Alert archive / New York / Mesoscale Discussions in 2024

Mesoscale Discussion 1013

May 27, 20247 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 27, 2024, 11:53 AM EDT for 7 states. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 27, 2024, 11:53 AM EDT (15:53 UTC)
Expired
May 27, 2024, 2:00 PM EDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch likely
Chance of a watch
80%
All 152 counties

Kent County, DE, New Castle County, DE, Sussex County, DE, Anne Arundel County, MD, Baltimore County, MD, Calvert County, MD, Caroline County, MD, Carroll County, MD, Cecil County, MD, Charles County, MD, City of Baltimore, MD, Dorchester County, MD, Frederick County, MD, Harford County, MD, Howard County, MD, Kent County, MD, Montgomery County, MD, Prince George's County, MD, Queen Anne's County, MD, Saint Mary's County, MD, Somerset County, MD, Talbot County, MD, Washington County, MD, Wicomico County, MD, Worcester County, MD, Atlantic County, NJ, Bergen County, NJ, Burlington County, NJ, Camden County, NJ, Cape May County, NJ, Cumberland County, NJ, Essex County, NJ, Gloucester County, NJ, Hudson County, NJ, Hunterdon County, NJ, Mercer County, NJ, Middlesex County, NJ, Monmouth County, NJ, Morris County, NJ, Ocean County, NJ, Passaic County, NJ, Salem County, NJ, Somerset County, NJ, Sussex County, NJ, Union County, NJ, Warren County, NJ, Bronx County, NY, Broome County, NY, Cayuga County, NY, Chemung County, NY, Chenango County, NY, Cortland County, NY, Delaware County, NY, Fulton County, NY, Greene County, NY, Hamilton County, NY, Herkimer County, NY, Jefferson County, NY, Kings County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Madison County, NY, Montgomery County, NY, Nassau County, NY, New York County, NY, Oneida County, NY, Onondaga County, NY, Orange County, NY, Oswego County, NY, Otsego County, NY, Queens County, NY, Richmond County, NY, Rockland County, NY, Schoharie County, NY, Schuyler County, NY, Seneca County, NY, St. Lawrence County, NY, Sullivan County, NY, Tioga County, NY, Tompkins County, NY, Ulster County, NY, Wayne County, NY, Westchester County, NY, Yates County, NY, Adams County, PA, Berks County, PA, Bradford County, PA, Bucks County, PA, Carbon County, PA, Chester County, PA, Columbia County, PA, Cumberland County, PA, Dauphin County, PA, Delaware County, PA, Franklin County, PA, Juniata County, PA, Lackawanna County, PA, Lancaster County, PA, Lebanon County, PA, Lehigh County, PA, Luzerne County, PA, Lycoming County, PA, Monroe County, PA, Montgomery County, PA, Montour County, PA, Northampton County, PA, Northumberland County, PA, Perry County, PA, Philadelphia County, PA, Pike County, PA, Schuylkill County, PA, Snyder County, PA, Sullivan County, PA, Susquehanna County, PA, Tioga County, PA, Union County, PA, Wayne County, PA, Wyoming County, PA, York County, PA, Accomack County, VA, Arlington County, VA, Caroline County, VA, City of Alexandria, VA, City of Charlottesville, VA, City of Fairfax, VA, City of Falls Church, VA, City of Fredericksburg, VA, City of Manassas, VA, City of Manassas Park, VA, City of Winchester, VA, Clarke County, VA, Culpeper County, VA, Essex County, VA, Fairfax County, VA, Fauquier County, VA, Frederick County, VA, Greene County, VA, King George County, VA, Loudoun County, VA, Louisa County, VA, Madison County, VA, Northumberland County, VA, Orange County, VA, Page County, VA, Prince William County, VA, Rappahannock County, VA, Richmond County, VA, Spotsylvania County, VA, Stafford County, VA, Warren County, VA, Westmoreland County, VA, Berkeley County, WV, Jefferson County, WV

The radar

The Binghamton radar (KBGM), 97 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:55 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 3.9 hours before the alert went out and 241 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Albany, NY at 12:00Z on 2024-05-27Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 333 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Albany, NY at 12:00Z on 2024-05-27The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 225 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
333 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
669 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
40 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
225 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
330 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.3
Supercell composite
3.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 27, 1:42 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCKent, New Castle, Sussex7 hr
May 27, 7:40 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCKent, New Castle, Sussex2 hr
May 26, 8:44 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCCharles, Frederick, Montgomery, Prince George's, Washington3 hr
May 26, 10:18 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCarroll, Charles, Frederick, Howard, Montgomery, Prince George's and 2 more87 min
May 27, 3:39 PM EDTTornado WatchSPCAnne Arundel, Baltimore, Calvert, Carroll, Cecil, Charles and 11 more7 hr
May 27, 4:49 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnne Arundel, Baltimore, Calvert, Charles, Dorchester, Howard and 8 more86 min
May 27, 4:40 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBurlington, Camden, Gloucester, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex and 6 more95 min
May 26, 11:06 PM EDTTornado WatchSPCDickenson, Lee, Scott, Wise, City of Norton7 hr
May 27, 3:05 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDickenson, Lee, Russell, Scott, Washington, Wise and 2 more55 min
May 27, 2:37 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrunswick, Charles City, Dinwiddie, Greensville, Isle of Wight, Lunenburg and 17 more83 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2024Mesoscale Discussions in Pennsylvania, 2024Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2024Every mesoscale discussion in 2024

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.