Severe Thunderstorm Warning 299, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1238 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 920 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Update mainly is for adding tornado watch 311 which will include
most of NE OK and far NW AR. Bulk of storm coverage is expected
to stay north of I 40 tonight, though isolated to widely scattered
storms that develop across SE OK and WC AR will still have severe
potential. Made some adjustments to PoPs through 06 based on
expected coverage, and just a few minor tweaks to PoPs in the
06-12z time frame. Overnight temperatures look reasonable at this
time.

Updated ZFP/AFM/PFM already sent

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Thunderstorms are expected to have waned and / or focused more
east of the local region by early Sunday. However, the cold front
associated with the passing wave will not clear western AR and SE
OK until late afternoon and conditions will become increasingly
unstable ahead of the boundary. Veered low level winds will limit
frontal convergence and overall storm coverage is likely to be
low, however at least isolated storms are possible along the
boundary by mid to late afternoon before the front clears the
forecast area to the east and south. Otherwise, dry weather and
warm weather will prevail west of the front. Sfc high pressure
builds across the region Monday providing a pleasant day area
wide.

The pattern transitions toward more northwesterly flow through the
southern Plains by Tuesday with daily thunderstorm complexes
likely to develop and track in or near the forecast area from
Tuesday night through Thursday. Locally heavy rainfall and at
least a limited risk of severe weather would accompany these
events.

By late week into next weekend the pattern reverts to more
southwesterly flow aloft and likely remains unsettled with daily
thunderstorm chances continuing.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024
Supercell continues to track east early this morning across far
northeast Oklahoma and will likely impact KXNA/KROG in the 06-07Z
time range. LIFR conditions will be likely with the potential for
severe gusts/large hail. Supercell located along the OK/KS state
line should remain north of KBVO. Additional storms are developing
across portions of eastern Oklahoma in strong low level jet and a
few of these storms could also briefly impact NW AR TAF sites
overnight. Otherwise, strong and gusty southwest winds will develop
during the day Sunday. VFR conditions will prevail through the
remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  62  87  62 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   91  66  89  63 /  20  20   0  10
MLC   91  64  89  62 /   0  10   0  10
BVO   88  58  86  58 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   87  61  85  59 /  20  10   0   0
BYV   88  61  84  59 /  30  10   0   0
MKO   90  62  85  60 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   86  59  83  59 /  10  10   0   0
F10   91  61  86  60 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   89  65  89  63 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...12

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
503 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-261015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
503 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight.

TORNADO.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma.
	ONSET...This evening.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...This evening.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Severe storms are underway across northwest Texas and
southwest Oklahoma, with additional development across the Texas and
Oklahoma panhandles late this afternoon. As these storms move east
towards central Oklahoma, the potential for severe thunderstorms
across parts of eastern Oklahoma remains in place later this
evening. The storms will likely be widely scattered, but will pose
the threat of large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes. As
activity moves further into eastern Oklahoma, storms are expected to
weaken some as they move into Arkansas. Further north, an organized
MCS that track east across southern Kansas may clip parts of far
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas late tonight. These storms
will carry mainly a damaging wind threat along with an isolated
tornado potential.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
MONDAY...No Hazards.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A couple of quiet days are expected for the remainder of the
holiday weekend. A few thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday
across far eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as a cold front
moves through, but will quickly shift eastward. Nightly
thunderstorm chances will return by mid week as northwest flow
aloft sets up and chances increase for storm complexes moving into
the region overnight. Some severe potential will likely exist on
those nights, along with the threat for heavy rainfall and
isolated flooding.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

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