Flash Flood Warning 203, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
524 AM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 500 AM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025

- There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms across
  northeast and portions of east central NM this afternoon and
  evening, with large hail and damaging winds being the primary
  threats.

- Flash flood threat increases Friday through the weekend in
  central and eastern New Mexico as storm coverage and intensity
  trend higher.

- An active Monsoon thunderstorm pattern will persist next week
  with a continued flash flood threat, especially on area burn
  scars.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 1200 AM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025

00Z upper air analysis shows the Monsoon high parked over
southern NM at around 594dam at 500mb. PWATs are on the uptrend
thanks to Pacific moisture rotating east around the Monsoon high
circulation and a weak backdoor front, currently making westward
progress across eastern NM. The increase in PWATs to above normal
will bring an uptick in shower and thunderstorm coverage today,
especially along/east of the central mountain chain where the
backdoor front will help with forcing, shear and instability
given dewpoint temperatures in the low to mid 60s behind the
boundary. The SPC has outlooked northeast and much of east central
NM for a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms today and this
matches well with the latest CAMs. Timing of severe thunderstorms
across the eastern plains will be 4-9PM and the primary threats
will be large hail and damaging winds. A Flash Flood Watch remains
in effect for the Ruidoso area today, but the latest CAMs all
show convective initiation east of the burn scars with motion
toward the east. That said, the ingredients for locally heavy
rainfall and potential flash flooding in the Ruidoso area are all
in place for today. The Monsoon high is forecast to weaken some
tonight into Saturday and begin to drift northwest into AZ.
Another backdoor front is forecast to move into northeast NM
Saturday, which will help to force convection near the TX border
across the northeast and east central plains, where a few storms
will likely become strong to severe and produce locally heavy
rainfall. Another Flash Flood Watch will likely be required for
the Ruidoso area on Saturday given the high PWAT atmosphere and
slow storm motion, but portions of the eastern plains may need to
be included as well given the presence of a boundary to focus deep
convection.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 1200 AM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Convection will persist through Saturday evening across the east
central and southeast plains, along with a severe thunderstorm and
flash flood threat. The combination of the backdoor front and
thunderstorm outflow is modeled to progress west to near the
Continental Divide Saturday night, setting the stage for a more
active day across central NM on Sunday with the potential for more
locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding. By Mon/Tue, the upper
high will be centered over AZ/UT with a highly amplified ridge
that extends north through the Great Basin into British Columbia
as a troughing pattern becomes entrenched across the central and
eastern US. This synoptic pattern will change steering flow
across our area such that some locales that missed-out on the
weekend rains may benefit, but drier air aloft moving in will
bring a downtrend in PWATs and storm coverage. However, a more
notable backdoor front will move in Wednesday night and recharge
moisture across the area, bringing improved chances for showers
and storms going into Thu/Fri. Daytime temperatures will trend
down below normal areawide next week due to lower pressure heights
the aforementioned backdoor cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 500 AM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Multiple cloud layers will persist across much of the area with
increasing thunderstorm probabilities this afternoon and evening,
especially across eastern NM. Fairly widespread low stratus
across eastern NM will bring MVFR and potentially short-lived IFR
cigs to KLVS, KTCC and possibly KROW through this morning. MVFR
conditions are possible in sct/num thunderstorms today as well,
especially along/east of the central mountain chain.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1200 AM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least
the next seven days as an active Monsoon thunderstorm pattern
persists. Good chances for wetting storms will favor areas
along/east of the central mountain chain through the weekend.
Humidity and chances for wetting rain will trend up for much of
western NM next week as moisture advances further north and west
across the state. Humidity recovery will generally be good to
excellent through much of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  85  58  86  57 /  20   5   0   0
Dulce...........................  84  43  83  44 /  40  10  20   5
Cuba............................  83  51  81  51 /  50  20  10   5
Gallup..........................  84  52  84  50 /  30  10   5   0
El Morro........................  82  54  81  54 /  60  20  30  10
Grants..........................  85  54  84  54 /  60  20  30  10
Quemado.........................  82  54  81  54 /  70  20  40  20
Magdalena.......................  85  59  82  59 /  80  40  50  30
Datil...........................  82  54  81  54 /  80  30  50  30
Reserve.........................  90  54  89  53 /  80  20  50  20
Glenwood........................  95  59  93  59 /  60  20  50  20
Chama...........................  77  45  78  44 /  50  10  40  10
Los Alamos......................  80  58  79  56 /  60  20  30  20
Pecos...........................  81  54  80  53 /  60  30  40  50
Cerro/Questa....................  79  50  78  49 /  70  30  60  50
Red River.......................  69  43  68  42 /  80  30  70  50
Angel Fire......................  74  42  73  43 /  80  30  60  50
Taos............................  82  49  81  49 /  60  20  40  40
Mora............................  76  48  76  48 /  70  40  60  60
Espanola........................  87  56  86  56 /  50  20  20  30
Santa Fe........................  82  58  81  58 /  50  30  30  40
Santa Fe Airport................  86  56  85  56 /  50  30  20  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  90  66  88  66 /  50  30  30  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  92  64  89  64 /  50  30  20  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  94  63  91  64 /  50  30  20  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  92  65  89  64 /  50  30  10  20
Belen...........................  94  62  91  61 /  50  40  20  20
Bernalillo......................  93  63  90  63 /  50  30  20  20
Bosque Farms....................  93  61  90  61 /  50  40  20  20
Corrales........................  93  63  91  64 /  50  30  20  20
Los Lunas.......................  93  62  90  62 /  50  40  20  20
Placitas........................  87  62  86  61 /  50  30  20  20
Rio Rancho......................  92  64  89  63 /  50  30  20  20
Socorro.........................  95  65  92  65 /  60  50  30  40
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  84  57  82  56 /  60  30  30  30
Tijeras.........................  85  59  83  59 /  60  40  30  30
Edgewood........................  84  54  84  55 /  50  40  30  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  85  52  85  54 /  60  40  30  40
Clines Corners..................  79  55  78  54 /  60  40  40  50
Mountainair.....................  84  56  84  56 /  70  50  40  40
Gran Quivira....................  84  57  84  56 /  70  60  50  50
Carrizozo.......................  89  63  86  61 /  70  60  60  60
Ruidoso.........................  76  57  77  56 /  80  60  80  70
Capulin.........................  74  53  71  50 /  80  80  70  80
Raton...........................  80  52  76  50 /  80  60  70  70
Springer........................  80  53  79  52 /  70  50  60  70
Las Vegas.......................  77  52  77  51 /  70  50  60  70
Clayton.........................  79  59  78  57 /  60  90  40  70
Roy.............................  76  56  78  55 /  60  70  50  80
Conchas.........................  84  62  84  61 /  50  70  40  90
Santa Rosa......................  85  60  83  59 /  60  60  50  80
Tucumcari.......................  85  60  81  58 /  30  80  30  90
Clovis..........................  83  64  86  62 /  30  70  40  90
Portales........................  85  64  87  63 /  40  70  50  90
Fort Sumner.....................  87  64  86  62 /  40  70  40  80
Roswell.........................  92  67  91  66 /  30  70  50  80
Picacho.........................  84  62  85  60 /  70  60  70  70
Elk.............................  81  58  82  56 /  70  60  80  70

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for NMZ226.

&&

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11

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