Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
121 PM MST Sun Jun 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Active monsoon pattern for the next 7 days will bring
daily chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some storms will
generate strong winds and locally heavy rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery this afternoon is
showing an MCV near Rocky Point with generally partly to mostly
cloudy skies across much of southeast Arizona. The clouds held
on a bit more than expected through the midday hours so that has
certainly slowed the warming and destabilization process. Where
skies have cleared out for sufficient time, we're seeing
thunderstorms from in the last hour across portions of
Graham/Greenlee/Cochise Counties. Another mid level disturbance is
quickly approaching from the east-southeast and that will help aid
in deeper layer lift this afternoon into the evening hours. MLCAPE
values will increase to around 1000-1500 J/KG as CIN diminishes over
the next hour or two. This will be enough to result in convective
development and the latest HRRR and UofA WRF model runs are in
agreement on this. Given the anomalously high moisture levels, flash
flooding will be a concern along with strong and gusty outflow winds
as DCAPE values range from about 800-1200 J/KG across our forecast
area. These gusty outflow winds may produce a large area of blowing
dust to the NW of Tucson. A Blowing Dust Advisory is in place for
this and any short fuse intense dust storms will be covered with
Dust Storm Warnings if needed. Convective activity may persist well
into the evening hours, especially from Tucson westward.

Abundant moisture remains in place for Monday, though just how much
activity we see will partially be dependent on what takes place
today/tonight. The flow does become a bit more southwesterly on
Monday. The moisture will remain with us through about Wednesday
with PWAT values ranging from about 1.4 inches to 1.7 inches across
the forecast area to keep the active period ongoing. Thereafter,
the ensembles are showing the mid/upper high reconsolidating to our
north/northwest. This will change the flow to become more
northeasterly. However, some drier air will also start filtering in
from the north and keep the best chances for daily showers and
thunderstorms from Tucson south and eastward.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 02/00Z.
SCT-BKN clouds at 8-12k ft AGL thru the fcst period. Scattered-
numerous SHRA/TSRA 30/20Z-01-04Z, then becoming isolated -SHRA/-TSRA
overnight. Another round of SCT -SHRA/-TSRA aft 01/18Z thru the end
of the fcst period. Expect brief MVFR conds nr storms. SFC winds 10
kts or less with the occasional afternoon gusts, except stronger due
to gusty outflows from storms. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Relatively deep moisture will stick around through
the forecast period. Scattered ton numerous showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight. The upcoming week will see
daily chances of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.
Strong and erratic gusty winds of 40 mph or higher can be expected
with any storm  development, along with locally brief heavy
rainfall. Outside of  thunderstorm winds, 20-foot winds will
generally be 15 mph or less each  afternoon with the occasional gust
of 20 mph. Min RHs will generally be around 20% in the valleys and
30s in the mountains with good overnight recoveries.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 Blowing Dust Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 10 PM MST this
  evening for AZZ502-504>506.

 Flood Watch from this afternoon through this evening for
  AZZ502>507-513>515.

&&

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