Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Aberdeen, SD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
732 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- SLIGHT RISK (2 of 5) again for today and tonight. Wind and hail
  are the primary threats, though can't rule out a brief tornado
  in far eastern SD/western MN.

- Two rounds of storms are expected in the slight risk. The first
  will develop late this afternoon in eastern SD/west central MN.
  The second will move in from the west late this evening and
  progress east through Sunday morning.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 712 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

A front is draped southwest to northeast across the forecast area
this afternoon, stretching from south central SD to around Sisseton.
Areas along and east of this forcing mechanism will be in the
cross-hairs for severe storms this evening. Hi-res CAMS are
pointing to a start time of 22z around the Sisseton hills. 35 kts
of bulk shear and 3000 to 4500 J/kg MUCAPE with no significant cap
(+10- +12C) provide a decent set up for discrete cells with hail
and wind. Low level helicity increases toward 1z across east
central SD and west central MN with an STP of 1 to 2 on the RAP13,
so can't rule out a tornado or two either as bulk shear increases
to 45 kts.

Another round of thunderstorms moves in from the west and southwest
around 5z. This looks to be mostly post frontal with an agitated
shortwave trough. With 40 to 50 kts of bulk shear and 2000 to 3000
J/kg of CAPE in central SD at the time convection, the potential for
strong to severe hail and wind gusts exists through the night.

The other concern will be the potential for flooding across the east
and Jones/Lyman county where antecedent conditions have left wet
soils and creeks near bankfull.

The shortwave trough exits Sunday morning with weak sfc high
pressure building in behind it. However, another shortwave trough
moves through Sunday night with an upper trough/backdoor cold front
that could set off some showers through Monday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 712 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Outside of thunderstorms, VFR conditions are forecast to prevail
through Sunday afternoon. Thunderstorms are, and probably will be,
developing over and near the KATY terminal for the next few hours.
Large hail, damaging winds, a tornado and heavy rain are all
possible with this evenings thunderstorms there at KATY.

Elsewhere, the KPIR/KMBG and KABR terminals may experience
thunderstorms later tonight into Sunday morning. Prob30s are in
the forecast for that, although timing will need to be adjusted
before it's all said and done.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...10

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
642 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-291145-
Traverse-Big Stone-Corson-Campbell-McPherson-Brown-Marshall-Roberts-
Walworth-Edmunds-Day-Dewey-Potter-Faulk-Spink-Clark-Codington-Grant-
Hamlin-Deuel-Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Jones-Lyman-Buffalo-
642 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 /542 AM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Minnesota,
central South Dakota, north central South Dakota and northeast
South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms east of a
line from Pierre to Aberdeen with storms expected to develop along a
stalled boundary in central and eastern South Dakota later this
afternoon. Storms come with the risk for large hail and damaging
winds. We cannot rule out a tornado or two in far eastern South
Dakota and western Minnesota.

Another round of storms will move into central South Dakota from the
west during the early morning hours Sunday. The risk for widespread
severe weather with this cluster of storms is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested. Weather spotters are encouraged
to submit reports to the National Weather Service in Aberdeen. The
public can submit reports on our web page, Facebook page, or our X
feed.

TMT

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
708 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0707 PM     Tornado          Tunerville              44.89N 96.68W
06/28/2025                   Deuel              SD   Trained Spotter

            Trees blown down and abandoned structure was
            damaged/hit.

&&

NV

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
717 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0716 PM     Funnel Cloud     2 ENE Clear Lake        44.78N 96.64W
06/28/2025                   Deuel              SD   Trained Spotter

            Photo on X of a new funnel cloud coming from
            storm.

&&

NV

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
815 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0813 PM     Tornado          5 WNW Lake Cochrane Rec 44.75N 96.54W
06/28/2025                   Deuel              SD   Trained Spotter

            Spotter called with a Tornado on the ground.

&&

NV

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
817 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0816 PM     Funnel Cloud     3 E Clear Lake          44.77N 96.62W
06/28/2025                   Deuel              SD   Storm Chaser

            Called about Funnel almost to the ground
            with some ground debris being spun and
            tossed around.

&&

NV

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
831 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     Tornado          1 WNW Lake Cochrane Rec 44.71N 96.48W
06/28/2025                   Deuel              SD   Law Enforcement

            Tornado reported around the Lake Cochrane
            Rec Area.

&&

NV

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
847 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0847 PM     Tornado          Gary                    44.79N 96.46W
06/28/2025                   Deuel              SD   Law Enforcement

            Tornado in Gary took out a house.

&&

NV