Flash Flood Warning 86, NWS Tucson, AZ

838 
WGUS75 KTWC 130045
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
545 PM MST Mon Aug 12 2024

AZC019-130215-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0086.000000T0000Z-240813T0215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pima AZ-
545 PM MST Mon Aug 12 2024

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM MST THIS 
EVENING FOR CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...

At 545 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms which produced 
heavy rain across the warned area have ended. Between 1.5 and 2 
inches of rain have fallen. Flooding impacts will continue, but no 
additional rainfall is expected. Flash flooding is ongoing or 
expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
         urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  San Isidro, South Comobabi, Comobabi and Santa Rosa Ranch.

This includes Route 86 between mile markers 122 and 130.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

Remain alert for flooding even in locations not receiving rain. 
Washes, streams, and rivers can become raging killer currents in a 
matter of minutes, even from distant rainfall.

&&

LAT...LON 3210 11185 3214 11181 3215 11176 3214 11169
      3210 11165 3203 11164 3194 11167 3194 11175
      3198 11181 3201 11184 3204 11186

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

GEL

291 
WGUS75 KTWC 130214
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
714 PM MST Mon Aug 12 2024

AZC019-130224-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0086.000000T0000Z-240813T0215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pima AZ-
714 PM MST Mon Aug 12 2024

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 715 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR 
CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...

Flood waters have receded. The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no 
longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed remaining 
road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3210 11185 3214 11181 3215 11176 3214 11169
      3210 11165 3203 11164 3194 11167 3194 11175
      3198 11181 3201 11184 3204 11186

$$

GEL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
123 PM MST Mon Aug 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected through this afternoon and
evening with the potential for heavy rain and severe wind gusts.
Additional thunderstorms are likely Tuesday, with lower chances
Wednesday and Thursday. High temperatures will rise by mid-week,
though remain within a few degrees of normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The overall weather pattern is being driven by an upper high over
the Southern Plains, and small scale circulation over northern
Baja California. Southern Arizona is under moist southerly flow
driven by these circulations. The atmosphere remains very moist,
elucidated by this morning's weather sounding that shows over 1.5
inches of precipitable water. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
have started developing as of this writing. With a fair bit of
instability in the atmosphere along with moisture, both severe
winds and flash flooding will be threats. There is a bit of storm
motion to these storms, and with a bit of wind shear, some of
these storms may be able to sustain themselves longer than the
usual pulse storms. Considering all threats and probabilities,
today appears to be a "moderate risk" day...or 3 on a scale of 1
to 5 of potential monsoon impacts.

Tuesday's weather will likely depend somewhat on how the
convection evolves today. That being said, the axis of moisture
does shift eastward slightly on Tuesday, and the potential areas
of impact should follow.

An upper high centered over the eastern Pacific should build
overhead on Wednesday and Thursday. This will effectively cut off
the southerly moisture tap from the Sierra Madres, and enhance
subsidence across the region. This should result in a couple days
of drier and hotter weather. At this stage, it looks like
temperatures should remain well below the High HeatRisk category
that would prompt Excessive Heat consideration.

The upper ridge quickly slides eastward back to southcentral US
late this week. This could result in an uptick in thunderstorm
activity Friday onward.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 13/12Z.
Scattered to broken clouds with 7k to 10k with scattered TSRA
through around 13/03Z, with continued -SHRA possible overnight.
Visibility restrictions, gusts to 45 kts, heavy rain, and mountain
obscurations likely with any thunderstorm this afternoon and
evening. Wind outside of thunderstorms will be less than 12 kts
and favor a west to southwesterly direction. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Chances for thunderstorms continue this afternoon and evening as
well as Tuesday. A downturn in thunderstorm chances is likely
Wednesday and Thursday, with moisture and thunderstorms chances
returning by the weekend. Minimum relative humidity values 25 to
40 percent in the valleys through mid-week. Outside of
thunderstorm outflow winds, 20-foot winds will generally be 15 mph
or less, with afternoon/early evening gusts to 20-25 mph and
light winds overnight.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Public...Dang
Aviation...Dang
Fire Weather....Dang

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