Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Aberdeen, SD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
934 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- SLIGHT RISK (2 of 5) again for today and tonight. Wind and hail
  are the primary threats, though can't rule out a brief tornado
  in far eastern SD/western MN.

- Two rounds of storms are expected in the slight risk. The first
  will develop late this afternoon in eastern SD/west central MN.
  The second will move in from the west late this evening and
  progress east through Sunday morning.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 924 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Tornados, large hail, torrential rainfall; all happening over the
CWA (southeastern zones mostly) late this afternoon through right
now. The low level environment for tornado potential across the
eastern forecast zones has been notable. And, so has the
deep-layer environment for supercell storms (high end CAPE/shear).
Storms from southeast North Dakota have entered CWA airspace
within the past hour, and are moving southeast along the Dakotas
border with Minnesota. Again, for the next couple of hours, the
atmosphere remains supportive of this ongoing convection. Storms
have been developing and then redeveloping over Hamlin/Codington
counties since appx 530pm CDT this afternoon. Seeing additional
showers and thunderstorms either ongoing or developing over
Montana and Wyoming at this hour, which guidance has been
indicating would develop and spred across, at least, the southern
two-thirds of South Dakota later tonight into Sunday morning.

UPDATE Issued at 712 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

A front is draped southwest to northeast across the forecast area
this afternoon, stretching from south central SD to around Sisseton.
Areas along and east of this forcing mechanism will be in the
cross-hairs for severe storms this evening. Hi-res CAMS are
pointing to a start time of 22z around the Sisseton hills. 35 kts
of bulk shear and 3000 to 4500 J/kg MUCAPE with no significant cap
(+10- +12C) provide a decent set up for discrete cells with hail
and wind. Low level helicity increases toward 1z across east
central SD and west central MN with an STP of 1 to 2 on the RAP13,
so can't rule out a tornado or two either as bulk shear increases
to 45 kts.

Another round of thunderstorms moves in from the west and southwest
around 5z. This looks to be mostly post frontal with an agitated
shortwave trough. With 40 to 50 kts of bulk shear and 2000 to 3000
J/kg of CAPE in central SD at the time convection, the potential for
strong to severe hail and wind gusts exists through the night.

The other concern will be the potential for flooding across the east
and Jones/Lyman county where antecedent conditions have left wet
soils and creeks near bankfull.

The shortwave trough exits Sunday morning with weak sfc high
pressure building in behind it. However, another shortwave trough
moves through Sunday night with an upper trough/backdoor cold front
that could set off some showers through Monday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 712 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Outside of thunderstorms, VFR conditions are forecast to prevail
through Sunday afternoon. Thunderstorms are, and probably will be,
developing over and near the KATY terminal for the next few hours.
Large hail, damaging winds, a tornado and heavy rain are all
possible with this evenings thunderstorms there at KATY.

Elsewhere, the KPIR/KMBG and KABR terminals may experience
thunderstorms later tonight into Sunday morning. Prob30s are in
the forecast for that, although timing will need to be adjusted
before it's all said and done.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...10
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...10

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
642 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-291145-
Traverse-Big Stone-Corson-Campbell-McPherson-Brown-Marshall-Roberts-
Walworth-Edmunds-Day-Dewey-Potter-Faulk-Spink-Clark-Codington-Grant-
Hamlin-Deuel-Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Jones-Lyman-Buffalo-
642 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 /542 AM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Minnesota,
central South Dakota, north central South Dakota and northeast
South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms east of a
line from Pierre to Aberdeen with storms expected to develop along a
stalled boundary in central and eastern South Dakota later this
afternoon. Storms come with the risk for large hail and damaging
winds. We cannot rule out a tornado or two in far eastern South
Dakota and western Minnesota.

Another round of storms will move into central South Dakota from the
west during the early morning hours Sunday. The risk for widespread
severe weather with this cluster of storms is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested. Weather spotters are encouraged
to submit reports to the National Weather Service in Aberdeen. The
public can submit reports on our web page, Facebook page, or our X
feed.

TMT

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
901 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0858 PM     Hail             3 S Gary                44.75N 96.46W
06/28/2025  M2.00 Inch       Deuel              SD   Public

            Report from mPING: Hen Egg (2.00 in.).

&&

NV

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
921 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 PM     Funnel Cloud     6 SW Kranzburg          44.82N 96.99W
06/28/2025                   Codington          SD   Law Enforcement

            Funnel cloud spotted just west of I-29 at
            mile marker 174.

&&

NV

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
942 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 PM     Hail             4 W Castlewood          44.73N 97.11W
06/28/2025  M1.00 Inch       Hamlin             SD   Trained Spotter

&&

NV

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1015 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1013 PM     Funnel Cloud     3 NE Astoria            44.59N 96.50W
06/28/2025                   Deuel              SD   Trained Spotter

            Spotter reported a possible rain-wrapped
            tornado while heading towards Brandt.

&&

NV

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1018 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1016 PM     Tornado          1 E Toronto             44.57N 96.62W
06/28/2025                   Deuel              SD   Law Enforcement

            state radio report of tornado 1 mile east of
            Toronto.

&&

NV

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1019 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1018 PM     Tornado          1 N Toronto             44.59N 96.64W
06/28/2025                   Deuel              SD   Law Enforcement

            state radio report of a different tornado 1
            mile north of Toronto.

&&

NV