Alert archive / Oklahoma / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2024

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 437, NWS Tulsa, OK

October 30, 2024Ottawa County, Oklahoma

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Oct 30, 2024, 10:35 PM CDT for Ottawa County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 25 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Oct 30, 2024, 10:35 PM CDT (03:35 UTC)
Expired: Oct 30, 2024, 11:00 PM CDT
In force: 25 min
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

County Ottawa County, OK

The radar

The Tulsa radar (KINX), 100 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:39 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Oct 30, 5:56 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	9 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 3.6 hours before the alert went out and 90 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 133 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -71 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1061 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 47 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 216 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 297 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.1
Supercell composite: 1.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Oct 30, 9:10 PM CDT, 1 hour 25 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 30, 9:10 PM CDT, 1 hour 25 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
910 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 910 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

Storms along the main frontal boundary currently across Osage/Pawnee
counties also extend SW through C OK. Additional storms across NE OK,
with new development across SE OK are within a strengthening low level
jet. Strong to severe storms will continue through the evening, with
potential continuing into the overnight hours across SE OK and NW AR.
The tornado potential has lessened some, though embedded supercell potential
will continue within the main line into the overnight hours. We have locally
added several counties across SE OK into the tornado watch which runs through
midnight. Changes to the ongoing forecast have been minimal, as first period
PoPs are representative. Cooler temperatures to move in behind the front
late tonight, thus overnight lows look reasonable as well.

Updated ZFP/PFM/AFM already sent.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

Much cooler and quieter weather will settle into the area for
Thursday (Halloween) with northerly flow. High temperatures will
range from the mid 60s to low 70s. Temperatures for Trick- or-
Treating will be in the 50s with no rain expected. Friday will
warm up into the lower 70s but also be dry.

Our next storm cycle will begin Saturday as a deep and persistent
upper level settles into the southwest with ridging in the
southeast. This will promote moist and unstable southwest flow
over the area for several days. Multiple waves of rain and
thunderstorms will move through beginning Saturday afternoon.
There is some indication that severe weather may be possible with
the initial wave of storms Saturday, but if so, it would likely be
marginal.

The main issue will be the copious rainfall that is
expected Saturday through Tuesday. Ensemble guidance is still
uncertain with the exact placement and timing of individual waves,
but the big picture is of higher confidence. Most areas can expect
total rainfall in the 2-6" range. Some model guidance shows
localized higher totals if storms preferentially track over one
area more often. These details will be straightened out in the
days ahead, but the big picture and key takeaway is that a
dramatic pattern change will be unfolding with significant rains
ahead. Localized flash flooding and minor river flooding would be
expected given this amount of rainfall, with potentially greater
impacts depending on which basins are hit hardest.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

Line of strong to severe storms currently moving into portions of
northeast Oklahoma, will likely impact KBVO around 01Z and the
KTUL/KRVS area shortly before 03Z. Brief LIFR conditions appear
likely with very heavy rain/low visibilities around 1/2 mile.
Strong wind gusts of 35 to 45 knots also likely along the leading
edge. Latest CAMS suggest line of storms will persist overnight,
along southeast moving front, impacting NW AR/SE OK in the 05-07Z
time frame and at KFSM around 08Z. Still some uncertainties regarding
how long low clouds will linger behind front into Thursday, especially
across northwest Arkansas which may not clear until Thursday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  66  44  74 / 100   0   0   0
FSM   61  71  50  75 / 100  30   0   0
MLC   54  68  46  77 / 100   0  10  10
BVO   46  65  36  75 / 100   0   0   0
FYV   52  67  40  74 / 100  10   0   0
BYV   56  65  43  71 /  90  20   0   0
MKO   52  66  44  73 / 100   0   0   0
MIO   50  63  40  72 /  90   0   0   0
F10   49  66  41  75 /  90   0   0  10
HHW   60  73  52  74 /  90  30  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...12

Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 30, 4:53 PM CDT, 5 hours 42 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
453 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-311030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
453 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...
...A FEW TORNADOS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING MAINLY NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA... ...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight.

