Gale Warning 204, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
834 PM AKST Sun Mar 2 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
3)...

A low pressure system moving through Southwest Alaska continues
to draw warm and gusty flow through the eastern gaps such as
Turnagain Arm. Warm temperatures have, and will continue to be,
the talk of the forecast for the next few days for interior
Southcentral. Areas such as Palmer and Homer reaching 50 degrees
this afternoon, a trend expected to continue through the early
portion of the workweek. Gusty southeasterly winds across the
western reaches of Anchorage to diminish tonight as the low over
Southwest shifts further north, and northerly flow sets in out of
the Mat- Su Valleys. Periods of clear skies for Anchorage, the
Western Kenai Peninsula, and the Copper River Basin to come and
go over the next few days, partially contributing towards the
warmer daytime temperatures.

Rain along the Prince William Sound coastline to continue tonight
and tomorrow, diminishing by Monday afternoon and evening. The
break in the coastal precipitation will be halted by yet another
north Pacific low moving north into the Gulf by Tuesday morning,
competing with a stout ridge that is developing over the AlCan
border. However, by Wednesday the northern Gulf coast will likely
be enveloped by a broad trough developing to the west. This will
keep the pattern active and reintroduce some colder air aloft.
Uncertainty is very high with the track of these systems and any
smaller embedded shortwaves as it tracks in from the west. This
would lead to another prolonged period of showers across the
Southcentral coastline, with gusty easterly winds possible again.
Given the difference in upper-level forcing and support,
confidence is low regarding the expected influence from this
upcoming system to areas such as Anchorage, western Kenai, and the
Mat-Su valleys, but given the flow pattern, it initially appears
to be favorable for more downsloping and dry weather.

-CL

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Sunday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon)...

Active weather continues as several storms move across the Bering
Sea/Aleutian Islands and Southwest Alaska through mid-week. Have
generally trended the forecast warmer, with greater detail for
winds and precipitation as forecast confidence increases. A Winter
Weather Advisory remains in effect for the Kuskokwim Delta coast
and Nunivak Island through midnight tonight. For marine areas,
gale and storm warnings are in effect as a strong low moves into
the Western Bering Sea tomorrow, with heavy freezing spray
warnings in effect for marine areas bordering the sea ice edge.
Although the weather will certainly be active, no additional
hazards are anticipated at this time.

Diving into the details... temperatures today warmed across
Southwest Alaska a bit more quickly than forecast. Snow changed
over to rain early this morning for the Lower Kuskokwim Valley,
and by early this afternoon for the Kuskokwim Delta from about
Bethel east. For the Kuskokwim Delta coast, conditions appear to
be playing out as forecast; the weather station at Mekoryuk is
recording visibilities of less than a mile, while webcams in
Newtok and Toksook Bay show visibilities of one-half mile or less
at times. The threat of blowing snow and reduced visibilities
should end by late this evening as winds weaken.

A couple other notes for Southwest Alaska: while it's still
possible, the likelihood of freezing rain and ice accumulations
have diminished as forecast temperatures have trended warmer.
There's still a slight chance for light ice accumulations, but
the expectation is that precipitation will be light to minimal in
the downsloped areas where the thermal profile favors freezing
rain. Speaking of precipitation, precipitation chances in our
forecast are likely leaning on the lower end of the envelope of
possibilities for tomorrow as a rather small low slides north
across the Alaska Peninsula and then along the Southwest Alaska
coastline. With model agreement improving, it seems there may be a
greater chance for precipitation for Kuskokwim Delta and Lower
Kuskokwim Valley than is currently in the forecast.

Shifting focus to the Bering Sea, Aleutian Islands, and a bit of
the Alaska Peninsula: in the near term, snow amounts may be a
little underdone as snow showers move across the Eastern
Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula. As such, these areas could pick up
just a bit more snow tonight into early tomorrow than is currently
in the forecast. By Tuesday, as a broad low begins to occlude in
the Bering Sea, forecast confidence decreases as surface low(s)
attempt to spin up and take advantage of the lingering vorticity.
Keep an eye on the forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday as the
finer details of the forecast may differ depending on which low(s)
dominate.

-Chen

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Thursday through
Sunday)...

The high amplitude upper level ridge extending over Southeast
Alaska and Western Canada will continue to be pushed east as broad
upper troughing moves in from the Bering Sea and Western Alaska.
A generally unsettled pattered will kick off the long term period
with relatively good model agreement in the upper levels of the
atmosphere and more uncertain surface features locally enhancing
the weather. A surface low supported by Pacific moisture and
troughing aloft will bring a round of moderate precipitation to
Prince William Sound on Thursday before moving on towards the
Panhandle later in the week. Northerly flow on the backside of the
low will bring in colder air and could cause gusty winds through
bays and passes of the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula.

Upper ridging will track across the Bering Sea Friday and
Saturday, quickly being followed by another low pressure system.
Drier conditions are expected for Southcentral to start the
weekend as high pressure moves over the state. The low following
the aforementioned ridge will likely bring widespread
precipitation and gusty southerly winds to the Aleutian Chain as
it marches eastward, but there is still uncertainty about the
low's strength at this time. Most of Alaska will continue to see
warmer than normal temperatures for the next week, with cooler
temperatures possible by the weekend as northerly flow comes in
behind the trough.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist throughout the TAF period.
Turnagain Arm winds bending into the terminal are expected to
diminish by 04Z this evening. As winds at the surface decrease and
shift northerly, southeasterly winds may continue to be stronger
above the surface to about 2000 feet at 35 kts. Thus, low level
wind shear may be possible during the initial transition of
surface winds for a few hours tonight. The threat of low level
wind shear should be gone by 09Z.

rux

&&