Severe Thunderstorm Warning 337, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
627 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms develop along a cold front this evening across
eastern Kansas, some becoming strong to severe.

- Cooler temperatures expected to end week with another warm period
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024

This afternoon across eastern Kansas has seen very gusty conditions
take place as mid-level troughing over the central Rockies begins to
eject into the Plains. PVA ahead of the positively-tilted shortwave
has deepened a lee cyclone across western Kansas, tightening
pressure gradients and helping an efficient belt of low-level
moisture to make its way into northeastern Kansas. Dewpoints this
morning started in the low to mid 40s and as of 2 PM, dewpoints
across the area have climbed into the mid 50s to mid 40s, south to
north respectively. WAA and moisture advection will continue ahead
of the surface trough and associated cold front until it slides
through the area later this afternoon and evening. Currently, the
surface boundary is situated across western Kansas, through north-
central Kansas. Expect temperatures this afternoon to warm into the
upper 80s area-wide with some hitting the low 90s. This will
approach records, see the climate section below for further details.

By later this afternoon and evening, the surface boundary will begin
to push its way across eastern Kansas, developing storms, some
becoming strong to severe. As we have seen efficient moisture
advection throughout the day today, SBCAPE values will range from
1000-1500 J/kg by the late afternoon across eastern Kansas. In
addition, influence from the ejecting shortwave will give way to
strong and deep shear values ranging from 40-50 knots. Given the
veering shear profiles and deep speed shear values, supercell
development will become possible with the most organized and
isolated convection. That said, there are a few things that may
throw a wrench into the severity of convection this evening. One, by
the time the boundary approaches eastern Kansas and parcels are able
to overcome residual BL capping, solar insolation will be coming to
an end as the sun sets. Instability will quickly fall below 1000
J/kg after sunset, thus diminishing any storm's available energy.
Second, while lapse rates will be modest and supportive (7-7.5C) for
severe and strong updrafts, high LCLs may make it difficult for some
updrafts to maintain the strength to overcome dry air entrainment
and shearing effects. Lastly, storm propagation vectors indicate
storms growing quickly upscale along the frontal boundary. This may
act to weaken some stronger convection as the ability for good
inflow into the storms gets disrupted. That said, there will likely
be a short window for strong to severe convection to occur, mainly
between 23z and 01Z while instability remains maximized and initial
storms that develop can remain isolated for a bit. Areas closer to
the triple point in far northeastern Kansas could see some better
chances of storms development and severity due to lower LCLs and
less capping and enhanced convergence in the low-levels. The frontal
boundary and storms exit east-central Kansas around 10-11 PM this
evening with clearing skies and CAA filtering in a cool and dry air
mass for the next few days.

Much cooler temperatures are expected behind the front. Highs Friday
and Saturday should finally be capped at near normal for this time
of the year, in the 60s. A warm-up is expected for the first half of
next week as an upper-level ridge develops overhead. Highs back in
the 80s are favored. Another trough may move through the Plains by
the middle of next week, bringing precipitation chances to the area
once again.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 627 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024

Convection should push across TOP and FOE over the next few
hours with some gusty winds and lower visibilities being the
main hazards. Storm chances at MHK look to be limited now that
the pre-frontal trough has moved through. VFR conditions are
expected by 04Z at all sites with veering winds and some
gustiness for much of the later portions of this forecast.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Poage

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
323 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-252030-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
323 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Kansas, east central
Kansas, north central Kansas and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Strong to severe storms are possible during the late afternoon and
early evening hours across northeast and east central Kansas. Large
hail and damaging wind are the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER MESSAGE

Weather spotters are encouraged to relay reports of hail, damaging
wind, tornadoes and flooding.

&&

More detailed information can be found at:
www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf

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