TORNADO.
    RISK...Elevated.
    AREA....Northeast Oklahoma
    ONSET....Early Evening

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Critical.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Early Evening.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Northeast Oklahoma.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...This Evening.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...This Evening.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Severe thunderstorms have developed along and ahead of
a cold front this afternoon across western and central sections of
Oklahoma. As storms track east-northeast and enter northeast
Oklahoma early this evening, they initially will be capable of
producing large hail, damaging winds, and possible a few tornadoes.
The highest tornado threat will be during the evening, mainly
along and northwest of Interstate 44 in northeast Oklahoma. As the
storms move further into eastern Oklahoma later this evening,
they are expected to congeal into a line. As this occurs,
damaging wind gusts will become the primary hazard, though a
limited embedded tornado threat will persist with storms as they
continue moving eastward through the remainder of eastern Oklahoma
and northwest Arkansas during the overnight hours. With most of
the severe weather expected after dark, please have multiple ways
to receive warnings in case one is issued for your area. Storms
may also produce heavy rainfall with half an inch to one and a
half inches of rain forecast across eastern Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas.

Additionally, strong south winds gusting 25 to 35 mph will
persist ahead of a cold front, especially northwest of Interstate
44 in northeast Oklahoma.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
THURSDAY...No Hazards.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SATURDAY through MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind
Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
After quiet weather on Thursday and Friday, the weather pattern
becomes more unsettled Friday night through early next week with
daily shower and thunderstorm chances returning. Widespread
heavy rainfall will be possible during this time, especially this
upcoming weekend. Additionally, at least a marginal threat of
severe weather is expected late this weekend and early next week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Oct 30, 8:34 PM CDT, 2 hours 1 minute before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
834 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

OKZ060-061-310200-
Tulsa OK-Rogers OK-
834 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN ROGERS AND
NORTHEASTERN TULSA COUNTIES THROUGH 900 PM CDT...

At 833 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a cluster of strong
thunderstorms extending from Tulsa to Owasso to Oologah, moving
northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Tulsa...                          Broken Arrow...
Claremore...                      Owasso...
Catoosa...                        Collinsville...
Verdigris...                      Oologah...
Foyil...                          Talala...
Tulsa International Airport...    Bushyhead...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 221 and 253.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for northeastern
Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3645 9543 3642 9543 3616 9570 3616 9576
      3610 9576 3602 9585 3608 9600 3643 9583
      3642 9581 3647 9581 3658 9576
TIME...MOT...LOC 0133Z 209DEG 36KT 3613 9591

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special weather statement, Oct 30, 8:40 PM CDT, 1 hour 55 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
840 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

OKZ073-075-310215-
Pittsburg OK-Latimer OK-
840 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN LATIMER AND CENTRAL
PITTSBURG COUNTIES THROUGH 915 PM CDT...

At 840 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 3 miles
southwest of Alderson, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Mcalester...                      Hartshorne...
Krebs...                          Crowder...
Alderson...                       Canadian...
Blocker...                        Arrowhead State Park...
Mcalester Regional Airport...     Haileyville...
Dow...                            Bache...
Featherston...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3479 9581 3520 9571 3520 9568 3522 9568
      3509 9535 3506 9535 3506 9534 3473 9563
TIME...MOT...LOC 0140Z 207DEG 37KT 3485 9572

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special weather statement, Oct 30, 8:51 PM CDT, 1 hour 44 minutes before

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special weather statement, Oct 30, 9:01 PM CDT, 1 hour 34 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
901 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

OKZ056-060>062-067-310230-
Tulsa OK-Rogers OK-Nowata OK-Mayes OK-Wagoner OK-
901 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT ROGERS...NORTHWESTERN MAYES...
SOUTH CENTRAL NOWATA...NORTHWESTERN WAGONER AND EAST CENTRAL TULSA
COUNTIES THROUGH 930 PM CDT...

