Flash Flood Warning 207, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
126 PM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 124 PM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025

- There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms across
  northeast and portions of east central NM this afternoon and
  evening, with large hail and damaging winds being the primary
  threats.

- Flash flood threat increases today through the weekend in
  central and eastern New Mexico as storm coverage and intensity
  trends higher.

- An active Monsoon thunderstorm pattern will persist next week
  with a continued flash flood threat, especially on area burn
  scars.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 124 PM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Showers and thunderstorms have begun to initiate across the high
terrain this afternoon, with already a couple of strong to severe
storms forming. This activity has been well modeled, thinking back
to CAM runs yesterday at this time. This bodes well for the
confidence in development of numerous thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening across much of the eastern plains. A Marginal Risk for
severe thunderstorms continues across much of east central and
northeast NM, where SBCAPE values exceed 3000 J/kg and bulk shear
values bump up to 30-35kts. Primary hazards with any storm will be
large hail and damaging wind gusts. Heavy rainfall is also a hazard
with these storms, and the atmosphere is ripe for efficient rainfall
rates. The ABQ 18z sounding produced a PWAT of 1.13" well into the
90th percentile. Model forecast soundings show PWATs increasing up
to 1.5" across eastern NM, further showcasing the moist column of
air that resides across the region. Storm motion is likely to be
around 10-20mph to the east, which may be enough to move storms off
of one area before it dumps enough rain to produce flash flooding.
However, multiple rounds/training storms are very possible in this
environment, as well as storms getting stuck on remnant boundaries.
These factors would increase a flash flooding threat across much of
eastern NM, where a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall is placed.
HREF mean QPF shows areas of 1-2" across the TX bordering counties
(Union, Quay, Curry, Roosevelt). This remains below the general
flash flood guidance for the region, though instances of localized
flash flooding is very possible. Though with the initial isolated
nature expected this evening into tonight, have opted against a
Flash Flood Watch for that area. Storms are expected to completely
exit the area by midnight or so.

Saturday is appearing to have a higher potential for flash
flooding across the area, both on and off burn scars. For the
Ruidoso area, while models kept the storms off of the scars for
today (Friday), they have been painting initiation over the scars
themselves for Saturday, increasing the risk of burn scar flash
flooding. With that, a second Flash Flood Watch has been issued
for the area, though has a good chance of ending earlier than
Friday's given a low signal for any evening storms. For the HPCC
burn scar, there is moderate confidence in late afternoon storms
firing up in the area, but with not enough confidence and the
higher rainfall amounts that the scar can absorb, have opted
against a Watch this package and will let future shifts
contemplate. Off of the scars, in eastern NM, model guidance has
consistently painted an broken to organized band of thunderstorms
moving through the area, mainly I-40 southward, in the late hours
of Saturday night. PWAT values are forecast to remain near or
above 1.5" allowing for efficient rainfall rates to continue.
Forecast soundings also have shown the potential for a "long and
skinny" CAPE profile, which continues to promote heavy and
efficient rainfall. HREF mean rainfall for this system range
around 0.5-2" given the potential broken nature of it. Antecedent
wet soils from Friday's rainfall could exacerbate any flash
flooding that may occur with this heavy rain. Also, given this is
likely to occur overnight, folks should have multiple ways to
receive warnings. While currently less of a concern, a forward
propagating MCS could inherit strong to severe wind gusts, which
is another hazard for folks to take note of.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 124 PM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025

The high pressure system that has sat over southern NM for the
latter part of this week begins to shift westward, allowing for a
slight pattern shift in our thunderstorms. With a more northwesterly
flow, storm motions begin to take on a more southeasterly to
southerly component. With the potential for easterly surface flow,
this may work to increase shear across the area, allowing a few
strong to potentially severe storms to form. Burn scar flash
flooding also remains possible to likely, mainly across the Ruidoso
area as storms continue to fire up along the Sacramento Mountains. A
slight change from Saturday to Sunday is that, with the high
pressure moving westward, the moisture settled in eastern NM gets
siphoned into southern NM, greatly increasing the rain chances
across the southern third of the state. Daily thunderstorms
continue through much of next week as the high pressure rotates
around the Great Basin, though will likely be closer to standard
diurnal thunderstorms in a typical monsoon pattern. Models have
been consistent in shoving a backdoor cold front through the state
later next week, which would work to replenish moisture and
increase storm chances. Overall, a daily and active thunderstorm
pattern appears prone to continue through the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 124 PM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across the region
today, mainly Continental Divide eastward. Most TAF sites are under
PROB30s or TEMPOs based on expected surrounding shower and
thunderstorm activity, with higher confidence in sites along and
east of the central mountain chain. Storms are very likely to push
eastward across eastern NM late afternoon and into this evening.
Localized MVFR to short-lived IFR visibilities are possible in any
storm. A few storms may be strong to severe, producing large hail
and damaging wind gusts. Storm activity likely wanes and exits the
state by 06z. Lower confidence tonight in a low stratus deck causing
MFVR to IFR ceilings, but probabilities increase closer to the NM/TX
border throughout the night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 124 PM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025

