Gale Warning 899, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
510 PM AKST Sun Dec 28 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today
through Wednesday)...

Key Points:

* Strong and gusty winds ongoing over much of Southcentral,
  Kodiak Island, and the Gulf of Alaska coastal waters. Winds will
  persist through Monday for most areas before finally
  diminishing Monday night into Tuesday.

* High Wind Warnings remain in effect for the Matanuska Valley and
  Valdez up to Thompson Pass. Similar to other events this month,
  damage and power outages are likely, especially in the Matanuska
  Valley where another prolonged high wind event is underway.

* Temperatures will trend downward through Monday morning. When
  combined with winds, this will lead to widespread wind chill
  readings well below zero. A Cold Weather Advisory remains in
  effect for the northern Copper Valley and Tok Cutoff areas,
  where wind chills will drop as low as 40 below zero.

* A series of storms will track from the Pacific into the Gulf
  Monday through Tuesday, bringing a good chance of snow to most
  of the region along with somewhat warmer temperatures. A Winter
  Weather Advisory has been issued for Cordova or periods of snow
  and blowing snow.

An upper level trough is digging down over Southcentral, promoting
a more unsettled weather pattern, accompanied by a deep Arctic
airmass. The combination of strong downward motion from the upper
trough, cold air advection, and tight pressure gradients is
producing strong and gusty winds across much of the region. Areas
to the west of this trough are seeing the best overall forcing
for winds, with the strongest winds in Southcentral currently
blowing through the Matanuska Valley. This will be another
prolonged event, with gusts up to 80 mph likely through this
afternoon and through Monday morning. While the damaging level
winds will likely end Monday morning, winds will be slow to
diminish Monday afternoon through early Tuesday.

This latest cold windstorm will come to an end as a low pressure
trough tracks out of the Pacific and into the northern Gulf
Monday through Tuesday. This will push the Arctic airmass
currently over Southcentral, back to the northwest and bring
somewhat warmer temperatures and snow back to the region. It is
likely that most of Southcentral and Kodiak Island will see some
light snow as systems rotate from east to west across the Gulf and
Southcentral Monday afternoon through Tuesday. At this point,
snow accumulation looks light inland. Along the coast, Cordova
will see a period of initial snowfall paired with gusty winds
still making their way out of the area. This may result in blowing
snow conditions near Cordova reducing visibilities down to one
half-mile at times. Conditions expected to improve Tuesday morning
as precipitation rates and winds diminish significantly.

-CL

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Tonight through Wednesday)...

The weather pattern for Southwest Alaska, the Bering, and the
Aleutians remains relatively quiet compared to the past couple of
days with a high amplitude ridge now anchored over the Bering.
Cold air advection and associated gales across the eastern Bering
continue in the wake of the previous system, which will still
support heavy to extreme freezing spray through early this week.
Northerly flow will allow gap winds through favored bays and
passes along the AKPen and Eastern Aleutians to also persist
through early this week, with gap winds ranging from small craft
to high end gale force before weakening through Tuesday. A swath
of gale to storm force winds will develop and stream out of the
Shelikof Strait and south of Kodiak Island and the Alaska
Peninsula late tonight into Monday with the upper trough passage.
This will coincide with aforementioned gap winds draining out of
the Alaska Peninsula. With subsidence in place at the surface and
aloft over Southwest Alaska, widespread wind chill values of 30 to
40 degrees below zero can be expected through at least Monday
morning, with the coldest readings as low as 50 below for the Lime
Village/Sparrevohn areas. Ridging will continue to move eastward
through the short term period as a high end small craft to gale
force front approaches the Western Aleutians by midday Tuesday,
which will bring a round of rainfall and wind to the area.

-JH/AM

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

An amplified upper-level pattern continues mid-next week with a
ridge over the Bering Sea and an elongated trough across
Southcentral Alaska anchored by a closed low in the Gulf of
Alaska. Synoptically-forced gap winds through the Alaska Peninsula
and Kamishak will begin to diminish through the day Thursday as a
complex low in the Gulf weakens. Chances for light snow showers
along the southcentral coast/Copper River Basin continue at the
end of next week as warmer air and moisture wrap northward around
the Gulf low.

Out west, a series of fronts and shortwave troughs lift into the
Bering Sea and track along the Aleutians through the end of the
week. These systems bring warmer air with mostly rain to the
Aleutians, though the leading (north) edge of the front could have
precipitation begin as snow for locations on the Alaska Peninsula
and in the Pribilof Islands. Through the end of the week, the
ridge is eroded by the progression of these features, and the
pattern becomes dominated by broad troughing over mainland Alaska
and the Gulf. Given this pattern, it seems likely that even more
cold air will be drawn southward, especially into Southwest
Alaska. This could bring the lowest temperatures seen thus far
this season for next weekend, with ambient temperatures 30 to 40
below zero in the Kuskokwim Valley. Elsewhere across southern
mainland Alaska, temperatures also remain below average.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions expected through the period. North winds
will remain strong and gusty, with gusts of up to 40 kts through
Monday. There could be occasional gusts up to 50 kt. Winds will
steadily decrease Monday through Monday night.

&&