Severe Thunderstorm Warning 432, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
640 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of this afternoon )
Issued at 129 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

A surface pressure trough is tilted SW to NE across western OK into
eastern KS. South of this boundary, warm and humid southerly flow
continues. The warm and moist advection will result in a very
favorable convective environment for this afternoon and evening.
As deep ascent from the upper level low continues to spread over
the area, we will see isolated to scattered elevated convection,
and indeed this is already occurring. For the most part these
storms will be weaker, but is is possible one or two could produce
some marginally severe hail this afternoon.

The main event will occur this evening and overnight as the best
upper level lift overlays the cold front and the low level jet
becomes quite strong. Good instability with 1500-2000 J/Kg MUCAPE
will couple with very intense shear and low level helicity.
Initially discrete cells will result in all severe hazards,
including the risk for strong tornadoes, damaging winds, and large
hail. This will primarily be west and northwest of the area. Then as
the storms move into the CWA from the west, they will transition
into a line of storms. However, if cells are slow to congeal into
a line there is the risk for a strong tornado near Osage County.
With that said, as storms do merge into a line, the hazard threat
will shift to more of a QLCS tornado and damaging wind concern.
The tornado threat is expected to slowly weaken as storms move
into AR and southeast OK, but elevated moisture levels make it
uncertain how quickly the threat will end. Locally heavy rainfall
may also occur with a limited flash flood threat. In terms of
timing, these storms will move into northeast OK in the late
evening (6-10 PM), moving towards the I-44 corridor by 10 PM-12
AM, and then continuing southeast through the night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

Much cooler and quieter weather will settle into the area for
Thursday (Halloween) with northerly flow. High temperatures will
range from the mid 60s to low 70s. Temperatures for Trick- or-
Treating will be in the 50s with no rain expected. Friday will
warm up into the lower 70s but also be dry.

Our next storm cycle will begin Saturday as a deep and persistent
upper level settles into the southwest with ridging in the
southeast. This will promote moist and unstable southwest flow
over the area for several days. Multiple waves of rain and
thunderstorms will move through beginning Saturday afternoon.
There is some indication that severe weather may be possible with
the initial wave of storms Saturday, but if so, it would likely be
marginal.

The main issue will be the copious rainfall that is
expected Saturday through Tuesday. Ensemble guidance is still
uncertain with the exact placement and timing of individual waves,
but the big picture is of higher confidence. Most areas can expect
total rainfall in the 2-6" range. Some model guidance shows
localized higher totals if storms preferentially track over one
area more often. These details will be straightened out in the
days ahead, but the big picture and key takeaway is that a
dramatic pattern change will be unfolding with significant rains
ahead. Localized flash flooding and minor river flooding would be
expected given this amount of rainfall, with potentially greater
impacts depending on which basins are hit hardest.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

Line of strong to severe storms currently moving into portions of
northeast Oklahoma, will likely impact KBVO around 01Z and the
KTUL/KRVS area shortly before 03Z. Brief LIFR conditions appear
likely with very heavy rain/low visibilities around 1/2 mile.
Strong wind gusts of 35 to 45 knots also likely along the leading
edge. Latest CAMS suggest line of storms will persist overnight,
along southeast moving front, impacting NW AR/SE OK in the 05-07Z
time frame and at KFSM around 08Z. Still some uncertainties regarding
how long low clouds will linger behind front into Thursday, especially
across northwest Arkansas which may not clear until Thursday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  66  44  74 / 100   0   0   0
FSM   61  71  50  75 / 100  30   0   0
MLC   54  68  46  77 / 100   0  10  10
BVO   46  65  36  75 / 100   0   0   0
FYV   52  67  40  74 / 100  10   0   0
BYV   56  65  43  71 /  90  20   0   0
MKO   52  66  44  73 / 100   0   0   0
MIO   50  63  40  72 /  90   0   0   0
F10   49  66  41  75 /  90   0   0  10
HHW   60  73  52  74 /  90  30  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...12

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
453 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-311030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
453 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...
...A FEW TORNADOS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING MAINLY NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA... ...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight.

TORNADO.
    RISK...Elevated.
    AREA....Northeast Oklahoma
    ONSET....Early Evening

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Critical.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Early Evening.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Northeast Oklahoma.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...This Evening.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...This Evening.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Severe thunderstorms have developed along and ahead of
a cold front this afternoon across western and central sections of
Oklahoma. As storms track east-northeast and enter northeast
Oklahoma early this evening, they initially will be capable of
producing large hail, damaging winds, and possible a few tornadoes.
The highest tornado threat will be during the evening, mainly
along and northwest of Interstate 44 in northeast Oklahoma. As the
storms move further into eastern Oklahoma later this evening,
they are expected to congeal into a line. As this occurs,
damaging wind gusts will become the primary hazard, though a
limited embedded tornado threat will persist with storms as they
continue moving eastward through the remainder of eastern Oklahoma
and northwest Arkansas during the overnight hours. With most of
the severe weather expected after dark, please have multiple ways
to receive warnings in case one is issued for your area. Storms
may also produce heavy rainfall with half an inch to one and a
half inches of rain forecast across eastern Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas.

