and over the coastal
mountains. The upper low will continue to fall apart before moving
inland later today, but the surface low will linger and then deepen
slightly in response to an low crossing the southern AKPEN by mid to
late morning. The trough will quickly move across Southcentral and
the Gulf with modest cold air advection sweeping in behind it. Winds
will once again pick up to Gale force through the bays and passes of
the eastern Aleutians, AKPEN, and Barren Islands. This trough will
set the stage for the next low to dive down across Southwest Alaska
towards Bristol Bay then Kodiak Island on Friday through Saturday
morning. Models are in reasonable agreement on the track of the
upper low but do differ slightly in timing and exact low track.

Models also differ slightly on the strength of the cold air
advection as it gets dragged southwards. Both the track and the
strength of the cold air advection will play a role in precipitation
types and how far down the mountains snow could fall. Overall
precipitation amounts look light for inland Southcentral,
regardless of precipitation type, and probabilities look more
favorable for the higher terrain.

- PP

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Gale force winds have diminished across much of the
central/eastern Bering Sea, though widespread small craft winds
will continue over the next several days. The next impactful
system will be dropping south out of eastern Russia to skirt along
the Southwest Coast. Models are coming into better agreement
regarding this next low/trough, placing the first core of gales
right over the Pribilof Islands and then dropping south over the
southern Alaska Peninsula and Eastern Aleutians tonight through
Friday. A swath of cold air follows behind the trough, bringing a
round of reinvigorated gale force winds across much of the
eastern Bering Sea on Friday that will persist through Friday
night. Storm force gusts are expected through the usual gaps and
passes south of the Alaska Peninsula. Overall, the bulk of the
associated precipitation will be confined to the southern AKPen
and the Southwest Coast, though precipitation may spill inland
towards Bethel as well as along the upslope (western) side of the
Kilbuck Mountains. Cold air aloft reaching between -4F and -7F
will allow for overnight surface temperatures across Southwest
Alaska to drop below freezing tonight and dip into the 20's Friday
night and Saturday night. Benign conditions are expected across
the rest of the Bering Sea and Central/Western Aleutian Islands.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

Perhaps a quieter weather pattern in store for Southwest and
Southcentral Alaska Sunday into next week as high pressure builds
over the region. In the wake of a departing low over the Gulf of
Alaska, precipitation chances should wind down along with
diminishing winds. Weak northerly flow over Southcentral Alaska
and clearer skies may also result in some colder overnight low
temperatures. Farther west, gusty northerly winds may linger for
a hair longer across the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula,
but those too should taper off by the start of the work week.
Cooler temperatures will continue for Southwest Alaska, though
that does not come as a surprise for this time of year.

The main forecast challenge continues to be with what happens to
the remnants of Typhoon Neoguri, currently spinning idly over the
West Pacific. Due to a lack of meaningful steering flow, models
are struggling with resolving the future track of Neoguri. The GFS
continues to bring Neoguri into the Aleutian Chain on Monday of
next week, picked up by a passing upper trough. The ECMWF is
slower and much farther south. Regardless of its eventual track,
even more uncertainty lingers whether Neoguri will see any
resurgence in intensity as an extratropical cyclone. It's too far
out to expect any semblance of an accurate forecast for this
system, but will be good to continue monitoring its progression
and future model guidance. Keep an eye on the forecast in the
event that it does bring elevated winds to the Aleutians and
possibly Southwest Alaska later in the period.

BL

&&
.AVIATION...

PANC...Areas of low stratus and fog are developing north of the
terminal where skies have partially cleared out overnight. This
will bring the threat for IFR conditions or lower over the next
few hours as areas of low stratus and fog potentially drift over
west Anchorage. A few light showers moving northwest across the
Kenai Peninsula could make it over the mountains into Anchorage
periodically through tonight. However, any rain that does reach
the surface will likely remain very light, with VFR conditions and
light winds expected to prevail as soon as any fog/stratus clears
out later this morning.

&&