Gale Warning 897, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
508 AM AKST Sun Dec 28 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today
through Tuesday night)...

Key Points:

* Strong and gusty winds have developed over much of Southcentral,
  Kodiak Island, and the Gulf of Alaska coastal waters. Winds will
  persist through Monday for most areas before finally diminishing
  Monday night into Tuesday.

* High Wind Warnings remain in effect for the Matanuska Valley and
  Valdez up to Thompson Pass. Similar to other events this month,
  damage and power outages are likely, especially in the Matanuska
  Valley where another prolonged high wind event is underway.

* Temperatures will trend downward through Monday morning. When
  combined with winds, this will lead to widespread wind chill
  readings well below zero. A Cold Weather Advisory remains in
  effect for the northern Copper Valley and Tok Cutoff areas,
  where wind chills will drop as low as 40 below zero.

* A series of storms will track from the Pacific into the Gulf
  Monday through Tuesday, bringing a good chance of snow to most
  of the region along with somewhat warmer temperatures.

A high amplitude blocking ridge has been reestablished over the
Bering Sea. A strong short-wave trough is digging down the east
side of the ridge into Southcentral Alaska and the western Gulf
this morning, accompanied by a deep Arctic airmass. Meanwhile,
there is approximately 52 mb difference in pressure from a surface
high over northeast AK and a low in the northeastern Gulf. The
combination of strong downward motion from the upper trough, cold
air advection, and tight pressure gradients is producing strong
and gusty winds across much of the region. Areas of light snow are
also being observed out ahead of the upper trough from Cordova to
the southern and eastern Copper River Basin.

The forecast for the next couple days is on track, so only minor
adjustments were made this morning. Confidence is now high that
the upper short-wave will stall right over the heart of
Southcentral this afternoon, roughly from Kodiak Island to the
eastern Kenai Peninsula to the Copper River Valley. Areas to the
west of this axis will see the best overall forcing for winds,
with the axis of cold air advection and the low level jet centered
from the Mat-Su southward down Cook Inlet to northern Kodiak
Island and Shelikof Strait. Have generally trended up a bit with
the wind forecast for these areas. As has been the case so often
this month, the strongest winds will be in the Matanuska Valley,
where atmospheric flow will align perfectly to drive Arctic air
from the western Copper Basin southwestward down the Matanuska
River and across the heart of Palmer and Wasilla. This will be
another prolonged event, with gusts up to 80 mph likely this
afternoon through Monday morning. While the damaging level winds
will likely end Monday morning, winds will be slow to diminish
Monday afternoon through early Tuesday.

This latest cold windstorm will come to an end as short-waves and
surface lows track out of the Pacific and into the Gulf Monday
through Tuesday. This will push the Arctic trough over Southcentral
back to the north and west and bring somewhat warmer temperatures
and snow back to the region. It's too soon to nail down the
details of individual storms, with fairly large model spread at
this point in time. However, it is looking increasingly likely
that most of Southcentral and Kodiak Island will see some light
snow as systems rotate from east to west across the Gulf and
Southcentral Monday afternoon through Tuesday. At this point, snow
accumulation looks light. The bigger threat might be blowing snow
and reduced visibilities in locations where the wind is still
blowing as snow arrives. Some locations we are watching for this
potential include Thompson Pass, Seward, and Kodiak City. Lastly,
a strong upper low and short-wave will drive eastward across
western AK Tuesday night, potentially bringing another round of
snowfall to the western Kenai, Anchorage, and the Mat-Su.

-SB

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Tonight through Tuesday)...

The weather pattern for Southwest Alaska, the Bering, and the
Aleutians has become much quieter compared to just 24 hours ago.
Cold air advection and associated gales continue in the wake of
the previous system, which will still support heavy to extreme
freezing spray through early next week. A 500 mb arctic trough
continues to dig southward over the Alaska Peninsula, which will
cause an increase in gap winds through favored bays and passes for
the area. To the west, an amplified, vertically stacked, and
transient ridge is taking control over the Bering for now. With
subsidence in place at the surface and aloft, areas under a Cold
Weather Advisory across Southwest Alaska will likely hit -45F wind
chills as advertised. Looking forward in time, a swath of gale to
storm force winds will develop and stream out of the Shelikof
Strait and south of Kodiak Island and the Alaska Peninsula late
Sunday into Monday with the upper trough passage. This will
coincide with aforementioned gap winds draining out of the Alaska
Peninsula. Ridging will move eastward through the short term
period as a high end small craft to gale force front approaches
the Western Aleutians by midday Tuesday, which will bring a round
of rainfall and wind to the area.

