Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
147 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of this afternoon )
Issued at 132 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

A surface boundary is slowly working its way south across far
southeast OK. Thunderstorms, any of which could become severe,
will continue to develop at times through the remainder of the day
near and north of this boundary. All severe hazards will be
possible near the boundary, with hail being the primary hazard
north of the boundary. North of I-40, elevated storms may also
pop up at times. The severe threat will be lower, but not zero,
with marginally severe hail possible in any stronger storms. Areas
of heavy rainfall will occur with any storms, so the Flood Watch
for southeast OK and parts of west-central AR will continue
through the afternoon to account for this threat.

Overnight, scattered showers and storms will continue to develop at
times, especially for southeast OK and northwest AR. But
confidence is low on exact timing and strength as CAM guidance has
been inconsistent. The overall severe threat may trend down
somewhat tonight, but isolated severe storms are still possible.
Lows will range from the upper 50s to mid 60s most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

The same general pattern will remain locked in through Saturday with
a deep trough across the northwest and a ridge in the southeast. As
shortwaves periodically rotate through they will bring lift and
enhanced wind shear over an exceptionally moist and unstable lower
atmosphere.

One such shortwave will move through Thursday. It is unclear whether
there will be sufficient low level convergence and lift to support
convective initiation, but the upper levels show good divergence as
the area will be in the left exit region of a jet. CAM guidance is
uncertain on timing and intensity of convection, but scattered
thunderstorms will likely develop. A few of the storms will become
severe with wind and hail being the more likely threats, though an
isolated tornado may also occur. A weak boundary moves through
Friday morning, and storms should continue at times through then.
Presumably storm coverage will decrease somewhat behind the
boundary, but with plenty of moisture and instability still in
place, storm activity can't be ruled out. The best chance for
storms Friday will be over the higher terrain of eastern OK and
northwest AR. Highs will be below normal Thursday, generally in
the upper 70s to lower 80s, increasing to the low to mid 80s
Thursday.

A stronger shortwave and associated surface cold front will move in
Saturday. Overall this looks to be the most likely day for
widespread thunderstorms and severe weather within the forecast
period. The environment will support all severe hazards within
the stronger storms. Ridging builds in west of the area Sunday
into early next week. With decent northwest flow and plentiful low
level moisture and instability, the storm chance will not be
zero, though presumably the severe weather threat should be lower
than this week. Normally we see increase nocturnal MCS activity in
this type of pattern, which is also increasingly common heading
into June, so bumped up NBM pops a bit each day to mentionable to
account for this possibility.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Ongoing scattered storms will continue to periodically impact
terminals through the afternoon with low VFR to MVFR ceilings at
most times. Convective coverage should wane this evening with low
clouds and/or areas of fog developing late tonight. Flight
conditions improve mid to late morning with additional storms
possible just beyond this forecast time frame.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  81  68  84 /  30  30  40  20
FSM   67  84  69  87 /  70  50  60  20
MLC   65  83  68  86 /  60  60  40  20
BVO   59  80  64  82 /  20  30  40  20
FYV   63  82  65  83 /  70  60  60  30
BYV   62  81  65  83 /  70  40  50  30
MKO   65  80  67  84 /  50  50  50  20
MIO   61  81  66  80 /  40  30  50  30
F10   64  80  67  85 /  50  60  40  20
HHW   66  82  68  87 /  80  50  50  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for OKZ049-053-072>076.

AR...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
109 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-231030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
109 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...South of Interstate 44.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Primarily southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Scattered thunderstorms will continue this afternoon and evening
with periodic severe storms possible with large hail the primary
hazard. An isolated tornado is also possible primarily far
southeast Oklahoma. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to wane
this evening before storm chances increase either late tonight
or during the day Thursday. A risk of severe weather will
accompany any storms that do redevelop.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
THURSDAY through SATURDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential.
SUNDAY and MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
TUESDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm chances will continue Thursday through Saturday
along with a continued risk of severe weather. Additional areas
of heavy rainfall will contribute to an increasing flood potential.
Later forecasts will continue to refine the severe weather
timing and potential.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
117 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0532 PM     Tornado          2 NE Verdigris          36.25N 95.67W
05/21/2024                   Rogers             OK   NWS Storm Survey

            Evidence of EF-1 tornado damage in the area
            of highway 66 and 8th street in Verdigris.
            Damage path continues east and west of this
            point.

&&

JDS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
147 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

OKZ049-053-221915-
Choctaw OK-Pushmataha OK-
147 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WESTERN PUSHMATAHA AND
NORTHWESTERN CHOCTAW COUNTIES THROUGH 215 PM CDT...

At 147 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a cluster of strong
thunderstorms 11 miles north of Boswell, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Antlers...                        Rattan...
Snow...                           Moyers...
Kosoma...                         Kellond...
Dunbar...                         Eubanks...
Darwin...                         Dela...
Finley...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 PM CDT for
southeastern Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3412 9594 3415 9596 3416 9598 3416 9578
      3447 9578 3457 9549 3422 9530 3403 9594
TIME...MOT...LOC 1847Z 241DEG 41KT 3419 9583

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Mejia

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
204 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0131 PM     Hail             Clayton                 34.59N 95.35W
05/22/2024  E2.00 Inch       Pushmataha         OK   Postal Employee

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
208 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

OKZ053-221945-
Choctaw OK-
208 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL CHOCTAW COUNTY THROUGH
245 PM CDT...

At 208 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 9 miles
west of Pat Mayse Lake, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Hugo...                           Soper...
Goodland...                       Arthur City...
Grant...                          Ord...
Fallon...                         Unger...
Gay...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 PM CDT for
southeastern Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3387 9546 3389 9546 3387 9550 3389 9551
      3388 9554 3393 9556 3394 9560 3391 9564
      3391 9567 3388 9570 3390 9575 3387 9577
      3387 9578 3388 9584 3391 9588 3393 9592
      3414 9578 3396 9531 3387 9539
TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 229DEG 22KT 3388 9575

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Mejia