Gale Warning 203, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
537 AM AKST Sun Mar 2 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
3)...

Another warm day is in store for Southcentral Alaska as a low
pressure system moving into Southwest Alaska brings warm
southeasterly winds throughout the region's gaps and passes.
Already, temperatures are in the mid 40s throughout the Kenai
Peninsula, and parts of Anchorage where the wind is mixing down a
sharp inversion in the lower levels. The 12Z Anchorage sounding is
showing a warm nose of 43F just 400 feet above the surface, so
it's not taking much wind to drive temperatures up. Areas from the
Kenai north into the Mat-Su may hit 50 today. Meanwhile, a front
is moving into the Sound and Kenai Peninsula once again, where it
will take up residence through Monday with light coastal rain and
snow above ~1300ft. Most lee side areas will remain dry due to
downsloping, with Anchorage, the Mat Valley, and Copper Basin all
expected to get some breezy southeasterly winds this afternoon as
the low center moves north of 60N. These may be brief for
Anchorage, but expect gusty winds to persist in the higher
elevations through Monday.

By Monday afternoon there will be a break in the coastal
precipitation as yet another north Pacific low tries to make it's
way north into the Gulf. However, this time it will competing
with a stout ridge that is developing over the AlCan border. Model
guidance is struggling with the north-south positioning of the
low and it's interaction with the ridge. Currently the NAM is
driving the front all the way north into the Kenai once again,
while most other modeling systems keep it primarily over Kodiak
Island. Given the strength of the ridge developing, the NAM
solution is less likely. By Wednesday the region will begin to get
enveloped by a broad trough developing to the west. This will
keep the pattern active and reintroduce some colder air aloft.
Uncertainty is very high with the track of each system and
shortwave as it tracks in from the west.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Sunday to Tuesday)...

The North Pacific Low discussed in previous forecasts remains the
focus of the short term period. Late last night, its front pushed
over the Central Aleutians and the AKPen bringing strong winds,
warmer air and a change from snow to rain for the area. Wind gusts
up to 35 mph and snowfall accumulations up to 2 inches occurred.
Satellite and radar show that this low is currently in Bristol
Bay. It will continue to work its way northward today bringing
snow, rain and windy conditions to SWAK into late this evening.

Snow has fallen overnight in locations from Dillingham to
Koliganek northward and a change over to a rain/snow mix has
taken place locations south of this line. Widespread mixed rain
and snow showers will continue through early this afternoon before
switching to all rain in the AK Pen and Bristol Bay Region.
However, a period of dry conditions in the usual downsloped areas
of the AK Pen are likely today as well. Winds will remain gusty
too through most of the day.

High pressure west of St. Lawrence Island keeps persistent
northerly winds into the Kuskokwim Delta from Kipnuk to Bethel
northward today. The cooler are will result in a longer period of
snow before an eventual changeover to rain early Monday morning.
Accumulations range from 3 to 6 inches and an here with isolated
higher amounts along the coast. A winter weather advisory is in
effect through midnight tonight for the Kuskokwim Delta area.

A front begins to move across the Western Aleutians Tuesday
signaling gale force winds for the Bering Sea west of Adak early
this week.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Wednesday through
Saturday)...

The high amplitude upper level ridge extending over Southeast
Alaska and Western Canada across Interior Alaska begins to be
pushed east as upper troughing makes its way in from the Pacific.
A surface low supported by Pacific moisture and troughing aloft
will bring a round of moderate precipitation to the eastern Kenai
Peninsula and Prince William Sound on Wednesday before moving on
towards the Panhandle later in the week. Northerly flow on the
backside of the low could cause gusty winds through bays and
passes of the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula. By Friday,
upper ridging will track across the Bering Sea, quickly being
followed by another low pressure system. This low will likely
bring widespread precipitation and gusty southerly winds to the
Western Aleutians on Friday and Saturday. We are expecting
increased precipitation chances for the Aleutian Chain, Bering
Sea, and mainland Alaska as it marches eastward through the
weekend. Most of Alaska will continue to see warmer than normal
temperatures for the next week, with cooler temperatures possible
at the end of next weekend as northerly flow comes in behind the
trough.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist throughout the TAF period.
Marginal LLWS will be possible at the terminal as southeast
winds aloft strengthen ahead of an approaching frontal system, at
least until surface winds become stronger and southeasterly later
today. Winds blowing out of the Turnagain Arm are expected to
temporarily bend into the terminal as the frontal wave approaches
late this morning and into this afternoon from approximately 18z
this morning to 3z this evening. Gusts of up to 20 kts or so will
be possible at times, but there is still uncertainty regarding
the exact timing and strength of these winds. There could be a few
sprinkles reaching the surface as the front moves past later this
morning, but ceilings should stay well into VFR range.

-AS

&&