Alert archive / Virginia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2024

Mesoscale Discussion 1021

May 27, 202414 counties in Maryland; 28 counties in North Carolina; 61 counties in Virginia

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 27, 2024, 4:49 PM EDT for 14 counties in Maryland; 28 counties in North Carolina; 61 counties in Virginia. It was in force for 86 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 27, 2024, 4:49 PM EDT (20:49 UTC)
Expired
May 27, 2024, 6:15 PM EDT
In force
86 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Tornado watch 335
All 103 counties

Anne Arundel County, MD, Baltimore County, MD, Calvert County, MD, Charles County, MD, City of Baltimore, MD, Dorchester County, MD, Howard County, MD, Kent County, MD, Montgomery County, MD, Prince George's County, MD, Queen Anne's County, MD, Saint Mary's County, MD, Somerset County, MD, Talbot County, MD, Beaufort County, NC, Bertie County, NC, Camden County, NC, Chowan County, NC, Craven County, NC, Currituck County, NC, Edgecombe County, NC, Franklin County, NC, Gates County, NC, Greene County, NC, Halifax County, NC, Hertford County, NC, Hyde County, NC, Johnston County, NC, Lenoir County, NC, Martin County, NC, Nash County, NC, Northampton County, NC, Pasquotank County, NC, Perquimans County, NC, Pitt County, NC, Tyrrell County, NC, Vance County, NC, Wake County, NC, Warren County, NC, Washington County, NC, Wayne County, NC, Wilson County, NC, Amelia County, VA, Arlington County, VA, Brunswick County, VA, Caroline County, VA, Charles City County, VA, Chesterfield County, VA, City of Alexandria, VA, City of Chesapeake, VA, City of Colonial Heights, VA, City of Emporia, VA, City of Fairfax, VA, City of Falls Church, VA, City of Franklin, VA, City of Fredericksburg, VA, City of Hampton, VA, City of Hopewell, VA, City of Manassas, VA, City of Manassas Park, VA, City of Newport News, VA, City of Norfolk, VA, City of Petersburg, VA, City of Poquoson, VA, City of Portsmouth, VA, City of Richmond, VA, City of Suffolk, VA, City of Virginia Beach, VA, City of Williamsburg, VA, Dinwiddie County, VA, Essex County, VA, Fairfax County, VA, Gloucester County, VA, Goochland County, VA, Greensville County, VA, Hanover County, VA, Henrico County, VA, Isle of Wight County, VA, James City County, VA, King and Queen County, VA, King George County, VA, King William County, VA, Lancaster County, VA, Louisa County, VA, Lunenburg County, VA, Mathews County, VA, Mecklenburg County, VA, Middlesex County, VA, New Kent County, VA, Northampton County, VA, Northumberland County, VA, Nottoway County, VA, Powhatan County, VA, Prince George County, VA, Prince William County, VA, Richmond County, VA, Southampton County, VA, Spotsylvania County, VA, Stafford County, VA, Surry County, VA, Sussex County, VA, Westmoreland County, VA, York County, VA

The radar

The Norfolk radar (KAKQ), 20 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Wallops Is Stn, VA (KWAL), launched 12:00Z, 8.8 hours before the alert went out and 158 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Wallops Is Stn, VA at 12:00Z on 2024-05-27Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 320 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Wallops Is Stn, VA at 12:00Z on 2024-05-27The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 51 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
320 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-116 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
757 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
23 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
51 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
63 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
1.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

023 
ACUS11 KWNS 272049
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272049 
VAZ000-MDZ000-NCZ000-DCZ000-272215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1021
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Areas affected...portions of eastern North Carolina and eastern
Virginia

Concerning...Tornado Watch 335...

Valid 272049Z - 272215Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 335 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 335.
Large hail and damaging gusts remain a concern. The best chance for
tornadoes would be closer to the coastline ahead of ongoing storms.

DISCUSSION...Multicells and transient supercells persist across
northeastern NC and are moving northeast toward southeast VA. At the
moment, these are the most robust storms across eastern NC/VA,
though an increase in thunderstorm coverage is possible later this
afternoon. Given widespread 1000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and 40+ kts of
effective bulk shear, most thunderstorms should maintain a
multicellular or transient supercell mode through the afternoon.
While a tornado or two cannot be ruled out anywhere across Tornado
Watch 335 in eastern NC/VA, the best chance for tornadoes appears to
be far southeast VA/northeast NC closer to the coast, where backed
low-level winds are contributing to slightly larger low-level
hodographs.

..Squitieri.. 05/27/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...

LAT...LON   35287618 35107687 35097749 35227810 35597877 38577787
            39197739 39497704 39557671 39477624 38787584 37327586
            35967591 35287618

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 26, 8:44 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCCharles, Frederick, Montgomery, Prince George's, Washington3 hr
May 26, 10:18 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCarroll, Charles, Frederick, Howard, Montgomery, Prince George's and 2 more87 min
May 27, 11:53 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnne Arundel, Baltimore, Calvert, Caroline, Carroll, Cecil and 16 more2 hr
May 27, 1:42 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCCaroline, Kent, Queen Anne's, Talbot7 hr
May 27, 3:39 PM EDTTornado WatchSPCAnne Arundel, Baltimore, Calvert, Carroll, Cecil, Charles and 11 more7 hr
May 27, 7:40 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnne Arundel, Baltimore, Calvert, Caroline, Cecil, Harford and 7 more2 hr
May 26, 8:27 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlexander, Burke, Cabarrus, Caldwell, Catawba, Cleveland and 19 more93 min
May 26, 10:05 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlamance, Chatham, Durham, Franklin, Harnett, Johnston and 7 more85 min
May 26, 10:43 PM EDTTornado WatchSPCCherokee, Clay7 hr
May 27, 3:47 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCherokee, Clay, Graham, Haywood, Jackson, Macon and 3 more118 min
May 27, 6:13 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCGaston, Mecklenburg, Union2 hr
May 27, 2:37 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlamance, Anson, Beaufort, Bertie, Bladen, Brunswick and 47 more83 min
May 26, 11:06 PM EDTTornado WatchSPCDickenson, Lee, Scott, Wise, City of Norton7 hr
May 27, 3:05 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDickenson, Lee, Russell, Scott, Washington, Wise and 2 more55 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2024Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2024Mesoscale Discussions in Maryland, 2024Every mesoscale discussion in 2024

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.