Severe Thunderstorm Warning 237, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
225 AM EST Sun Dec 29 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 223 AM EST Sun Dec 29 2024

All of the ingredients seem to be lining up fairly well for a severe
weather event this morning. Unfortunately, the faster scenario
discussed last night appears to be the winner and as such, the
higher severe risk scenario is likely. A low level jet has begun
strengthening across the area and is mixing down to the surface as
evidenced by increasingly gusty winds across the western zones.
Winds also remain east of south across the area even as the line of
storms gets very close, indicating quite a bit of directional shear
on top of the speed shear provided by the LLJ. In mid level water
vapor, a large trough appears to be swinging across southern LA into
MS/AL right now, which puts our area in a favorable position for
added lift over at least the next several hours. We are also under
divergence in the upper levels as seen in the latest 300mb analysis.
CAPE has increased over the past few hours and will continue to
increase ahead of the line of showers and storms. All of this to
say, a favorable setup is in place for a severe weather event this
morning with all modes of severe weather (damaging winds, tornadoes,
and hail) possible along with locally heavy rainfall. Although some
heavy rainfall is possible, flooding is not really anticipated since
most of the area has been so dry.

Expect the showers and storms to push eastward across the area
throughout the morning, with the severe threat potentially lessening
some after sunrise due to the mid and upper level support becoming
less favorable. Severe weather will still be possible, however, and
the tornado watch issued encompasses all the way to our border with
JAX for this reason.

Additionally, while hard to forecast, if the LLJ sticks around with
trailing stratiform rain in the wake of the storms, we could end up
seeing a wake low develop. This would cause gusty gradient winds
after the storms have long passed and may cause additional
wind damage and/or hinder cleanup efforts.

&&

.SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 223 AM EST Sun Dec 29 2024

After a foggy start Monday morning, a clearing sky should allow
temperatures to rocket back into the 70s despite the passages of
Sunday's cold front. Another warm day is in the offering Tuesday
with highs back in the 70s. Fog is possible again Tuesday night
ahead of another cold front, this time with more polar origins,
swinging through Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will help push
temperatures back to near seasonal normals to start 2025 on
Wednesday and cooler than normal to end the week.

Aloft, zonal H5 flow to start the week will be subtly disrupted by a
weak shortwave rushing through the Ohio Valley. This subtle
shortwave pushes a cold front through the area Tuesday night into
Wednesday. With little moisture return ahead of the front, rain
chances remain less than 15% across the board Tuesday night into
Wednesday. An H5 low developing over Hudson Bay will help push an H5
trough into the eastern half of the country and will bring daytime
highs back in the 50s back to the region Thursday and Friday.

Looking a little beyond the forecast period, the Climate Prediction
Center (CPC) has the area outlined in temperatures that have a 60%
to 80% chance of being below normal in the days 8 to 14 time period,
or the first full week of January. So, if you're a fan of colder
weather, it looks to return in the first half of January. The
question then becomes just how cold will it get? But it's a little
too far out to know for sure, but it is on our radar.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 AM EST Sun Dec 29 2024

Conditions are expected to deteriorate fairly quickly overnight
into the morning as a cold front pushes a swath of showers and
thunderstorms from west to east across the area. LLWS will be
possible ahead of the convection, but as the storms push in expect
IFR to even LIFR conditions at times along with gusty winds, hail,
and perhaps even a few tornadoes. Winds become westerly and
conditions return to VFR later today in the wake of the front.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 223 AM EST Sun Dec 29 2024

Moderate to fresh southerly breezes continue this morning ahead of a
cold front. A line of showers and thunderstorms, a few strong, are
moving from west to east this morning and will continue to do so
through the afternoon Waterspouts, very gusty winds, and hail are
all possible within the line of storms. Following the front,
moderate westerly breezes take over this afternoon before subsiding
tonight into Monday as high pressure builds in. Winds turn
southwesterly Monday night into Tuesday ahead of another cold front
Tuesday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 223 AM EST Sun Dec 29 2024

Fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms, some severe, are
expected this morning ahead of an approaching cold front. This
system should clear the area by late afternoon or early evening,
with westerly winds in its wake. Low dispersions will be possible on
Monday with high pressure overhead, but they will quickly increase
to high dispersions on Tuesday as the winds increase ahead of the
next cold front. A beneficial wetting rain is expected with the
activity today, and despite the cold front(s) humidity is expected
to remain above critical thresholds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 223 AM EST Sun Dec 29 2024

The fast moving nature of today's system should prevent any
significant hydrological concerns. Very isolated flooding cannot be
ruled out in poor drainage or urban areas but with widespread
rainfall amounts generally around or less than one inch no concerns
are anticipated.

After today's event, rain chances remain out of the forecast, so
flooding is not anticipated in the coming days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the
office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   74  50  71  53 /  90   0   0  10
Panama City   73  51  70  58 /  90   0   0  10
Dothan        73  46  70  52 /  80   0   0   0
Albany        73  46  70  50 /  90   0   0   0
Valdosta      73  50  72  51 /  90   0   0  10
Cross City    72  54  74  53 /  90  10   0  10
Apalachicola  71  53  67  57 /  90   0   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ750-752-
     770-772.

&&

NEAR TERM...Merrifield
SHORT TERM...Reese
LONG TERM....Reese
AVIATION...Merrifield
MARINE...Reese
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...Reese