Flash Flood Warning 7, NWS Tucson, AZ

171 
WGUS75 KTWC 302206
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
306 PM MST Sun Jun 30 2024

AZC003-009-010015-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0007.000000T0000Z-240701T0015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cochise AZ-Graham AZ-
306 PM MST Sun Jun 30 2024

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM MST THIS 
AFTERNOON FOR EASTERN COCHISE AND SOUTHEASTERN GRAHAM COUNTIES...

At 306 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 3 inches of rain have 
fallen. An automated rain gauge at Rucker Canyon has recorded 2.32 
inches of rain. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin 
shortly.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
         urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Bowie, Chiricahua National Monument, Sunizona and Rucker Canyon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are 
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded 
roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 3232 10940 3188 10924 3175 10920 3155 10933
      3154 10954 3173 10965 3201 10971 3225 10976
      3244 10964

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

GEL

665 
WGUS75 KTWC 302322
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
422 PM MST Sun Jun 30 2024

AZC003-009-010015-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0007.000000T0000Z-240701T0015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cochise AZ-Graham AZ-
422 PM MST Sun Jun 30 2024

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM MST THIS 
AFTERNOON FOR EASTERN COCHISE AND SOUTHEASTERN GRAHAM COUNTIES...

At 422 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms produced heavy 
rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 3 inches of rain have 
fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
         urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Bowie, Chiricahua National Monument, Sunizona and Rucker Canyon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 3232 10940 3188 10924 3175 10920 3155 10933
      3154 10954 3173 10965 3201 10971 3225 10976
      3244 10964

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

EDWARDS

470 
WGUS75 KTWC 010009
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
509 PM MST Sun Jun 30 2024

AZC003-009-010019-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0007.000000T0000Z-240701T0015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cochise AZ-Graham AZ-
509 PM MST Sun Jun 30 2024

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 515 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
EASTERN COCHISE AND SOUTHEASTERN GRAHAM COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3232 10940 3188 10924 3175 10920 3155 10933
      3154 10954 3173 10965 3201 10971 3225 10976
      3244 10964

$$

EDWARDS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
121 PM MST Sun Jun 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Active monsoon pattern for the next 7 days will bring
daily chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some storms will
generate strong winds and locally heavy rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery this afternoon is
showing an MCV near Rocky Point with generally partly to mostly
cloudy skies across much of southeast Arizona. The clouds held
on a bit more than expected through the midday hours so that has
certainly slowed the warming and destabilization process. Where
skies have cleared out for sufficient time, we're seeing
thunderstorms from in the last hour across portions of
Graham/Greenlee/Cochise Counties. Another mid level disturbance is
quickly approaching from the east-southeast and that will help aid
in deeper layer lift this afternoon into the evening hours. MLCAPE
values will increase to around 1000-1500 J/KG as CIN diminishes over
the next hour or two. This will be enough to result in convective
development and the latest HRRR and UofA WRF model runs are in
agreement on this. Given the anomalously high moisture levels, flash
flooding will be a concern along with strong and gusty outflow winds
as DCAPE values range from about 800-1200 J/KG across our forecast
area. These gusty outflow winds may produce a large area of blowing
dust to the NW of Tucson. A Blowing Dust Advisory is in place for
this and any short fuse intense dust storms will be covered with
Dust Storm Warnings if needed. Convective activity may persist well
into the evening hours, especially from Tucson westward.

Abundant moisture remains in place for Monday, though just how much
activity we see will partially be dependent on what takes place
today/tonight. The flow does become a bit more southwesterly on
Monday. The moisture will remain with us through about Wednesday
with PWAT values ranging from about 1.4 inches to 1.7 inches across
the forecast area to keep the active period ongoing. Thereafter,
the ensembles are showing the mid/upper high reconsolidating to our
north/northwest. This will change the flow to become more
northeasterly. However, some drier air will also start filtering in
from the north and keep the best chances for daily showers and
thunderstorms from Tucson south and eastward.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 02/00Z.
SCT-BKN clouds at 8-12k ft AGL thru the fcst period. Scattered-
numerous SHRA/TSRA 30/20Z-01-04Z, then becoming isolated -SHRA/-TSRA
overnight. Another round of SCT -SHRA/-TSRA aft 01/18Z thru the end
of the fcst period. Expect brief MVFR conds nr storms. SFC winds 10
kts or less with the occasional afternoon gusts, except stronger due
to gusty outflows from storms. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Relatively deep moisture will stick around through
the forecast period. Scattered ton numerous showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight. The upcoming week will see
daily chances of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.
Strong and erratic gusty winds of 40 mph or higher can be expected
with any storm  development, along with locally brief heavy
rainfall. Outside of  thunderstorm winds, 20-foot winds will
generally be 15 mph or less each  afternoon with the occasional gust
of 20 mph. Min RHs will generally be around 20% in the valleys and
30s in the mountains with good overnight recoveries.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 Blowing Dust Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 10 PM MST this
  evening for AZZ502-504>506.

 Flood Watch from this afternoon through this evening for
  AZZ502>507-513>515.

&&

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson