Severe Thunderstorm Warning 110, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
211 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Short-term severe weather and flash flood concerns dominate the
focus of the forecast today, with thunderstorm coverage expected
to increase through the rest of the afternoon and evening,
continuing well into Sunday. Thunderstorms are ongoing in western
Oklahoma, nearer to the dryline, with coverage also increasing in
central Oklahoma in the warm sector. CAMs continue to show the
warm sector activity expanding northeastward into eastern Oklahoma
and eventually western Arkansas mid to late afternoon into the
evening. Mesoanalysis and radar presentation would suggest that
northeast Oklahoma is at the greatest risk in the near term for
the bulk of this, with the rest of the forecast area following
toward evening. The expectation is that one or more lines of
storms will form to the west this evening and move eastward into
Sunday morning, as the upper level system moves into the Central
Plains. Forecast soundings are supportive of very large hail,
damaging winds and tornadoes this afternoon and evening, including
strong tornadoes, especially into northeast Oklahoma. While the
severe weather threat is not expected to completely diminish,
there should be a transition during the evening and into the
overnight toward a flash flood threat given unseasonably high
precipitable water values and potential for 2 to 5 inches -
locally 6 to 8 - of rain over a widespread area. The Flood Watch
has been expanded into all of eastern Oklahoma as well as
northwest and west central Arkansas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Thunderstorms producing heavy rain and at least a low chance for
severe weather will be ongoing across parts of eastern Oklahoma
and northwest and west central Arkansas, with an expected decrease
in coverage and intensity toward mid morning. Another round of
thunderstorms with severe weather potential is expected to develop
along the cold front/dryline Sunday afternoon and into the
evening, with a lesser but still existent potential for tornadoes
and very large hail. The Flood Watch may need to be extended in
time to account for this activity across eastern parts of the
watch area.

A short break in the active pattern is expected Monday and into
Tuesday, with a period of dry weather for much of those two days.
The dry weather will be short-lived with multiple rounds of
showers and thunderstorms, including some potential for severe
thunderstorms, mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

TSRA chances at any given site will remain low over the the first
8-10 hrs of the valid period, so will include VCTS to account for
isolated to scattered TSRA that develops out ahead of the main
convective area. This looks to impact the E OK sites after the
05-06z time period withe a period of MVFR cigs and IFR vsbys in
+TSRA( esp. the NE OK sites). AR sites will see the main
convective band after 09z-10z with a period of MVFR cigs and IFR
vsbys in TSRA that will diminish in the 12z-14z time frame. VFR
elements to prevail for the last portion of the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   63  77  55  80 / 100  80  10  10
FSM   66  77  61  82 /  70 100  50  10
MLC   65  76  60  82 / 100  90  10  10
BVO   61  77  51  78 /  90  70  10   0
FYV   63  74  57  80 /  80  90  50  10
BYV   63  73  57  78 /  60 100  60  10
MKO   63  74  58  79 /  90  90  10  10
MIO   62  73  54  76 / 100  90  30  10
F10   63  76  58  79 / 100  80  10  10
HHW   66  73  61  80 /  80  90  30  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-
     020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...23

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
100 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-280945-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
100 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT TONIGHT...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

TORNADO.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Mainly eastern Oklahoma.
	ONSET...This afternoon.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Mainly eastern Oklahoma.
	ONSET...This afternoon.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Mainly eastern Oklahoma.
	ONSET...This evening.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Critical.
	AREA...Areawide.
	ONSET...This afternoon.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Northeast Oklahoma and portions of Northwest Arkansas.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Areawide.
	ONSET...This Morning.

DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms are expected to develop this later this afternoon
over Oklahoma. The threat of severe weather is present across the
area, but the greater threat will be over eastern Oklahoma.
All severe hazards will be possible, including tornadoes, large hail,
and damaging winds.into the area from the west. This evening, additional
storms to the west will merge with ongoing activity, and will shift the
severe threat towards a heavy rain and flash flooding threat. The highest threat
remains across northeast Oklahoma, but all areas have at least some potential.
Total rainfall in the hardest hit areas may exceed several inches.

Continue to pay special attention to forecast updates considering
the ongoing dual threat of severe weather and flooding rains through
tonight.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Heavy rain will continue into Sunday across northwest AR before it
finally moves east. Additional strong to severe storms are possible
over southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Sunday afternoon.
Winds will remain breezy with gusts of 30-40 mph.

For the rest of the week we will see additional rounds of rain and
thunderstorms, including the threat of severe weather and heavy
rains for mid week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.