Severe Thunderstorm Warning 295, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
930 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 920 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Update mainly is for adding tornado watch 311 which will include
most of NE OK and far NW AR. Bulk of storm coverage is expected
to stay north of I 40 tonight, though isolated to widely scattered
storms that develop across SE OK and WC AR will still have severe
potential. Made some adjustments to PoPs through 06 based on
expected coverage, and just a few minor tweaks to PoPs in the
06-12z time frame. Overnight temperatures look reasonable at this
time.

Updated ZFP/AFM/PFM already sent

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Thunderstorms are expected to have waned and / or focused more
east of the local region by early Sunday. However, the cold front
associated with the passing wave will not clear western AR and SE
OK until late afternoon and conditions will become increasingly
unstable ahead of the boundary. Veered low level winds will limit
frontal convergence and overall storm coverage is likely to be
low, however at least isolated storms are possible along the
boundary by mid to late afternoon before the front clears the
forecast area to the east and south. Otherwise, dry weather and
warm weather will prevail west of the front. Sfc high pressure
builds across the region Monday providing a pleasant day area
wide.

The pattern transitions toward more northwesterly flow through the
southern Plains by Tuesday with daily thunderstorm complexes
likely to develop and track in or near the forecast area from
Tuesday night through Thursday. Locally heavy rainfall and at
least a limited risk of severe weather would accompany these
events.

By late week into next weekend the pattern reverts to more
southwesterly flow aloft and likely remains unsettled with daily
thunderstorm chances continuing.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

The main focus this TAF period is to time potential for storm
impacts at the TAF sites this evening and overnight. Per latest
HRRR and WoFS, TEMPO groups were used where probs were greater for
storm impacts near the KS/MO borders. This would include the KBVO,
KXNA and KROG TAF sites. Storm potential was also higher at KMLC
per model data, so a TEMPO was used there also. There may also be
a period of MVFR cigs as well during the overnight. A front will
push thru on Sunday, with conditions at all sites returning to
VFR with gusty winds veering to the W/SW.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  89  62  87 /  50   0   0   0
FSM   73  91  66  89 /  40  20  20   0
MLC   72  91  64  89 /  30   0  10   0
BVO   67  88  58  86 /  60  10   0   0
FYV   69  87  61  85 /  50  20  10   0
BYV   68  88  61  84 /  50  30  10   0
MKO   71  90  62  85 /  30   0   0   0
MIO   67  86  59  83 /  60  10  10   0
F10   71  91  61  86 /  30   0   0   0
HHW   71  89  65  89 /  50  10  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
503 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-261015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
503 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight.

TORNADO.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma.
	ONSET...This evening.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...This evening.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Severe storms are underway across northwest Texas and
southwest Oklahoma, with additional development across the Texas and
Oklahoma panhandles late this afternoon. As these storms move east
towards central Oklahoma, the potential for severe thunderstorms
across parts of eastern Oklahoma remains in place later this
evening. The storms will likely be widely scattered, but will pose
the threat of large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes. As
activity moves further into eastern Oklahoma, storms are expected to
weaken some as they move into Arkansas. Further north, an organized
MCS that track east across southern Kansas may clip parts of far
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas late tonight. These storms
will carry mainly a damaging wind threat along with an isolated
tornado potential.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
MONDAY...No Hazards.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A couple of quiet days are expected for the remainder of the
holiday weekend. A few thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday
across far eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as a cold front
moves through, but will quickly shift eastward. Nightly
thunderstorm chances will return by mid week as northwest flow
aloft sets up and chances increase for storm complexes moving into
the region overnight. Some severe potential will likely exist on
those nights, along with the threat for heavy rainfall and
isolated flooding.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
830 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

OKZ054-059-260230-
Osage OK-Pawnee OK-
830 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMs WILL IMPACT NORTHERN OSAGE AND NORTH CENTRAL
PAWNEE COUNTIES THROUGH 930 PM CDT...

At 829 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 3 miles
southwest of Tonkawa, moving northeast at 55 mph. Other strong
thunderstorms were northwest of Grainola.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Pawhuska...                       Fairfax...
Barnsdall...                      Shidler...
Wynona...                         Burbank...
Grainola...                       Foraker...
Pearsonia...                      Southern Kaw Lake...
Webb City...                      Tallant...
Apperson...                       Pershing...
Nelagoney...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for northeastern
Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9639 3653 9614 3651 9701 3653 9698
      3655 9690 3658 9689 3660 9692 3658 9698
      3659 9705 3660 9704 3668 9706 3670 9703
      3668 9694 3675 9689 3674 9683 3677 9682
      3678 9675 3700 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 0129Z 239DEG 50KT 3665 9734

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

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