Alert archive / Arkansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2024

Mesoscale Discussion 46

January 11, 202444 counties in Arkansas; McCurtain County, Oklahoma; 8 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 11, 2024, 8:28 PM CST for 44 counties in Arkansas; McCurtain County, Oklahoma; 8 counties in Texas. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jan 11, 2024, 8:28 PM CST (02:28 UTC)
Expired
Jan 11, 2024, 10:30 PM CST
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch possible
Chance of a watch
40%
All 53 counties

Calhoun County, AR, Clark County, AR, Cleburne County, AR, Cleveland County, AR, Columbia County, AR, Conway County, AR, Crawford County, AR, Dallas County, AR, Faulkner County, AR, Franklin County, AR, Garland County, AR, Grant County, AR, Hempstead County, AR, Hot Spring County, AR, Howard County, AR, Independence County, AR, Jackson County, AR, Jefferson County, AR, Johnson County, AR, Lafayette County, AR, Little River County, AR, Logan County, AR, Lonoke County, AR, Miller County, AR, Montgomery County, AR, Nevada County, AR, Newton County, AR, Ouachita County, AR, Perry County, AR, Pike County, AR, Polk County, AR, Pope County, AR, Prairie County, AR, Pulaski County, AR, Saline County, AR, Scott County, AR, Searcy County, AR, Sebastian County, AR, Sevier County, AR, Stone County, AR, Van Buren County, AR, White County, AR, Woodruff County, AR, Yell County, AR, McCurtain County, OK, Bowie County, TX, Camp County, TX, Cass County, TX, Franklin County, TX, Hopkins County, TX, Morris County, TX, Red River County, TX, Titus County, TX

The radar

The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 120 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:28 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Shreveport, LA (KSHV), launched 00:00Z, 2.5 hours before the alert went out and 217 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Shreveport, LA at 00:00Z on 2024-01-12Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 413 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Shreveport, LA at 00:00Z on 2024-01-12The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 289 square meters per square second.1939587897117136156Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
413 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-10 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1157 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
72 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
289 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
493 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.7
Supercell composite
4.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 11, 9:56 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCBradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleburne, Cleveland, Columbia and 34 more6 hr
Jan 11, 11:44 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCalhoun, Clark, Columbia, Conway, Dallas, Faulkner and 19 more2 hr
Jan 12, 1:13 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClay, Craighead, Crittenden, Cross, Greene, Lee and 3 more2 hr
Jan 12, 2:41 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleveland, Columbia, Dallas and 21 more94 min
Jan 12, 3:33 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAshley, Chicot, Desha, Lee, Phillips87 min
Jan 12, 3:57 AM CSTTornado WatchSPCArkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Clark and 26 more7 hr
Jan 12, 6:14 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Ashley, Chicot, Crittenden, Cross, Desha and 5 more91 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2024Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2024Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2024Every mesoscale discussion in 2024

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.