Flash Flood Warning 64, NWS Tucson, AZ

902 
WGUS75 KTWC 300312
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
812 PM MST Mon Jul 29 2024

AZC003-300415-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0064.000000T0000Z-240730T0415Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cochise AZ-
812 PM MST Mon Jul 29 2024

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM MST THIS 
EVENING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY...

At 812 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 3 inches of rain have 
fallen. Additional rainfall amounts up to 0.5 inches are possible in 
the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin 
shortly.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
         urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Sierra Vista, Bisbee, Hereford, Naco and Palominas.

This includes the following highways...
	Route 90 between mile markers 331 and 336.
	Route 80 between mile markers 328 and 347.
	Route 92 between mile markers 339 and 355.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 3157 11010 3162 10995 3160 10979 3145 10983
      3133 10990 3133 10993 3133 11000 3133 11012
      3141 11016

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

GEL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
148 PM MST Mon Jul 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Daily chances for thunderstorms continue this week. Heavy rainfall
may cause localized flash flooding. Isolated strong wind gusts
will also be possible. High temperatures should rise a few degrees
by late this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Isolated to scattered convection is expected to develop this
afternoon, with greater coverage likelier further south. RAP
guidance indicates richer low level moisture remains in areas
closer to the International Border with higher mixing ratio values
boosting instability across these areas. This is where coverage of
convection today will also be greatest, with the potential for
very heavy rainfall rates. Convective layer wind under 10 knots
will lead to very slow moving thunderstorms again, while the
seasonably moist atmosphere should lead to the very heavy
rainfall rates. While coverage will decrease this evening with
sunset, convective chances may linger through the night as a mid
level low approaches from the Gulf of California. Guidance
indicates an additional draw of mid-level moisture from this low
into southeastern Arizona, which along with the added ascent may
produce additional showers and thunderstorms even through Tuesday
morning.

By Tuesday afternoon, southeastern Arizona is forecast to be on
the wrong side of an impulse ejected through this closed low,
which should create a "lower" grade monsoon day. Continued active
flow from the lingering low however may produce additional
convection overnight into early Wednesday. At this point forecast
slight chances past midnight Tuesday night were kept to Santa Cruz
and Cochise counties, but these may need to be expanded.

Daily chances for thunderstorms continue through the forecast
period this week. The other part of the story will be the building
of a western CONUS ridge, which will warm up high temperatures
across the region. This should bring high temperatures 5 to 7
degrees above normal with moderate Heat Risk levels.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 31/00Z.

Isolated to scattered TSRA through 30/02Z. Very heavy rainfall
with isolated strong wind gusts to near 45 kts expected with any
thunderstorm today. An isolated shower can't be ruled out tonight
or early Tuesday morning as well. Otherwise winds generally light
this morning and under 12kts this afternoon. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Elevated moisture will continue with scattered afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms. Each day has the threat of
heavy rain, localized flash flooding and strong gusty outflow
winds. Away from thunderstorms, 20-foot winds will generally be 15
mph or less, with afternoon/early evening gusts to 20-25 mph and
light winds overnight. As high pressure builds late this week,
high temperatures should rise a bit and minimum relative
humidities should fall by a few percentage points.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Public...Edwards
Aviation...Edwards
Fire Weather....Edwards

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
601 PM MST Mon Jul 29 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0543 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     8 NNW Pirtleville       31.47N 109.60W
07/29/2024  M56 MPH          Cochise            AZ   ASOS

            KDUG ASOS reported 56 mph wind gust.

&&

JVT