Flash Flood Warning 66, NWS Tucson, AZ

714 
WGUS75 KTWC 302059
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
159 PM MST Tue Jul 30 2024

AZC019-302300-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0066.000000T0000Z-240730T2300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pima AZ-
159 PM MST Tue Jul 30 2024

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM MST THIS 
AFTERNOON FOR NORTHWESTERN PIMA COUNTY...

At 159 PM MST, trained weather spotters reported thunderstorms 
producing heavy rain in Ajo. Up to 1 inch of rain has fallen. Flash 
flooding is already occurring.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Trained spotters reported.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
         urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Ajo.

This includes the following Flash Flood Prone Locations...
	Gibson Wash in Ajo.

This includes Route 85 between mile markers 37 and 44.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
  Tenmile Wash, Sikort Chuapo Wash, Rio Cornez Wash and Gibson 
  Arroyo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Remain alert for flooding even in locations not receiving rain. 
Washes, streams, and rivers can become raging killer currents in a 
matter of minutes, even from distant rainfall.

&&

LAT...LON 3246 11285 3244 11281 3242 11280 3238 11282
      3235 11284 3235 11291 3239 11290 3244 11288

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

GEL

783 
WGUS75 KTWC 302154
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
254 PM MST Tue Jul 30 2024

AZC019-302204-
/O.CAN.KTWC.FF.W.0066.000000T0000Z-240730T2300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pima AZ-
254 PM MST Tue Jul 30 2024

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR NORTHWESTERN PIMA COUNTY...

Flood waters have receded. The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no 
longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed remaining 
road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3246 11285 3244 11281 3242 11280 3238 11282
      3235 11284 3235 11291 3239 11290 3244 11288

$$

GEL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
954 AM MST Tue Jul 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Daily chances for thunderstorms continue into next week. Some
storms will generate heavy rain and strong gusty winds.
Temperatures will heat up a few degrees late in the week.

&&

.UPDATE...Lingering showers are moving out of the region from
early this morning convection. This was caused by a decaying
complex in northern Mexico and still moving westward as of this
writing. This disturbance brings today a more down day for
thunderstorm activity. The 12Z upper sounding shows that area is
worked over as the proper ingredients for thunderstorms are
lacking. The 12z HREF confirms this downward trend for the rest of
the day. But there is still at least 25-40 percent chances for
thunderstorms and showers along the southern border because of
better atmosphere and terrain dynamics. Tomorrow appears to be a
little more active day as the high pressure moves a bit.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 201 AM MST Tue Jul 30 2024/
We're seeing broad high pressure across southern tier states,
with the high center consolidated east of the area. The resulting
southerly flow is rather weak, but is open to moisture incursions
from the south. Available moisture remains seasonably deep, with
surface dewpoints in the 60s and precipitable water values ranging
from about 1.2 inches east to 1.8 inches west. There's a sharp
moisture gradient with moisture falling off rapidly into southern
CA and northern AZ. A decaying complex drifting up from Mexico is
bringing plenty of debris cloud this morning with embedded
showers.

A weak impulse near central Baja has been helping to enhance and
organize storms across Sonora. This feature will move slowly
northwest toward southern CA as high pressure rebuilds through
the intermountain west over the next 72 hours. We'll keep a
seasonably solid daily chance of afternoon and evening
thunderstorms as this happens, with a potential up period
Wednesday if that impulse has a more dominant northerly component
to it's northwesterly trajectory.

Ensemble means continue to have the high center reconsolidating
to our north later in the week with an enhanced easterly flow
before it migrates slowly toward the four corners region early
next week. Keeping an eye out for easterly wave activity under
that high. Eastern Pacific tropics are getting more active; we'll
see if any of that comes into play the first half of August.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 31/18Z.
FEW-SCT clouds at or around 12k ft AGL for the rest of the day. Scattered
TSRA after 30/20Z until 31/02Z with possible -SHRA in the
overnight period, mainly along the International Border. Very
heavy rainfall with isolated strong wind gusts to near 45 kts
expected with any thunderstorm this afternoon. Otherwise winds
generally westerly to northwesterly under 12kts this afternoon and
light and variable in the overnight period. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Elevated moisture will continue with scattered afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms. Each day has the threat of
heavy rain, localized flash flooding and strong gusty outflow
winds. Outside of thunderstorms, 20-foot winds will generally be
15 mph or less, with afternoon/early evening gusts to 20-25 mph
and light winds overnight.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Update...Strongman

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
909 AM MST Tue Jul 30 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1008 PM     Flash Flood      11 W Bisbee             31.40N 110.10W
07/29/2024                   Cochise            AZ   Public

            Green Bush Wash flowing over roads and
            private properties. Public also reported
            approximately 1-3 inches of water flowing
            over Highway 92.

&&

KJS