Wind Advisory 14, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1041 AM MST Sun Mar 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1028 AM MST Sun Mar 2 2025

A series of multi-hazard Pacific storms will impact central and
northern New Mexico today through next weekend:

- Fire Weather: Critical fire weather conditions become more
  widespread on Monday afternoon when strong winds and low
  humidity develop. Strong winds stick around Tuesday, but a
  slight increase in moisture will produce only near-critical fire
  weather conditions across southern areas.

- Strong Winds and Blowing Dust: Strong to damaging winds will
  create areas of blowing dust that may reduce visibility on
  roadways, including in Roswell, today through Tuesday, with the
  highest confidence on Monday.

- Slick Travel: Another round of snow will favor northern New
  Mexico late Monday through early Tuesday with higher terrain
  areas having the greatest potential for travel impacts.

- Outlook: Confidence is increasing in another round of strong
  winds and critical fire weather in central and eastern areas
  Thursday and Friday. A colder and wetter Pacific storm may bring
  more precipitation as well.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 310 AM MST Sun Mar 2 2025

A Pacific low will bring cooler conditions and some light
precipitation today, with stronger winds across south central and
southeast NM where areas of blowing dust may develop. A potent
Pacific system will hit the area Monday and Tuesday with strong to
potentially damaging winds and areas of blowing dust. Look for a
short-lived break on Wednesday, followed by another Pacific
system toward the end of the work week that will bring more strong
winds, some blowing dust, cooler temperatures and mountain snow.
Warming conditions with less wind are forecast behind the
departing Pacific system for the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 310 AM MST Sun Mar 2 2025

An active weather pattern is getting underway with one upper level
low pressure system tracking eastward over our southern tier of
counties today, and another tracking eastward over central and
southern CO on Monday.  Both of these storm systems will pack strong
winds.  Today's upper low will track farther south than models were
previously indicating, so we cancelled the High Wind Watches that
were in effect and will issue a Wind Advisory instead for eastern
Lincoln and Chaves Counties.  Peak gusts will probably reach around
55 mph in the Guadalupe Mountains this morning since a strong jet
streak will pass nearly overhead there. Another strong speed maximum
in the polar jet will cross southern and eastern pars of the
forecast area on Monday, while a very strong surface low pressure
system craters around 985 mb in eastern CO. Models are unusually
consistent this far in advance for high sustained winds around 35-40
knots across the entire area east of the central mountain chain
Monday. With this forecast package we are expanding the coverage
of the High Wind Watch for Monday. We are also starting the Watch
as early as 8 AM in the south central mountains, where the nose of
the polar jet will arrive earlier in the day. Later shifts will
probably buffet Monday's High Wind Watch with some Wind Advisories
over much of the central mountain chain and central valley. Given
how dry it has been, there will probably be areas of blowing dust
across the east on Monday, and around Roswell both today and
Monday. There will also be fire weather concerns over southern and
eastern areas on Monday.

Besides the wind there will also be precipitation today and Monday.
Rain and mainly mountain snow showers are forecast over northern
and central parts of the forecast area this morning, then over the
northeast quarter of the forecast area in the early afternoon.
Further, instability looks sufficient for isolated thunderstorms
in the mix over northeast areas late this morning through early
afternoon, where much of Union County may accumulate around a
quarter inch of rain. In addition, the Sangre de Cristo Mountains
may receive an inch or so of snow on higher peaks today. Monday's
precip will be lighter and favor the northwest third of the
forecast area, since the storm system looks to remain over CO.
Again, a few thunderstorms will probably be in the mix Monday.