At 900 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a cluster of strong
thunderstorms extending from Catoosa to west of Chelsea, moving
northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Tulsa...                          Claremore...
Owasso...                         Catoosa...
Verdigris...                      Chelsea...
Oologah...                        Foyil...
Talala...                         New Alluwe...
Watova...                         Taiwah...
Tiawah...                         Bushyhead...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 229 and 272.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for northeastern
Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3668 9562 3654 9533 3651 9533 3651 9526
      3608 9576 3616 9592
TIME...MOT...LOC 0200Z 213DEG 35KT 3623 9579

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special weather statement, Oct 30, 9:51 PM CDT, 44 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
951 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

OKZ054-055-059-060-310315-
Tulsa OK-Osage OK-Pawnee OK-Washington OK-
951 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE...SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON...SOUTHEASTERN PAWNEE AND NORTH CENTRAL TULSA COUNTIES
THROUGH 1015 PM CDT...

At 951 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 5 miles
north of Walnut Creek State Park, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Skiatook...                       Collinsville...
Hominy...                         Sperry...
Ramona...                         Ochelata...
Avant...                          Westport...
Vera...                           Walnut Creek State Park...
Wolco...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for northeastern
Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3665 9590 3636 9583 3616 9635 3616 9638
      3641 9643
TIME...MOT...LOC 0251Z 241DEG 41KT 3633 9629

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special weather statement, Oct 30, 10:06 PM CDT, 29 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1006 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

OKZ057-058-062-063-310330-
Craig OK-Delaware OK-Ottawa OK-Mayes OK-
1006 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CRAIG...
NORTHWESTERN DELAWARE...SOUTHERN OTTAWA AND NORTHEASTERN MAYES
COUNTIES THROUGH 1030 PM CDT...

At 1006 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Vinita, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Miami...                          Vinita...
Grove...                          Fairland...
Afton...                          Langley...
Bernice...                        Ketchum...
Bluejacket...                     Disney...
Big Cabin...                      Pensacola...
Cherokee State Park...            Bernice State Park...
Cleora...                         White Oak...
Narcissa...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 272 and 305.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for northeastern
Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3669 9463 3641 9516 3652 9533 3656 9533
      3691 9501
TIME...MOT...LOC 0306Z 230DEG 31KT 3662 9515

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 30, 7:02 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Washington	28 min
Oct 30, 7:14 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Osage, Pawnee	31 min
Oct 30, 7:28 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Nowata, Washington	32 min
Oct 30, 7:44 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Osage	31 min
Oct 30, 7:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Nowata, Washington	48 min
Oct 30, 8:03 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Osage, Pawnee	42 min
Oct 30, 8:19 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Osage, Pawnee	26 min
Oct 30, 8:34 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Rogers, Tulsa	26 min
Oct 30, 8:40 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Pittsburg	35 min
Oct 30, 8:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Osage, Pawnee, Tulsa, Washington	30 min
Oct 30, 8:51 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Pittsburg	24 min
Oct 30, 9:01 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Rogers	29 min
Oct 30, 9:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Creek, Osage, Pawnee, Tulsa	47 min
Oct 30, 9:23 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Craig, Mayes, Nowata, Rogers	52 min
Oct 30, 9:51 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Osage	24 min
Oct 30, 10:06 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Craig	24 min
Oct 30, 10:12 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Craig, Delaware, Ottawa	48 min
Oct 30, 10:26 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TSA	Delaware, Ottawa	29 min
Oct 30, 10:45 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Muskogee	30 min
Oct 30, 11:13 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Cherokee	32 min
Oct 30, 11:41 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Adair	34 min
Oct 30, 11:59 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TSA	Adair	17 min
Oct 31, 12:55 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	McIntosh, Muskogee	35 min
Oct 31, 12:19 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Washington	26 min
Oct 31, 12:25 AM CDT	Tornado Warning	TSA	Washington	27 min
Oct 31, 12:57 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Carroll	33 min
Oct 31, 1:18 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Carroll	27 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Oklahoma, 2024 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2024

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.