No critical fire weather conditions are expected for the next
several days. Daily rounds of thunderstorms are likely across much
of the state, mainly east of the Continental Divide. These will very
likely leave large wetting footprints, with some locations
experiencing localized flash flooding. Burn scar flash flooding also
remains a concern, mainly in the Ruidoso area. Humidity recovery is
expected to remain good to excellent for the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  58  84  57  87 /   5   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  43  82  44  84 /  10  10   5  10
Cuba............................  51  81  52  80 /  20  10   0  20
Gallup..........................  52  84  51  85 /  10   5   0   5
El Morro........................  53  80  54  80 /  30  20   5  30
Grants..........................  53  84  53  83 /  30  20   5  40
Quemado.........................  54  82  54  82 /  30  30  10  50
Magdalena.......................  58  82  59  79 /  50  40  30  70
Datil...........................  53  80  53  77 /  40  50  20  70
Reserve.........................  53  89  53  88 /  30  50  10  60
Glenwood........................  58  92  59  90 /  20  50  20  70
Chama...........................  45  77  44  77 /  10  20  10  40
Los Alamos......................  56  78  56  76 /  30  20  10  60
Pecos...........................  53  80  53  75 /  40  30  50  60
Cerro/Questa....................  50  78  49  77 /  30  40  40  50
Red River.......................  43  68  41  66 /  30  50  50  60
Angel Fire......................  38  72  37  69 /  30  50  50  60
Taos............................  49  81  48  79 /  30  30  40  40
Mora............................  48  76  48  70 /  40  40  60  70
Espanola........................  56  86  56  84 /  30  10  20  40
Santa Fe........................  57  81  57  77 /  40  20  30  50
Santa Fe Airport................  55  84  56  81 /  30  10  20  40
Albuquerque Foothills...........  66  87  65  85 /  50  20  20  50
Albuquerque Heights.............  63  89  64  87 /  50  10  20  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  62  91  65  89 /  50  10  10  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  64  89  64  87 /  50  10  10  20
Belen...........................  61  90  62  87 /  50  20  20  30
Bernalillo......................  63  90  64  87 /  40  10  10  30
Bosque Farms....................  60  90  61  87 /  50  10  20  30
Corrales........................  63  90  64  88 /  50  10  10  30
Los Lunas.......................  62  90  64  87 /  50  10  20  30
Placitas........................  61  85  61  83 /  40  10  20  30
Rio Rancho......................  63  89  64  87 /  40  10  10  30
Socorro.........................  65  91  65  87 /  60  30  30  50
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  56  82  56  78 /  50  20  20  50
Tijeras.........................  58  83  59  80 /  50  20  20  50
Edgewood........................  54  83  55  80 /  50  20  30  40
Moriarty/Estancia...............  53  85  55  80 /  50  20  30  50
Clines Corners..................  55  79  54  72 /  50  30  40  50
Mountainair.....................  56  83  56  77 /  60  30  30  60
Gran Quivira....................  56  83  56  77 /  60  40  40  70
Carrizozo.......................  62  86  61  79 /  80  50  60  80
Ruidoso.........................  57  77  55  69 /  70  80  60  90
Capulin.........................  52  72  50  71 /  80  60  80  30
Raton...........................  52  76  51  75 /  50  70  70  40
Springer........................  54  80  52  77 /  40  50  70  40
Las Vegas.......................  52  78  52  72 /  50  40  70  60
Clayton.........................  59  78  57  78 /  80  30  70  10
Roy.............................  55  78  54  75 /  70  40  80  30
Conchas.........................  62  85  61  81 /  80  30  90  30
Santa Rosa......................  60  83  59  77 /  70  30  80  40
Tucumcari.......................  61  82  59  79 /  80  20  90  20
Clovis..........................  64  87  62  82 /  80  40  90  40
Portales........................  64  88  62  82 /  80  50  90  40
Fort Sumner.....................  63  88  62  81 /  70  30  90  30
Roswell.........................  68  92  66  83 /  70  50  80  50
Picacho.........................  61  85  60  77 /  70  70  70  80
Elk.............................  58  83  56  74 /  70  80  60  80

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ226.

Flood Watch Saturday afternoon for NMZ226.

&&

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...77

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