High temperatures will trend cooler areawide today, and central and
west on Monday.  Readings will bottom out a few to as much as 15
degrees below 30-year averages over central and western areas on
Monday, while eastern readings remain a few to several degrees
above the averages both days.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 310 AM MST Sun Mar 2 2025

The upper low is forecast to eject northeast out of southern CO
Monday night with lee side cyclogenesis tightening the pressure
gradient across the region, bringing a resurgence of strong to
potentially damaging winds going into Tuesday. Wrap-around
precipitation is forecast across northern NM Monday night into
Tuesday morning, with a couple inches of snow likely across the
higher terrain. Wrap-around snow may impact Raton Pass to near
Capulin through mid day Tuesday, with potential for significant
impacts to travel and possible white-out conditions given strong
and gusty northwest winds. Will definitely need wind highlights
for late Monday night through Tuesday, with the potential for more
high wind across eastern portions of the area. More blowing dust
is likely Tuesday and the highest forecast confidence in/near
Roswell. Winds will relax Tuesday night as a ridge swells and
shifts east over the region, brining a short-lived break from
this active weather regime on Wednesday. Another potent upper
level trough/low will advance east from along the west coast on
Thursday, bringing increasing/backing southwest winds aloft and a
deepening lee side surface trough by Thursday afternoon. Windy to
very windy conditions are forecast Thursday ahead of a Pacific
cold front, with more blowing dust likely. This system is bringing
sufficient moisture for precipitation, but forecast confidence
decreases going into Friday as an upper low fills and pulls
northeast into the central Rockies and a potent trailing trough
dives southeast from central CA. We'll end the work-week with
below normal temperature behind the Pacific cold front, but a
rapid warm-up is forecast for the weekend as an impressive ridge
swells over the region and sends temperatures above normal
areawide by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1028 AM MST Sun Mar 2 2025

An upper level low exiting eastern NM late this morning will draw
much drier air and breezy west winds into the region today. Gusts
between 15 and 30KT will be common along and south of I-40 this
afternoon. Much stronger flow aloft in the wake of this system has
led to numerous PIREPs for turbulence. Flow aloft will back out of
the southwest tonight while a thick cirrus shield spreads over the
region. These high clouds will then clear from west to east and
give way to strong southwest winds after 9am Monday. Gusts of 30
to 40KT will be common by 12pm with dust source regions beginning
to activate across the region.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 310 AM MST Sun Mar 2 2025

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MONDAY FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHERN, CENTRAL, AND EASTERN NM...

A fire growing pattern will develop today through Tuesday as a
couple of windy upper level low pressure systems cross the southern
Rockies. The first upper low is now forecast to track eastward just
south of I-40 this morning, then exit eastward over the TX panhandle
this afternoon. Breezy to windy conditions will impact southern
parts of the fire weather forecast area with the strongest winds
during late morning and around midday. Humidities mostly in the
upper teens and 20s percent should preclude the need for any fire
weather highlights today. The storm system will produce some light
rain and snow showers, as well as a few thunderstorms, mainly
over north central and northeast areas today. Wetting precip
looks spotty except for around a quarter inch of rain forecast
across much of Union County.

The second storm system will steer a strong speed max in the polar
jet stream overhead as it crosses Colorado Monday, then exits
slowly over the Great Plains Monday night. The storm system looks
to produce wind gusts around 65 or 70 mph east of the central
mountain chain Monday with gusts from 35-50 mph further west.
Winds will probably remain fairly strong Monday night as the upper
low rapidly deepens in the lee of the CO Rockies. Then, northwest
wind gusts from 40-55 mph look common on Tuesday in the wake of
the exiting system. Humidities will drop near and below 15
percent across south central and eastern parts of the forecast
area on Monday, where Red Flag Warnings remain in effect. Monday's
storm system may also produce some light rain and snow showers,
and perhaps a few thunderstorms, over the northwest third of the
forecast area. Humidities look to remain near and above 18 percent on
Tuesday as temperatures fall below average, so we aren't planning
any fire weather highlights for that day. However, near critical
fire weather conditions are forecast across much of the forecast
area since northwest winds will be so strong. There will probably
be some lingering rain and snow showers from the northern
mountains eastward on Tuesday.