-AM

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

An amplified upper-level pattern continues mid-next week with a
ridge over the Bering Sea and an elongated trough across
Southcentral Alaska anchored by a closed low in the Gulf of
Alaska. Synoptically-forced gap winds to gale force will also be
ongoing through the Alaska Peninsula and Kamishak Gap Wednesday
morning, to the west of the stacked, complex low in the Gulf.
These gap winds are enhanced, with potential to reach storm force,
on Wednesday as there is good agreement on a surge of cold air
dropping south across Southwest Alaska and crossing the Aleutian
Range into the western Gulf. Over Southcentral Alaska,
southeasterly flow wrapping warmer air and moisture northward around
the Gulf low, light snow showers look to be possible through much
of next week, though chances are overall quite low but will be
most favored in the Copper River Basin.

Out west, a series of fronts and shortwave troughs lift into the
Bering Sea and track along the Aleutians through the end of the
week. These systems bring warmer air with mostly rain to the
Aleutians, though the leading (north) edge of the front could
have precipitation begin as snow for locations on the Alaska
Peninsula and in the Pribilof Islands. Through the end of the
week, the ridge is eroded by the progression of these features,
and the pattern becomes dominated by broad troughing over mainland
Alaska and the Gulf. Given this pattern, it seems likely that even
more cold air will be drawn southward, especially into Southwest
Alaska. This could bring the lowest temperatures seen thus far
this season for next weekend, with ambient temperatures 30 to 40
below zero in the Kuskokwim Valley. Elsewhere across southern
mainland Alaska, temperatures also remain below average.

Quesada

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions expected through the period with the
exception of maybe a few briefs dips in visibility from blowing
snow from recent snowfall. North winds will remain strong and
gusty, with gusts of up to 40 kts through Monday. There could be
occasional gusts up to 50 kt. Winds will steadily decrease Monday
through Monday night.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1241 PM AKST Sun Dec 28 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1216 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst Valdez Airport          61.13N 146.25W
12/28/2025  M55 MPH          Chugach            AK   AWOS

&&

PP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
229 PM AKST Sun Dec 28 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0153 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst Palmer Municipal Airpor 61.59N 149.09W
12/28/2025  M78 MPH          Matanuska-Susitna  AK   ASOS

            Max wind gust of 78 mph as of 2 PM. Blowing
            dust being observed with visibility down to
            5-6 miles at times.

&&

PP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
244 PM AKST Sun Dec 28 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 6 SW Palmer             61.55N 149.25W
12/28/2025  M80 MPH          Matanuska-Susitna  AK   Mesonet

            Max gust of 80 mph as of 150 PM at the Glenn
            Highway at MP 34.5 mesonet.

&&

PP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
246 PM AKST Sun Dec 28 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst Thompson Pass           61.13N 145.73W
12/28/2025  M76 MPH          Chugach            AK   Mesonet

            Max wind gust of 76 mph as of 2 PM at
            Thompson Pass MP 2.

&&

PP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
252 PM AKST Sun Dec 28 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0146 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst Wasilla Airport         61.57N 149.54W
12/28/2025  M62 MPH          Matanuska-Susitna  AK   AWOS

            Max wind gust of 62 mph as of 2 PM.
            Sustained winds of 35 to 45 mph with gusts
            of 50 to 60 mph.

&&

PP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
330 PM AKST Sun Dec 28 2025

AKZ701-723-291500-
Anchorage-NW Kenai Peninsula-
Including the cities of Anchorage, Eagle River, Eklutna, Kenai,
Soldotna, Sterling, and Nikiski
330 PM AKST Sun Dec 28 2025

...STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ALONG
KNIK ARM, NORTH TO WEST ANCHORAGE, AND THE NORTHWESTERN KENAI
PENINSULA...

Northerly winds will peak this afternoon, continuing through
Monday morning. Wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph are likely, though
there may be a few stronger gusts on JBER. The areas most likely
to see winds include the portions of Chugiak and Birchwood west of
the Glenn Highway, JBER and Government Hill, Downtown Anchorage
and all of west Anchorage. For the rest of Anchorage and Eagle
River, winds will be much lighter. Winds along the Kenai Peninsula
will be strongest from Nikiski to Kenai, with gusts of 35 to 50
mph. Winds will slowly diminish Monday afternoon through Monday
night.