Tornado Warning 20, NWS Topeka, KS

656 
WWUS53 KTOP 302145
SVSTOP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
445 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

KSC117-131-302200-
/O.CON.KTOP.TO.W.0020.000000T0000Z-240430T2200Z/
Nemaha-Marshall-
445 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT FOR WEST
CENTRAL NEMAHA AND SOUTHEASTERN MARSHALL COUNTIES...

At 445 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Frankfort, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and two inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Frankfort, Vermillion, and Baileyville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3966 9643 3979 9642 3987 9618 3966 9615
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 269DEG 20KT 3969 9637 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.00 IN

$$

101

476 
WWUS53 KTOP 302152
SVSTOP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
452 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

KSC117-131-302200-
/O.CON.KTOP.TO.W.0020.000000T0000Z-240430T2200Z/
Nemaha-Marshall-
452 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT FOR WEST
CENTRAL NEMAHA AND EAST CENTRAL MARSHALL COUNTIES...

At 452 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Vermillion, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and two inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Vermillion.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3966 9634 3976 9634 3981 9617 3966 9615
TIME...MOT...LOC 2152Z 269DEG 20KT 3969 9632 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.00 IN

$$

101

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
241 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms developing this afternoon along a cold front will
quickly becoming strong to severe with large hail, damaging winds
and a few tornadoes possible.

- An active weather pattern continues Wednesday into Thursday and
again this weekend with persistent chances for thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Another afternoon and evening of severe weather is shaping up once
again across the central Plains as a mid-level wave approaches from
the west and has begun to eject into Nebraska as noted on water
vapor imagery. Surface analysis across Kansas shows a deep surface
trough and low over central Kansas with a cold front and dry line
extending south into southwestern Kansas. Strong warm sector WAA has
pushed 60 degree dewpoints as far north was eastern Nebraska with
mid-60 degree dewpoints beginning to make their way into east-
central Kansas. With ample afternoon warming, temperatures across
the area have reached the low to mid 80s and will be expected to
warm a few degrees further over the next several hours.

Over the next few hours, residual BL capping that is noted in the
TOP 18z sounding will slowly erode as the cold front approaches from
the west. MLCAPE values ranging from 2500-3500 J/kg, 0-6 km shear of
35-50 knots (higher values in northeastern Kansas and lower values
in central Kansas), 7.5-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates and increasing
low-level wind shear will be present ahead of the boundary late this
afternoon and evening, setting the stage for severe storms in
eastern Kansas. CAMs over the past 6 hours have been fairly
consistent in developing convection between the 21-23z timeframe
along the boundary draping from Seneca to Council Grove. Convection
should quickly intensify from there, zipping down the frontal
boundary into southeastern Kansas. Given the environment, very large
hail (up to 2+ inches), damaging winds (>70 mph) and a few tornadoes
will be possible with the strongest and most organized supercells.
Shear vector orientation in relation to the surface boundary should
keep convection isolated for several hours before the boundary
begins to move more southeast this evening promoting the congealing
of storms. Another thing that will need to be watched is how the LLJ
will impact ongoing convection into the evening hours. An increase
in 0-1 km and 0-3 km shear should point to an increase in tornadic
activity just after sunset. If convection can stay isolated enough
until then, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. With storms moving
rather quickly across the area tonight, not expecting a widespread
flooding concern. That said, as the front begins to move more
south/southeastward south of I-35, a localized flooding concern
could take shape, especially in areas that saw several inches of
rain the past week. FFG across this area is currently sitting around
1-2 inches, and with HREF QPF probabilities ranging from 0.75-1.5
inches, we could see localized flooding south of I-35. Issued a
Flood Watch for Anderson and Coffey counties as that seems to be the
area with the highest chances for hydro concerns.

