Severe Thunderstorm Warning 91, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
627 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms developing this afternoon along a cold front will
quickly becoming strong to severe with large hail, damaging winds
and a few tornadoes possible.

- An active weather pattern continues Wednesday into Thursday and
again this weekend with persistent chances for thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Another afternoon and evening of severe weather is shaping up once
again across the central Plains as a mid-level wave approaches from
the west and has begun to eject into Nebraska as noted on water
vapor imagery. Surface analysis across Kansas shows a deep surface
trough and low over central Kansas with a cold front and dry line
extending south into southwestern Kansas. Strong warm sector WAA has
pushed 60 degree dewpoints as far north was eastern Nebraska with
mid-60 degree dewpoints beginning to make their way into east-
central Kansas. With ample afternoon warming, temperatures across
the area have reached the low to mid 80s and will be expected to
warm a few degrees further over the next several hours.

Over the next few hours, residual BL capping that is noted in the
TOP 18z sounding will slowly erode as the cold front approaches from
the west. MLCAPE values ranging from 2500-3500 J/kg, 0-6 km shear of
35-50 knots (higher values in northeastern Kansas and lower values
in central Kansas), 7.5-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates and increasing
low-level wind shear will be present ahead of the boundary late this
afternoon and evening, setting the stage for severe storms in
eastern Kansas. CAMs over the past 6 hours have been fairly
consistent in developing convection between the 21-23z timeframe
along the boundary draping from Seneca to Council Grove. Convection
should quickly intensify from there, zipping down the frontal
boundary into southeastern Kansas. Given the environment, very large
hail (up to 2+ inches), damaging winds (>70 mph) and a few tornadoes
will be possible with the strongest and most organized supercells.
Shear vector orientation in relation to the surface boundary should
keep convection isolated for several hours before the boundary
begins to move more southeast this evening promoting the congealing
of storms. Another thing that will need to be watched is how the LLJ
will impact ongoing convection into the evening hours. An increase
in 0-1 km and 0-3 km shear should point to an increase in tornadic
activity just after sunset. If convection can stay isolated enough
until then, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. With storms moving
rather quickly across the area tonight, not expecting a widespread
flooding concern. That said, as the front begins to move more
south/southeastward south of I-35, a localized flooding concern
could take shape, especially in areas that saw several inches of
rain the past week. FFG across this area is currently sitting around
1-2 inches, and with HREF QPF probabilities ranging from 0.75-1.5
inches, we could see localized flooding south of I-35. Issued a
Flood Watch for Anderson and Coffey counties as that seems to be the
area with the highest chances for hydro concerns.

By early Wednesday morning, the surface and 850mb boundaries will
stall across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma, keeping the
better QPF axis to our south. Throughout the day Wednesday, another
mid-level wave will deepen another lee cyclone in southwestern
Kansas and push the stalled boundary north as a warm front. Rain and
storm chances along the frontal boundary will continue for much of
the day Wednesday and might help to mitigate Wednesday evening's
severe weather chances. Given MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg and decent
wind shear, some elevated warm advection storms Wednesday could
become strong to marginally severe with hail being the main hazard.
By Wednesday afternoon, the surface low moving out of southwestern
Kansas could begin to develop convection along the dry line in far
south-central/central Kansas. This convection will race off to the
northeast and could impact portions of north-central Kansas
Wednesday evening and overnight into Thursday. There still remains a
fair amount of uncertainty with how well these storms will be able
to maintain their strength as they approach north-central Kansas
with Wednesday morning convection possibly stunting severe
parameters across the area. Any storms that can sustain themselves
will pose risks for large hail, damaging winds and an isolated
tornado. Confidence still is medium/high with all of the area having
a threat of heavy rainfall Wednesday afternoon into Thursday as
strong moisture convergence along the frontal boundary becomes
draped across the area. A Flood watch may be needed for this
timeframe.

Precipitation chances will begin to decrease into Friday
morning as the upper trough axis shifts to the east and surface
ridging builds into the area. A few more waves moving across the
Plains will keep mention of thunderstorms in the extended forecast
into early next week, so not many hints of many breaks in the active
weather appears likely.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Severe storms continue to move through the KTOP/KFOE terminals
over the next 1-2 hrs. All hazards are possible with these
storms. Should transition to VFR behind the storms with winds
from the NNW then transition to ESE into tomorrow morning. Low
to mid level clouds may build back into the area by late in the
period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Drake

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
252 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-012000-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-
252 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Kansas, east central
Kansas, north central Kansas and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms developing along a frontal boundary will quickly become
strong to severe this afternoon and evening with all modes of severe
weather possible. Hail up to 2 inches, 70 mph wind gusts and a few
tornadoes are possible. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms will be possible throughout the day Wednesday along a
warm front with some storms becoming strong to marginally severe. The
main hazards will be hail. Later in the evening could see strong to
severe storms moving out of central Kansas that could pose a risk for
all severe weather modes. Several rounds of thunderstorms could
generate heavy rainfall and increase the potential for flooding and
flash flooding. Be sure to remain up to date with the latest forecast
information.

.SPOTTER MESSAGE

Weather spotters are encouraged to relay reports of hail, damaging
wind, tornadoes and flooding.

&&

More detailed information can be found at:
www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf

KSZ058-059-012000-
Coffey-Anderson-
252 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms developing along a frontal boundary will quickly become
strong to severe this afternoon and evening with all modes of severe
weather possible. Hail up to 2 inches, 70 mph wind gusts and a few
tornadoes are possible. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible.
A Flood Watch has been issued.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms will be possible throughout the day Wednesday along a
warm front with some storms becoming strong to marginally severe. The
main hazards will be hail. Several rounds of thunderstorms could
generate heavy rainfall and increase the potential for flooding and
flash flooding. Be sure to remain up to date with the latest forecast
information.

.SPOTTER MESSAGE

Weather spotters are encouraged to relay reports of hail, damaging
wind, tornadoes and flooding.

&&

More detailed information can be found at:
www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
605 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0559 PM     Funnel Cloud     2 NNE Silver Lake       39.13N 95.84W
04/30/2024                   Shawnee            KS   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Spotter looking east from Maple Hill.
            Location estimated from radar data.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
629 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

KSZ038-039-054-055-010000-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Lyon-Osage-
629 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN SHAWNEE...
SOUTHEASTERN WABAUNSEE...OSAGE AND NORTHERN LYON COUNTIES THROUGH 700
PM CDT...

At 628 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Auburn to near Admire to near Americus.
Movement was east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor
         objects and vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Southern Topeka, Osage City, Carbondale, Richland, Auburn, Overbrook,
Lyndon, Burlingame, Scranton, Harveyville, Reading, Allen, Admire,
and Pomona Lake.

This includes Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 136 and 171.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for east central
Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3869 9551 3850 9567 3852 9635 3856 9635
      3871 9612 3894 9587 3892 9550
TIME...MOT...LOC 2328Z 266DEG 45KT 3890 9584 3867 9608 3854 9628

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
637 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0636 AM     Tornado          2 NW Grantville         39.10N 95.59W
04/30/2024                   Jefferson          KS   Trained Spotter

            Tornado along US24.

&&

AJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
644 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0643 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 NE Topeka             39.07N 95.63W
04/30/2024  M72 MPH          Shawnee            KS   Official NWS Obs

&&

AJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
646 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 ENE Topeka            39.07N 95.63W
04/30/2024  M86 MPH          Shawnee            KS   Official NWS Obs

&&

AJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
647 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0646 PM     Tornado          2 NW Grantville         39.11N 95.59W
04/30/2024                   Shawnee            KS   Public

&&

AJ