A ridge of high pressure will pass eastward over the forecast area
with lighter winds Wednesday, but a broad upper level low pressure
system crossing the central Rockies will bring another round of wind
and fire weather concerns Thursday and to a lesser extent Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  64  30  47  30 /  10   0  40  60
Dulce...........................  59  21  45  18 /  40   5  50  60
Cuba............................  59  26  46  23 /  30   0  20  60
Gallup..........................  61  24  42  21 /   0   0  30  60
El Morro........................  56  27  40  23 /   5   0  20  60
Grants..........................  61  22  45  23 /  10   0  10  40
Quemado.........................  58  29  44  24 /   0   0  20  30
Magdalena.......................  62  34  52  29 /   5   0   0  10
Datil...........................  58  29  44  25 /   0   0   5  20
Reserve.........................  64  25  47  19 /   5   0  10  20
Glenwood........................  65  29  52  23 /   5   0  10  20
Chama...........................  54  21  39  17 /  40   0  50  60
Los Alamos......................  58  32  48  28 /  30   0  10  40
Pecos...........................  58  31  55  26 /  30   0   5  30
Cerro/Questa....................  55  26  46  22 /  50   0  20  50
Red River.......................  47  24  39  17 /  70   0  20  60
Angel Fire......................  52  19  43  19 /  70   0  20  40
Taos............................  59  23  49  21 /  40   0  10  40
Mora............................  57  27  55  23 /  50   0   5  30
Espanola........................  66  27  56  28 /  20   0  10  30
Santa Fe........................  58  30  52  27 /  30   0  10  40
Santa Fe Airport................  62  30  54  27 /  20   0   5  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  64  38  55  34 /  10   0   5  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  67  37  56  34 /  10   0   0  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  69  35  58  33 /  10   0   0  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  67  36  56  33 /  10   0   5  20
Belen...........................  69  32  60  32 /  20   0   0  10
Bernalillo......................  68  35  57  33 /  20   0   5  30
Bosque Farms....................  69  32  59  32 /  20   0   0  10
Corrales........................  68  35  57  33 /  10   0   5  20
Los Lunas.......................  68  33  59  33 /  20   0   0  10
Placitas........................  63  35  54  32 /  20   0   5  30
Rio Rancho......................  67  35  57  33 /  10   0   5  20
Socorro.........................  72  36  63  36 /  10   0   0   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  58  33  56  28 /  20   0   5  30
Tijeras.........................  61  34  53  30 /  20   0   5  20
Edgewood........................  61  30  60  28 /  10   0   0  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  63  25  61  27 /  10   0   0  20
Clines Corners..................  57  30  56  26 /  10   0   0  10
Mountainair.....................  61  32  59  28 /  20   0   0  10
Gran Quivira....................  61  32  58  27 /  20   0   0  10
Carrizozo.......................  63  40  58  30 /   5   0   0  10
Ruidoso.........................  56  40  55  27 /   5   0   0  10
Capulin.........................  53  30  57  26 /  60   0   0  40
Raton...........................  60  26  60  27 /  60   0   0  20
Springer........................  60  26  61  29 /  60   0   0  10
Las Vegas.......................  60  31  58  27 /  30   0   0  10
Clayton.........................  55  35  67  32 /  70   0   0  20
Roy.............................  59  32  63  31 /  60   0   0  10
Conchas.........................  67  37  70  37 /  50   0   0  10
Santa Rosa......................  66  36  65  35 /  20   0   0   5
Tucumcari.......................  65  38  71  37 /  60   0   0   5
Clovis..........................  68  40  72  36 /  30   0   0   5
Portales........................  69  38  74  36 /  20   0   0   5
Fort Sumner.....................  70  37  71  36 /  20   0   0   5
Roswell.........................  74  40  76  39 /   0   0   0   5
Picacho.........................  67  39  67  33 /   0   0   0   5
Elk.............................  65  39  66  30 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for
NMZ223>225-227>238.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM MST Monday for NMZ104-106-
109-123>126.

High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for
NMZ226-239-240.

Wind Advisory until 3 PM MST this afternoon for NMZ238>240.

&&

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...42

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
945 AM MST Sun Mar 2 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     Snow             2 NE Chacon             36.16N 105.34W
03/02/2025  M1.0 Inch        Mora               NM   Cocorahs

            Cocorahs station NM-MR-13 Chacon 2.1 ENE.

&&