By early Wednesday morning, the surface and 850mb boundaries will
stall across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma, keeping the
better QPF axis to our south. Throughout the day Wednesday, another
mid-level wave will deepen another lee cyclone in southwestern
Kansas and push the stalled boundary north as a warm front. Rain and
storm chances along the frontal boundary will continue for much of
the day Wednesday and might help to mitigate Wednesday evening's
severe weather chances. Given MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg and decent
wind shear, some elevated warm advection storms Wednesday could
become strong to marginally severe with hail being the main hazard.
By Wednesday afternoon, the surface low moving out of southwestern
Kansas could begin to develop convection along the dry line in far
south-central/central Kansas. This convection will race off to the
northeast and could impact portions of north-central Kansas
Wednesday evening and overnight into Thursday. There still remains a
fair amount of uncertainty with how well these storms will be able
to maintain their strength as they approach north-central Kansas
with Wednesday morning convection possibly stunting severe
parameters across the area. Any storms that can sustain themselves
will pose risks for large hail, damaging winds and an isolated
tornado. Confidence still is medium/high with all of the area having
a threat of heavy rainfall Wednesday afternoon into Thursday as
strong moisture convergence along the frontal boundary becomes
draped across the area. A Flood watch may be needed for this
timeframe.

Precipitation chances will begin to decrease into Friday
morning as the upper trough axis shifts to the east and surface
ridging builds into the area. A few more waves moving across the
Plains will keep mention of thunderstorms in the extended forecast
into early next week, so not many hints of many breaks in the active
weather appears likely.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Several aviation hazards over the TAF, first with winds this
afternoon and later with thunderstorm concerns. Winds will
remain gusty this afternoon out of the south, gusting upwards of
30 mph. A frontal boundary moving in from central Nebraska will
develop convection around the terminals between 22-00z this
evening, with better confidence in convection at KTOP and KFOE.
Storms will likely develop near KMHK and quickly move east.
Following the cold frontal passage, winds will shift to the
northwest, becoming calmer into Wednesday morning. Some rain and
thunderstorm chances will increase late Wednesday morning and
into the afternoon as a warm front pushes north.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 8 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday
morning for KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Griesemer

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
252 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-012000-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-
252 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Kansas, east central
Kansas, north central Kansas and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms developing along a frontal boundary will quickly become
strong to severe this afternoon and evening with all modes of severe
weather possible. Hail up to 2 inches, 70 mph wind gusts and a few
tornadoes are possible. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms will be possible throughout the day Wednesday along a
warm front with some storms becoming strong to marginally severe. The
main hazards will be hail. Later in the evening could see strong to
severe storms moving out of central Kansas that could pose a risk for
all severe weather modes. Several rounds of thunderstorms could
generate heavy rainfall and increase the potential for flooding and
flash flooding. Be sure to remain up to date with the latest forecast
information.

.SPOTTER MESSAGE

Weather spotters are encouraged to relay reports of hail, damaging
wind, tornadoes and flooding.

&&

More detailed information can be found at:
www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf

KSZ058-059-012000-
Coffey-Anderson-
252 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms developing along a frontal boundary will quickly become
strong to severe this afternoon and evening with all modes of severe
weather possible. Hail up to 2 inches, 70 mph wind gusts and a few
tornadoes are possible. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible.
A Flood Watch has been issued.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms will be possible throughout the day Wednesday along a
warm front with some storms becoming strong to marginally severe. The
main hazards will be hail. Several rounds of thunderstorms could
generate heavy rainfall and increase the potential for flooding and
flash flooding. Be sure to remain up to date with the latest forecast
information.

.SPOTTER MESSAGE

Weather spotters are encouraged to relay reports of hail, damaging
wind, tornadoes and flooding.

&&

More detailed information can be found at:
www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
323 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

KSZ010-302100-
Marshall-
323 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN MARSHALL COUNTY THROUGH
400 PM CDT...

At 323 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Blue Rapids, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Blue Rapids, Frankfort, and Waterville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3967 9624 3965 9624 3957 9673 3967 9681
      3988 9645
TIME...MOT...LOC 2023Z 241DEG 29KT 3964 9668

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

101

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
358 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0358 PM     Hail             Frankfort               39.71N 96.42W
04/30/2024  M1.75 Inch       Marshall           KS   Trained Spotter

&&

AJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
417 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0417 PM     Hail             5 E Olsburg             39.43N 96.52W
04/30/2024  E1.00 Inch       Pottawatomie       KS   Emergency Mngr

&&

AJ