Additionally, strong south winds gusting 25 to 35 mph will
persist ahead of a cold front, especially northwest of Interstate
44 in northeast Oklahoma.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
THURSDAY...No Hazards.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SATURDAY through MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind
Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
After quiet weather on Thursday and Friday, the weather pattern
becomes more unsettled Friday night through early next week with
daily shower and thunderstorm chances returning. Widespread
heavy rainfall will be possible during this time, especially this
upcoming weekend. Additionally, at least a marginal threat of
severe weather is expected late this weekend and early next week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
611 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

OKZ054-302345-
Osage OK-
611 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL OSAGE COUNTY
THROUGH 645 PM CDT...

At 611 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 5 miles
east of Newkirk, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Grainola...                       Foraker...
Webb City...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for northeastern
Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9635 3689 9633 3680 9675 3700 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 2311Z 249DEG 43KT 3687 9695

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
702 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

OKZ054-055-310030-
Osage OK-Washington OK-
702 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL OSAGE AND SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM CDT...

At 702 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 5 miles
south of Barnsdall, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Bartlesville...                   Barnsdall...
Ochelata...                       Avant...
Osage Hills State Park...         Bartlesville Municipal Airport...
Okesa...                          Nelagoney...
Tallant...                        Wolco...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for northeastern
Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3673 9581 3668 9581 3636 9612 3644 9633
      3686 9614
TIME...MOT...LOC 0002Z 211DEG 41KT 3648 9618

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
714 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

OKZ054-055-059-310045-
Osage OK-Pawnee OK-Washington OK-
714 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT OSAGE...NORTHERN WASHINGTON AND
PAWNEE COUNTIES THROUGH 745 PM CDT...

At 713 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 6 miles southeast of Cedar Vale to 3 miles
northeast of Lake Mcmurtry. Movement was east at 65 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Pawhuska...                       Pawnee...
Hominy...                         Fairfax...
Shidler...                        Wynona...
Ralston...                        Burbank...
Blackburn...                      Maramec...
Elgin...                          Skedee...
Foraker...                        Bigheart...
Pearsonia...                      Hulah...
Sunset Lake...                    Osage Hills State Park...
Sooner Lake...                    Wah Sha She State Park...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for northeastern
Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9590 3626 9653 3621 9682 3625 9682
      3625 9692 3633 9693 3634 9703 3641 9703
      3700 9651
TIME...MOT...LOC 0013Z 249DEG 56KT 3707 9640 3622 9714

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
728 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

OKZ054>056-310100-
Osage OK-Nowata OK-Washington OK-
728 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL OSAGE...WASHINGTON
AND NORTHERN NOWATA COUNTIES THROUGH 800 PM CDT...

At 727 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a cluster of strong
thunderstorms from near Barnsdall to 5 miles west of Delaware,
moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Bartlesville...                   Dewey...
Barnsdall...                      South Coffeyville...
Copan...                          Ramona...
Ochelata...                       Delaware...
Avant...                          Lenapah...
Wann...                           Bartlesville Municipal Airport...
Okesa...                          Tallant...
Wolco...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for northeastern
Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3698 9541 3695 9541 3694 9543 3693 9543
      3641 9609 3649 9630 3700 9598 3700 9552
TIME...MOT...LOC 0027Z 214DEG 44KT 3663 9607

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
744 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

OKZ054-059-310115-
Osage OK-Pawnee OK-
744 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL OSAGE AND NORTHWESTERN
PAWNEE COUNTIES THROUGH 815 PM CDT...

At 744 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 3 miles
south of Sooner Lake, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Pawhuska...                       Pawnee...
Fairfax...                        Shidler...
Wynona...                         Ralston...
Burbank...                        Blackburn...
Skedee...                         Foraker...
Sooner Lake...                    Eastern Kaw Lake...
Webb City...                      Apperson...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for northeastern
Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3660 9704 3662 9705 3678 9678 3678 9675
      3680 9675 3692 9654 3649 9623 3625 9687
      3625 9692 3633 9693 3634 9703 3651 9703
      3651 9701 3653 9698 3655 9690 3658 9689
      3660 9692 3658 9698 3659 9704 3659 9706
TIME...MOT...LOC 0044Z 237DEG 34KT 3639 9705

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH