Severe Thunderstorm Warning 276, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1053 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1051 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Ongoing storms are aligned along and north of a cold front which
is make slow but steady progress southward through SE OK and west
central AR. This trend will continue through the day with the
focus for strongest storms gradually shifting southward with time.
The severe threat will decrease from north to south across the
forecast area and likely be south of the Red River by late
afternoon. Updated forecast has adjust for precip trends in the
near term and incorporated observed trends.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 401 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Shower and storm chances will be greatest tonight across southeast
Oklahoma, but if convection today forces the surface boundary too
far south, coverage and intensity of storms tonight may end up
being less than forecast. The frontal boundary starts to return
north and wash out Thursday as an upper wave approaches from the
west. This will result in another round of showers and storms
Thursday afternoon and evening, with southern and eastern areas
once again favored for greatest storm coverage and heaviest rain
amounts.

A relative lull in convection is expected Friday into Saturday
afternoon before storm chances ramp up again late Saturday and
Saturday night as another upper wave moves across the area. A cold
front will follow the passage of this system, with drier weather
returning Sunday into next week as the upper level pattern changes
to a more northwest flow. There is still some uncertainty as to
whether we will be completely dry early next week, so just rode
with the NBM pops for now which keeps most of the area dry.
Temperatures through this period look to be near the seasonal
averages for late May.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Scattered thunderstorms continue to develop generally north of
I-40 in eastern OK. Storms are expected to continue gradually
expanding south and east through the morning, with areas of MVFr
conditions and locally IFR within strong cells. Should see a break
early this afternoon before additional strong storms develop from
NW AR into SE OK mid to late afternoon. Overall MVFR conditions
are expected to be more widespread by this evening with
additional rounds of showers and storms possible, mainly SE of
I-44.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  63  82  68 /  20  30  50  40
FSM   80  66  83  69 /  90  50  50  60
MLC   78  65  82  68 /  80  70  60  50
BVO   77  59  82  65 /  20  10  40  40
FYV   76  62  80  64 /  80  50  50  60
BYV   75  62  80  65 /  70  50  50  60
MKO   75  63  81  66 /  80  50  50  50
MIO   75  61  81  65 /  40  20  40  50
F10   74  63  81  67 /  70  40  60  50
HHW   82  66  82  68 /  80  80  60  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for OKZ049-053-072>076.

AR...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...14

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
532 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-231000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
532 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Mainly Southeast of Interstate 44.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...This Afternoon.

DISCUSSION...
Scattered thunderstorms are developing early this morning across
northeast Oklahoma, and will increase in coverage and intensity as
the day wears on, with a shift to the southeast with time as well
as a cold front moves through the area. Isolated severe storms
with mainly a large hail potential will be possible this morning,
but the severe threat will ramp up this afternoon from southeast
Oklahoma into western Arkansas. Large hail and damaging winds will
be the main severe weather threats this afternoon and evening. The
surface frontal boundary is forecast to move south into northeast
Texas by late this afternoon, but if it stalls a bit farther
north, a limited tornado threat may develop for a time near the
Red River. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible this
afternoon and evening from southeast Oklahoma into western
Arkansas which may result in localized flooding concerns.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
THURSDAY and FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SATURDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
MONDAY and TUESDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Another round of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected
Thursday afternoon and evening as an upper level storm system
moves across the area. Locally heavy rainfall will again be
possible at this time, especially from southeast Oklahoma into
western Arkansas where flooding will become an increasing concern.

Another significant round of storms may affect the area late
Saturday and Saturday night with a severe weather and heavy rain
threat.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1136 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

OKZ056-057-221700-
Craig OK-Nowata OK-
1136 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CRAIG AND SOUTHERN NOWATA
COUNTIES THROUGH NOON CDT...

At 1136 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Nowata, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Vinita...                         Nowata...
New Alluwe...                     Watova...
White Oak...                      Pyramid Corners...
Centralia...                      Centrailia...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 283 and 286.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3660 9574 3671 9577 3690 9515 3662 9509
TIME...MOT...LOC 1636Z 260DEG 42KT 3667 9567

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Mejia

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1140 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

OKZ049-075-076-221715-
Latimer OK-Pushmataha OK-Le Flore OK-
1140 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN PUSHMATAHA...SOUTH
CENTRAL LATIMER AND SOUTHERN LE FLORE COUNTIES THROUGH 1215 PM CDT...

At 1140 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 5 miles
southeast of Talihina, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Heavener...                       Talihina...
Talimena State Park...            Whitesboro...
Muse...                           Big Cedar...
Hodgen...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 PM CDT for
southeastern Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3460 9508 3481 9511 3494 9452 3463 9447
TIME...MOT...LOC 1640Z 260DEG 42KT 3470 9499

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Mejia

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1144 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

OKZ054>056-060>062-221715-
Tulsa OK-Osage OK-Rogers OK-Nowata OK-Washington OK-Mayes OK-
1144 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN ROGERS...SOUTHEASTERN
OSAGE...NORTHWESTERN MAYES...SOUTHERN WASHINGTON...SOUTHEASTERN
NOWATA AND NORTHEASTERN TULSA COUNTIES THROUGH 1215 PM CDT...

At 1144 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Vera, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Claremore...                      Skiatook...
Collinsville...                   Chelsea...
Oologah...                        Ramona...
Foyil...                          Avant...
Talala...                         Vera...
New Alluwe...                     Bushyhead...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 253 and 266.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3660 9543 3660 9536 3633 9536 3630 9619
      3655 9603 3663 9543
TIME...MOT...LOC 1644Z 260DEG 42KT 3648 9592

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Mejia

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