Flash Flood Warning 84, NWS Tucson, AZ

066 
WGUS75 KTWC 122245
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
345 PM MST Mon Aug 12 2024

AZC003-130000-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0084.000000T0000Z-240813T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cochise AZ-
345 PM MST Mon Aug 12 2024

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS 
AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWESTERN COCHISE COUNTY...

At 345 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 2.5 inches of rain have 
fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are possible in 
the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin 
shortly due to more rainfall or drainage from the Huachuca Mountains.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
         urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Sierra Vista, Hereford, Fort Huachuca and Ramsey Canyon Preserve.

This includes the following highways...
	Route 90 between mile markers 316 and 319.
	Route 92 between mile markers 322 and 329.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
  San Pedro River, Babocomari River and Slaughter House Wash.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3156 11026 3147 11022 3143 11025 3142 11030
      3146 11035 3150 11038 3155 11040 3158 11037
      3160 11033

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

KM

285 
WGUS75 KTWC 122356
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
456 PM MST Mon Aug 12 2024

AZC003-130006-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0084.000000T0000Z-240813T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cochise AZ-
456 PM MST Mon Aug 12 2024

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
SOUTHWESTERN COCHISE COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. There may still be brief showers for the 
next few hours. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a significant 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3156 11026 3147 11022 3143 11025 3142 11030
      3146 11035 3150 11038 3155 11040 3158 11037
      3160 11033

$$

KM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
123 PM MST Mon Aug 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected through this afternoon and
evening with the potential for heavy rain and severe wind gusts.
Additional thunderstorms are likely Tuesday, with lower chances
Wednesday and Thursday. High temperatures will rise by mid-week,
though remain within a few degrees of normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The overall weather pattern is being driven by an upper high over
the Southern Plains, and small scale circulation over northern
Baja California. Southern Arizona is under moist southerly flow
driven by these circulations. The atmosphere remains very moist,
elucidated by this morning's weather sounding that shows over 1.5
inches of precipitable water. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
have started developing as of this writing. With a fair bit of
instability in the atmosphere along with moisture, both severe
winds and flash flooding will be threats. There is a bit of storm
motion to these storms, and with a bit of wind shear, some of
these storms may be able to sustain themselves longer than the
usual pulse storms. Considering all threats and probabilities,
today appears to be a "moderate risk" day...or 3 on a scale of 1
to 5 of potential monsoon impacts.

Tuesday's weather will likely depend somewhat on how the
convection evolves today. That being said, the axis of moisture
does shift eastward slightly on Tuesday, and the potential areas
of impact should follow.

An upper high centered over the eastern Pacific should build
overhead on Wednesday and Thursday. This will effectively cut off
the southerly moisture tap from the Sierra Madres, and enhance
subsidence across the region. This should result in a couple days
of drier and hotter weather. At this stage, it looks like
temperatures should remain well below the High HeatRisk category
that would prompt Excessive Heat consideration.

The upper ridge quickly slides eastward back to southcentral US
late this week. This could result in an uptick in thunderstorm
activity Friday onward.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 13/12Z.
Scattered to broken clouds with 7k to 10k with scattered TSRA
through around 13/03Z, with continued -SHRA possible overnight.
Visibility restrictions, gusts to 45 kts, heavy rain, and mountain
obscurations likely with any thunderstorm this afternoon and
evening. Wind outside of thunderstorms will be less than 12 kts
and favor a west to southwesterly direction. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Chances for thunderstorms continue this afternoon and evening as
well as Tuesday. A downturn in thunderstorm chances is likely
Wednesday and Thursday, with moisture and thunderstorms chances
returning by the weekend. Minimum relative humidity values 25 to
40 percent in the valleys through mid-week. Outside of
thunderstorm outflow winds, 20-foot winds will generally be 15 mph
or less, with afternoon/early evening gusts to 20-25 mph and
light winds overnight.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Public...Dang
Aviation...Dang
Fire Weather....Dang

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